It’s early, but the road to the 2026 NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament is already taking shape. Bluebloods are reloading, transfer-portal stars are reshaping rosters overnight, and the country’s top freshmen classes are already making early statement wins as the season tips off.

From early juggernauts like UConn and South Carolina to value plays deeper down the board, this year’s title chase feels more open than it has been in years. Below, we’ll break down the latest championship odds, identify the top favorites, find some dark-horse value picks, and give our prediction for who cuts down the nets next April.

Let’s take a look at the latest NCAA Women’s Basketball Championship odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites – and make our 2026 Women’s National Championship predictions.

Women’s NCAA Basketball Championship Odds

Check out the latest NCAAW Basketball Championship odds:

Parity is beginning to settle into the women’s game. And with multiple programs now aggressively stacking talent through the portal, this year’s board is tighter than usual at the top with three teams in striking distance of each other. Will UConn or South Carolina win another championship? Keep reading below to see our NCAAW predictions and how they compare with the best handicappers!

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Women’s College Basketball Championship Favorites

The following women’s programs are considered the odds-on favorites to cut down the nets as National Champions in 2026:

UConn Huskies (+180)

UConn enters this season as the betting favorite for good reason — and multiple national analysts flat-out believe the Huskies might actually be better than the team that just won it all. The loss of Paige Bueckers would normally signal a step backwards, but the program has enough returning shot-creation, veteran tournament experience, and interior size that expectations haven’t dipped at all. In fact — the argument is that this roster is deeper, healthier, and more balanced than the 2024-25 squad that won the national title while dropping just three games.

What makes these odds feel justified is what they’ve added on top of what they already have. The addition of Wisconsin transfer Serah Williams gives Geno Auriemma a plug-and-play All-League frontcourt presence — even though UConn already had a potential national player of the year candidate in Strong. And a fully healthy Azzi Fudd could give UConn two All-Americans in the same lineup. That combination — size + shotmaking + proven postseason experience — is why books aren’t discounting them at all. They have enough built-in scoring equity to survive off shooting alone, but now add elite interior pressure and depth.

The pathway also sets up well. If UConn does what they usually do and runs the Big East again, their non-conference resume should position them for a No. 1 seed — which historically correlates directly with Final Four advancement probability. And if the same semifinal group returns again — UConn won’t be the team that benefits from “experience shock.” UCLA and Texas both struggled under the bright lights last year. South Carolina didn’t play well against UConn in the championship game. UConn was the one team in that four that looked composed — and now returns the highest percentage of late-stage experience. Combine that with the talent upgrades — and that’s why their title pricing is as short as it is — and still arguably justified.

South Carolina Gamecocks (+300)

South Carolina is once again priced right near the top of the board — and the reasoning is obvious: nobody in the sport has been more consistently in the final weekend than Dawn Staley’s program. Three national championship game appearances in the last four seasons and five straight Final Fours is a level of consistency that simply doesn’t exist anywhere else in the women’s game right now. Staley is entering her 18th season, and the expectation in Columbia isn’t “can they make the tournament?” — it’s whether this group can once again reach 30 wins and play for another title. Books are treating them like a Final Four probability more than a hypothetical — because all recent evidence says they’re an automatic part of that tier.

This year’s personnel shift also supports that pricing. South Carolina added the nation’s leading scorer from last year, Ta’Niya Latson, who averaged 25.2 points per game at Florida State. Latson doesn’t need to carry that same usage here, but her elite shot creation gives Staley the kind of perimeter alpha most teams simply don’t have access to. The Gamecocks also gained 6’6 center Madina Okot via transfer — she posted 17 points and 15 rebounds in the exhibition and provides rim protection and post scoring that last year’s roster lacked. Combine those additions with sophomore Joyce Edwards — who dropped 27 points in the same exhibition — and South Carolina’s top-end scoring upside is clearly higher than last year.

The schedule also reinforces why their odds sit where they do. They’ll see multiple top-10 matchups early — including Texas, Oklahoma, Duke, and UCLA — which means if this roster hits the ground fast, their price will almost certainly shorten before January. SEC play does them no favors either — there are SEC landmines everywhere (Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU) — but South Carolina historically survives those stretches better than anyone. The bottom line is this: South Carolina’s odds reflect a program with the best blend of proven tournament floor + roster upgrade. Staley’s team is built to be in Phoenix. The only real question is whether they break through again — or simply make another Final Four.

UCLA Bruins (+450)

UCLA enters this season priced right behind UConn and South Carolina because they didn’t just make a Final Four last year — they did it with the core pieces that are back again. The Bruins went 34–3, set a program record for wins, reached the national semifinals, and didn’t lose a single foundational player to the portal. The biggest difference between UCLA and the other top-tier contenders is that this roster has already played on the final weekend and stays intact. That continuity — Final Four reps + elite returning usage — is the single most predictive model for March success in the women’s game.

The roster composition also supports why books have them in that top cluster. UCLA brings back a National Player of the Year contender in Lauren Betts — 20.2 points, 9.5 rebounds — and they add two major scoring/pop pieces on top of that: graduate transfer Gianna Kneepkens (Utah, 19.3 ppg) and freshman Sienna Betts. They also get Charlisse Leger-Walker back healthy after an ACL rehab year — a massive addition considering she averaged 13.2 points and 6.5 boards in her last full season. It’s extremely rare to return Final Four production and then add more proven scoring and frontcourt skill.

The reason oddsmakers are bullish is simple — UCLA isn’t projecting growth, they’re compounding it. They were already a complete team last season, with inside scoring (Betts), veteran guard play (Kiki Rice), and switchable wings (Gabriela Jaquez). Now they layer in more shotmaking, more lineup flexibility, and more size. And because this group has already been on the sport’s biggest stage — they don’t have the “moment shock” disadvantage they had vs UConn in April. If UConn and South Carolina represent “known champions” — UCLA is the program with the clearest, highest-upside path to join that group this season — and their odds reflect that.

Texas Longhorns (+850)

Texas’ odds reflect a program that finally broke through a season ago — Final Four, third-most wins in school history — and returns with unfinished business. Vic Schaefer navigated the SEC gauntlet in Year 1 with poise, toughness, and elite execution, and the market clearly trusts that formula to scale again. This is the most momentum the Longhorns have carried into a season in more than two decades, and this year has a different tone: last year was about proving they belonged in that tier again … this year is about finishing the job.

The roster justifies the pricing. Texas returns consensus SEC Preseason Player of the Year Madison Booker — who Schaefer calls cerebral, unselfish, and the rare wing who enjoys the assist as much as the bucket — alongside All-SEC guard Rori Harmon.

They are surrounded by legitimate rotation depth, including four impact transfers (Teya Sidberry, Breya Cunningham, Ashton Judd, Lovisa Asbrink Hose) plus two freshmen. Add in internal growth candidates like Jordan Lee (last year’s leading scorer vs South Carolina in the national semifinal), Bryanna Preston, and Justice Carlton — and this is one of the most balanced guard-forward builds in the country.

Oddsmakers also like the blend of continuity + upside. Texas checks every March box — star guard play, a centerpiece scorer/initiator, defensive identity, and lineup versatility. Schaefer already knows the blueprint — he’s used this exact toughness-first structure to reach a title game before at Mississippi State — and Texas now has both the returning talent and added scoring depth to raise the ceiling. If that freshman/sophomore core hits — especially Lee’s Year-2 jump — Texas is absolutely live to make back-to-back Final Four runs … and this time they won’t be sneaking up on anyone.

Best NCAAW Basketball Championship Betting Value

The following women’s programs offer the best betting value based on roster structure and current price:

TCU Horned Frogs (+4000)

TCU is no longer the hunter, and that’s exactly how Mark Campbell wants it. Last season was the most successful season in school history: Big 12 regular season champions, first-ever Big 12 postseason tournament title, and an Elite Eight run. That’s the resume of a team that isn’t sneaking up on anyone anymore, and their odds reflect that market correction. Campbell flat-out said it at Big 12 Media Day — “pressure is a privilege” — and this roster has been built to play with that expectation now, not chase it.

Roster-wise, TCU again leaned into its identity as the portal capital of women’s basketball. The Horned Frogs have brought in 18 transfers across three cycles under Campbell, including 10 new players this offseason — highlighted by former Notre Dame All-American Olivia Miles, one of the biggest additions anywhere in the country. TCU also returns Donovynn Hunter up front and 6’1 Taylor Bigby on the wing, while graduate guard Maddie Scherr — who missed last year with a back injury — is available again. Aaliyah Roberson is the notable loss (ACL), but TCU added size and shooting to keep Campbell’s spread pick-and-roll template fully intact. With Marta Suarez (Cal), Kennedy Basham (Arizona State), Taliyah Parker (Texas A&M) and Clara Silva (Kentucky) now in the mix — this roster has both depth and matchup flexibility.

This is not a fluke-year profile, this is sustainable contender structure. The Horned Frogs only leave Fort Worth twice before conference play, and open Big 12 play on Dec. 20 against Kansas State — a schedule setup that should allow the chemistry to settle before the grind hits. Miles gives TCU a true late-possession engine — few teams in the country have a guard who has already won at a National Player of the Year level. Combine that with Campbell’s track record of instant-impact roster rebuilds and the Big 12 familiarity advantage they now have — and TCU’s odds have legitimate Final Four equity again. This isn’t last year’s Cinderella — this is a built-to-last heavyweight.

NC State Wolfpack (+5000)

NC State has been one of the most consistent March programs in the country, with six straight Sweet 16s and a Final Four in 2024, but this year’s roster flips into the youth era with no seniors returning. Wes Moore said it plainly, the leadership responsibility now shifts to younger pieces. Guards Zoe Brooks and Zamareya Jones already proved last March that they are capable of being high-usage options, and both step directly into featured roles. The Wolfpack will also need 6’6 sophomore Tilda Trygger and 6’5 freshman Lorena Awuou to stabilize the interior over the course of the season.

They will not get the luxury of easing in. Moore intentionally stacked one of the toughest early schedules in the country, with Tennessee, USC and TCU all in the first 12 days of the season. That stretch should immediately reveal whether NC State is ready to maintain the standard it has established under Moore. The NCAA Tournament ceiling is still in play, but this group has to grow up very fast.

Women’s College Basketball Championship Longshot

North Carolina’s (+7500) Courtney Banghart enters Year 7 with two Sweet 16 appearances in the last four seasons, and a deeper NCAA breakthrough remains the next step. UNC lost roughly 60 percent of its scoring, and the Tar Heels added six new players, including key frontcourt additions Ciera Toomey and Blanca Thomas. Those pieces are expected to help solve last year’s biggest issue which was consistent post production.

Banghart still has a high-end lead guard in Reniya Kelly, who is the most established creator on the roster. UNC’s incoming group also includes Nyla Harris from Louisville and Elina Aarnisalo from UCLA, both of whom should play real minutes right away. This team still has the talent to remain in the ACC’s upper tier. The season will likely come down to how quickly this new collection of players meshes into a stable rotation.

Women’s College Basketball Championship Predictions

If you want the strongest mix of floor and ceiling without taking the shortest price, South Carolina at +300 is the play. Dawn Staley’s program has five straight Final Fours and three title-game trips in the last four seasons, and this year’s roster added real firepower: national scoring leader Ta’Niya Latson on the perimeter and 6’6 rim protector Madina Okot up front, with Joyce Edwards stepping into a bigger role. That combination tightens their late-game shot creation while preserving the defense, depth, and rebounding that always travel in March.

UConn deserves favorite status and is never a bad bet at any reasonable number. But if you’re looking for the best blend of price and repeatable path, South Carolina gives you elite continuity, proven postseason reps, and upgraded scoring at a better return than the chalk. At +300, the Gamecocks offer true title equity with a payout that still makes sense.

Bet: South Carolina (+300)

Recent NCAAW Basketball Championship Winners

The following is a list of the most recent NCAAW Basketball Champions: