The NBA regular season is almost here, which means it’s time to look at the latest MVP odds and decide who’s worth backing before tipoff. Betting on player awards is one of the best ways to stay engaged all season, especially if you’re already tracking futures like the NBA Championship or this year’s NBA Picks.

Below, we’ll break down the MVP favorites, the best value plays, and a few long shots who could shock the world in 2026.

NBA MVP Odds

Check out the latest NBA MVP odds courtesy of the top sports betting sites.

The top of the board looks familiar. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic are expected to duel all year after finishing 1–2 last season, while Luka Doncic lurks with a chance to win his first trophy.

If you’re betting on NBA awards, it’s a good time to follow the trends from the best handicappers or compare numbers on our full NBA odds page.

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NBA MVP Favorites

Let’s take a closer look at the upcoming NBA MVP race and the current crop of betting favorites to win this prestigious award:

Nikola Jokic (+220)

Nikola Jokic enters the 2025-26 season as the clear favorite for a reason. He’s finished first or second in MVP voting in each of the last five years and continues to post video-game numbers that make his case nearly automatic. Last season, Jokic averaged 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 10.2 assists — career highs across the board — yet still lost out to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander after Denver slipped to the No. 4 seed. History says team record matters in MVP voting, which is the only thing keeping him from another trophy.

Denver should be stronger this time around. With Aaron Gordon healthier and new depth from Cam Johnson, Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas, the Nuggets have reloaded for another top-three finish in the West. That extra support could push Jokic’s assist numbers even higher while lowering the nightly scoring load. When Denver wins 60% or more of its games, Jokic’s all-around dominance becomes too hard for voters to ignore.

The advanced metrics keep telling the same story. The Nuggets were +10.5 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the floor last year and –8.5 when he sat — an 18-point swing that underlines just how valuable he is. He’s had an on/off net rating above +16 in four straight seasons, a level of impact no other player has sustained. Simply put, Denver turns into a title contender only when Jokic is running the show.

Even with voter fatigue always looming, Jokic’s blend of production, efficiency, and consistency makes him nearly impossible to deny. If the Nuggets climb back into the top three of the conference, it’s hard to see anyone else matching his statistical resume or overall influence. Unless Denver stumbles badly, this feels like the year Jokic joins the rare club of four-time NBA MVP winners.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+275)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off one of the greatest all-around seasons we’ve seen from a guard in decades. The Thunder star became the first player since Michael Jordan to win a scoring title, MVP, Finals MVP, and championship in the same season — a historic run that cemented him as the league’s premier two-way guard. Averaging over 30 points per game for the third straight year while shooting 51% or better from the field, SGA’s blend of volume and efficiency has made him nearly unguardable.

What truly sets Gilgeous-Alexander apart is his consistency. He rarely has off nights, scoring 30 or more in 49 of 82 games last year while maintaining the same pace in the postseason. He’s mastered the mid-range, gets to the line at will, and controls tempo like a veteran point guard while shouldering one of the NBA’s highest usage rates (34.8%). That control makes him both a scorer and facilitator – the heart of Oklahoma City’s top-three offense.

The biggest challenge for SGA this year may be the narrative. Voters often look for a “fresh story,” and repeating as MVP is notoriously difficult. With Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein healthy, plus more depth around him, OKC may not need Shai to carry the same load as last season. That could slightly dampen his counting stats even if the Thunder remain the league’s best team.

Still, Gilgeous-Alexander’s floor is incredibly high. If he claims another scoring title and the Thunder finish atop the Western Conference again, he’ll have a real chance to go back-to-back. But if his numbers mirror or slightly trail those of Jokic or Doncic, it’ll be hard to convince voters to give him consecutive MVPs — even after one of the best guard seasons of the modern era.

Luka Doncic (+380)

Luka Doncic might be the most intriguing MVP bet on the board this year. After joining the Lakers in the middle of last season, Doncic now finds himself as the centerpiece of a team desperate to win in what could be LeBron James’ final run. With James sidelined early in the year, Doncic will have every opportunity to post monster numbers while carrying Los Angeles through the first month. His 28.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 7.7 assists per game from last season prove he’s already elite – and with improved conditioning, he may finally be ready to reach the next level.

For the first time in his career, Doncic is in peak shape. After years of criticism about his fitness, he attacked the offseason with a new commitment to training, slimming down, and improving both his stamina and quickness. Reports from EuroBasket praised his leadership and dominance with the Slovenian national team, showing a sharper, more focused version of Luka. Lakers coach JJ Redick said Doncic is “motivated by winning” and “in the best head space of his career,” which bodes well for both his production and the team’s success.

The MVP formula for Doncic is simple: win games and stay healthy. He’s flirted with the award multiple times, including a top-three finish in 2024, but team record and injuries always got in the way. If the Lakers can land a top-three seed in the West, Doncic’s stat line alone will make him a frontrunner. The narrative is also on his side. This is a superstar taking over one of the NBA’s biggest franchises in his prime.

Doncic’s combination of scoring, rebounding, and playmaking gives him one of the most complete offensive profiles in the league. If he maintains his conditioning and delivers a strong start while James recovers, he could separate himself early in the MVP race. The only thing standing between Doncic and his first MVP might be durability – because everything else, from motivation to opportunity, is firmly in place.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1100)

Giannis Antetokounmpo might not be the favorite this year, but he’s far from finished in the MVP race. The two-time winner reaffirmed that he’s “locked in” with the Bucks heading into the new season, committed to leading Milwaukee back to contention after a few disappointing playoff exits. His loyalty and drive remain unmatched, and he’s still one of the few players in the league capable of anchoring both an elite offense and defense on any given night.

Last season, Giannis averaged 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game on better than 60% shooting — absurd efficiency even by his standards. With Damian Lillard now gone, the Bucks will lean on him more than ever to handle the ball and generate offense. That could push his scoring and assist numbers even higher, especially with new addition Myles Turner helping stretch the floor and clear space in the paint.

Voter fatigue has worked against Giannis in recent years, but his consistency is impossible to ignore. He’s finished top-four in MVP voting for seven straight seasons, a run of dominance few players in history can match. If Milwaukee bounces back into the top tier of the Eastern Conference, Giannis will once again be near the top of every ballot.

The Bucks may not have the same depth as contenders like Boston or Oklahoma City, but that only strengthens Giannis’s case. If he carries Milwaukee to 50-plus wins with another statistical masterpiece, a third MVP would feel like a return to form — proof that the Greek Freak remains one of the game’s most unstoppable forces.

NBA MVP Betting Value

We think the following players offer betting value to win the NBA MVP based on their current odds and projected seasons.

Anthony Edwards (+2000)

Anthony Edwards is only 24 and sitting at sixth on the odds board, which is exactly the profile you want for a breakout MVP ticket. The path is clear if Minnesota lands a top-three seed and Edwards adds more table-setting to his scoring punch. If the Wolves win big while he drives the offense, the narrative writes itself.

His regular-season playmaking dipped last year to 4.5 assists with turnovers nudging up to 3.2 per game, but the postseason told a different story. Edwards read traps better and averaged 5.5 assists in the playoffs while still carrying the scoring load. That growth as a creator is the swing skill for his MVP case.

The bar at guard is high after SGA’s 32.7 points per game and MVP run, while Edwards finished fourth in scoring at 27.6. He doesn’t need to chase 33 a night, but a small bump in volume and efficiency paired with five to six assists would pop on ballots. A fast start matters too, as Minnesota was 22–21 through 43 games last year before catching fire down the stretch.

Opportunity arrives right away with the season opener on October 22 against Portland. If Edwards sets the tone as both lead scorer and primary playmaker while the Wolves rack wins from day one, +2000 turns into one of the best value holds on the board. This is the year he can jump from All-NBA to real MVP talk.

Victor Wembanyama (+1500)

Wemby is already a nightly problem on defense and his offense keeps leveling up. He put up 24.3 points, 11.0 boards, and a league-best 3.8 blocks across 46 games last season while improving his free-throw and three-point rates. Give him 65 healthy games, and those numbers play in every MVP room.

The Spurs look more competitive around him. San Antonio added stretch bigs like Kelly Olynyk and Luke Kornet, kept the core wings, and drafted Dylan Harper and Carter Bryant to juice creation. If the group stays healthy, this is their best shot at real progress since 2018-19.

Wembanyama’s path is simple. Maintain elite rim protection, bump the scoring to the mid-20s, and keep the assists and steals trending up. A 25-10-3 blocks line on a winning team turns him from buzz to ballot.

The only box left is team success. If San Antonio hangs around the Play-In and Wemby clears the games threshold, voters will have a hard time ignoring a two-way force who warps both ends. At +1500, you are betting on talent meeting timeline a year early.

The Top NBA MVP Longshot

Amen Thompson (+5000) might be the longest shot on the MVP board, but he’s also one of the most explosive young players in the league. His blend of size, athleticism, and defensive range gives Houston a Swiss Army knife on both ends. If the Rockets surprise with a top-three finish in the West, Thompson’s versatility could make him the face of that rise.

At just 22, Thompson averaged 14.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game last season — rare balance for a guard. He was the only player in the league to hit those marks while shooting above 55% from the field. His All-Defensive First Team nod as a sophomore shows he’s already a disruptor who swings games with energy plays.

Houston’s addition of Kevin Durant changes the calculus. Thompson doesn’t need to lead in scoring — he needs to be the connective tissue that powers the Rockets’ two-way identity. Surrounded by Durant, Alperen Sengun, and Jabari Smith Jr., he’ll have more room to attack, rebound, and initiate transition offense.

It’s nearly impossible for a role-spanning wing to win MVP this early, but Thompson’s athletic ceiling keeps him on the radar. If Houston’s surge continues and his numbers take another leap toward 18-9-5 with elite defense, the +50000 ticket becomes one of the most entertaining long shots in the league.

NBA MVP Predictions

Victor Wembanyama looks ready to make the leap from prodigy to perennial MVP threat. After averaging 24.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 3.8 blocks while transforming the Spurs’ defense, he’s shown he can dominate both ends of the floor. San Antonio’s front office surrounded him with capable shooters and veterans, easing his offensive burden while giving him more freedom to create. If the Spurs crack the top eight in the West, voters will have a hard time ignoring a 7’6” unicorn anchoring a playoff team.

His case mirrors early-career Giannis: freakish numbers, elite efficiency, and visible growth every month. With a full offseason to refine his jumper and passing, Wembanyama could become the league’s first true offense-defense MVP in a decade. If he clears 65 games and the Spurs stay competitive, the narrative, numbers, and highlight reel will all align, making Wemby the smart pick to win his first MVP at just 21 years old.

Bet: Victor Wembanyama (+1500)

Recent NBA MVP Winners

The following is a list of the most recent NBA MVP winners: