2026 Men’s NCAA South Regional Odds and Predictions

The South Region looks strong at the top and uncomfortable in the middle. Florida earned the 1-seed and enters as the betting favorite, but this is not a clean, breeze-through bracket. Houston and Illinois both have real regional-winning upside, and teams like Vanderbilt, Nebraska and VCU make the path more complicated than the seed lines alone suggest.

That is what stands out most on this board. Florida has the safest profile, Houston gets the regional weekend in its own city, and Illinois has a real case as the best number among the top-end contenders. This is a region where the best team might still win, but getting there could be messy.

That makes price and path the two biggest questions. The favorite is clear, the middle tier has bite, and there are a couple of numbers worth a longer look before the market tightens.

Before we break down the odds and top contenders, make sure to check out the latest College Basketball Championship odds and get expert College Basketball Picks to stay ahead of the action.

Where Is The NCAA South Regional Being Played?

The South Region’s first- and second-round games are being played in Tampa, Florida, at Benchmark International Arena, in Greenville, South Carolina, at Bon Secours Wellness Arena, and in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, at Paycom Center. Florida, Clemson and Iowa open in Tampa, North Carolina and Illinois open in Greenville, and Nebraska, Vanderbilt, Saint Mary’s and Houston all begin tournament play in Oklahoma City.

NCAA South Regional Final

The South Regional Sweet 16 and Elite Eight are set for Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, with the regional final scheduled for March 28, 2026. The winner of the South advances to the Final Four at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, where it will face the East Region champion in the national semifinal.

NCAA South Regional Odds

Check out the latest Men’s NCAA South Regional odds courtesy of the best sports betting sites:

Florida sits where you would expect as the top seed and shortest price, but Houston and Illinois are close enough to keep this from feeling like a one-team region. Nebraska and Vanderbilt give the middle of the board some life, and once you get past the top three, the South starts to look deep enough to create a few bracket problems before the favorite gets to Houston.

For expert analysis, check out the best handicappers section.

March Madness Starts Here

Advanced Data Insights

Get Free Trial

Men’s NCAA South Regional Favorites

The following teams are considered the favorites to win the NCAA South Regional:

Florida (+165)

Florida is the 1-seed, the SEC regular-season champion, and the most stable team on this board. The Gators went 26-7, finished 16-2 in conference play, and entered the SEC tournament on a 12-game winning streak before Vanderbilt knocked them out in the semifinals.

The selling point is simple. Florida’s frontcourt and rebounding profile travel, and that matters in a region where games are unlikely to come easy. Thomas Haugh is the key name, and the bigger betting case is that Florida can still control games even if the perimeter shot is not there.

The concern is down the road. A likely Elite Eight meeting with Houston would come in Houston, and Florida no longer has last year’s elite perimeter shot creation to bail it out late. Even so, this is still the cleanest mix of seed, path and reliability on the board.

Houston (+250)

Houston landed on the 2-line, went 28-6, finished 14-4 in Big 12 play, and reached the conference tournament final before losing to Arizona. The Cougars beat BYU and Kansas in Kansas City, so the recent form is still solid even without the trophy.

This is a team built around veteran backcourt depth and low-turnover offense, and the regional-site angle matters here. Getting the second weekend in Houston is a real edge, especially in a bracket where comfort and crowd support can make close games feel smaller.

The issue is the number versus the draw. Illinois is a dangerous potential Sweet 16 opponent, and this version of Houston is viewed a notch below last year’s national-run group. The price is fair, but it is not quite generous enough to be the best buy.

Illinois (+310)

Illinois comes in as the 3-seed after going 24-8 and finishing 15-5 in Big Ten play. The Illini closed the regular season with a road win at Maryland, then let a 15-point second-half lead get away in an overtime loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten quarterfinals.

That late stumble is part of the reason the number stays playable. Illinois has real offensive ceiling, high-end shot-making, and a lead guard in Keaton Wagler who gives the team a higher gear than most 3-seeds. On pure strength, this looks like a team that may be better than its line in the bracket suggests.

But the path is harsh. A likely Sweet 16 date with Houston in Houston is the toughest built-in draw concern attached to any of the top South contenders. That keeps Illinois from being the safest play, though it still has one of the more interesting prices in the region.

Nebraska (+1100)

Nebraska is the 4-seed after a 26-6 season and a second-place tie in the Big Ten at 15-5. The profile is strong on paper, and the Cornhuskers have enough balance to justify being in the second tier of this market.

The strength is clear. Nebraska plays with a high-volume three-point attack, protects the ball, and brings a defensive profile that gives it a chance against better athletes. Pryce Sandfort is the key piece, and the overall formula is the kind that can survive a bracket game or two.

Still, the number asks a real leap of faith. Nebraska has never won an NCAA tournament game, and a likely second-round matchup with Vanderbilt is no gift. Respect the season, but this is a tougher click at +1100 than the seed line suggests.

Men’s NCAA South Regional Betting Value

The following men’s college basketball teams offer betting value based on their current NCAA South Regional odds:

Vanderbilt (+1100)

Vanderbilt looks like the clearest value team in the middle of the board. The Commodores are a 5-seed, but they arrive after beating Florida in the SEC semifinals and pushing through to the conference tournament final, which makes the seed feel a little lighter than the résumé.

Tyler Tanner gives Vanderbilt a backcourt anchor, and the broader case is that this team has already shown it can handle top-level competition. That matters in a region where the middle tier has to prove more than just first-round viability.

The risk is obvious. A 5-seed path is demanding, and even if Vanderbilt clears McNeese, the likely next steps are Nebraska and then one of the region’s true powers. The number is interesting because the talent and recent form are good enough to justify a shot.

Saint Mary’s (+3500)

Saint Mary’s is the more aggressive value angle. The Gaels are only a 7-seed, but they have a clear identity and the kind of tempo control that can make a better-seeded opponent uncomfortable very quickly.

Joshua Dent, Paulius Murauskas and Mikey Lewis give Saint Mary’s enough shot-making and execution to be dangerous if the games stay on its terms. That is the appeal at +3500. You are buying a style that can shorten games and create upset pressure.

The downside is that the margin is thin. Saint Mary’s was bounced by Santa Clara in the WCC semifinals, and even a clean first weekend likely leads to Houston. That is why the number stays long.

The Top NCAA South Regional Longshot

VCU is the longshot worth a look at +15000. This is not a random dart throw. VCU won 16 of its last 17 games, repeated as Atlantic 10 tournament champion, and enters the bracket with the kind of form that makes a favorite uncomfortable.

The appeal is that the Rams are deep, experienced, and capable enough from the perimeter to string together more than one upset if the bracket opens. That is exactly what you want from a true Cinderella ticket. The reason the number is still so long is that the path remains brutal. VCU would still need to get through North Carolina, likely Illinois, and then a regional heavyweight. But if you want one real chaos play in this bracket, this is the one.

NCAA South Regional Predictions

Florida is still the safest option because it has the 1-seed, the most reliable round-to-round profile, and a style built on rebounding and interior control. Houston deserves respect because of the regional site, and Illinois may be the best value among the top three, but Florida has the fewest obvious ways to fail early.

Illinois is the better value swing if you want a slightly longer number with real title equity inside the region. But the best overall betting case still lands on Florida because the price is short without feeling prohibitive, and the path is more manageable than it first looks.

Bet: Florida (+165)