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On Saturday, July 19, boxing legend Manny Pacquiao returns to the ring for the first time in four years as he takes on Mario Barrios for the WBC welterweight title. This event will take place live on PPV from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Pacquiao (62-8-2, 39 KOs) is trying to defy the odds at 46-years-old. This is his first bout since a unanimous decision loss to Yordenis Ugas in August, 2021. Pacquiao went 3-1 to close out his illustrious career, until now.

Barrios (29-2-1, 18 KOs) last competed in November 2024, where he went to a split draw with Abel Ramos. However, Barrios retained the WBC welterweight championship. He’s 3-1-1 in his last five bouts and was the interim WBC welterweight champ before full elevation around the time of the Ramos fight.

The Pacquiao vs. Barrios Amazon Prime Video PPV event is set to begin at 8pm ET. However, the ringwalks for the main event is not expected to occur until 11pm ET.

Let’s take a look at the latest Manny Pacquiao vs. Mario Barrios odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Manny Pacquiao vs. Mario Barrios predictions.

Manny Pacquiao vs. Mario Barrios Preview

Check out the latest Pacquiao vs. Barrios tale of the tape:

Manny Pacquiao Recent Fights

As a longtime fan of Manny Pacquiao, I was surprised and concerned when hearing of his return to boxing after four years away from the sport. At 46, Pacquiao is well past his prime. And, yet, the politician, boxer and karaoke superstar believes he still has what it takes to succeed in the sport:

“I’m so excited for this fight because I want to prove to the fans that Manny Pacquiao is still there. And it’s nice to be back. The fire in my eyes, in my heart, is still there. But they said ‘yes you can fight, you still have that power and speed and you are dedicated’. Because I’m a disciplined person.”

If there’s any man other than George Foreman that can return to the ring at such an advanced age for the sport of boxing, it’s Pacquiao. However, that doesn’t mean he will succeed in this fight and it doesn’t mean he should be fighting a world champion.

Pacquiao went 3-2 in his last five pro fights before retiring, which we thought was the end of his amazing career. As we learned, it wasn’t the end but only a hiatus.

His last fight was against Ugas and he lost via unanimous decision with the scores of 112-116, 112-116, and 113-115. Prior to that bout he defeated Keith Thurman via split decision for his third win in a row.

Pacquiao also beat Adrien Broner in January 2019, via unanimous decision and Lucas Martin Matthysse via 7^th round TKO in July 2018. These three wins followed a unanimous decision loss to Jeff Horn, which was questionable at best.

He lost the WBO welterweight title to Horn. It was a belt that he had won in November 2016, after beating Jessie Vargas via unanimous decision.

Manny Pacquiao Odds

Pacquiao opened as a +470 underdog for this return fight. He now sits at a range of +220 to +285. In his last bout, Pacquiao was a -357 to -500 favorite over Ugas. Prior to that, he was a -142 to -165 favorite against Thurman. The last time he was an underdog before this weekend’s fight was against Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2015.

Mario Barrios Recent Fights

Mario Barrios is 3-1-1 in his five fights since moving up to welterweight. He left the super featherweight division after losing to Gervonta Davis in June 2021.

Keith Thurman greeted him with a loss in the welterweight division back in February 2022. Following that unanimous decision defeat, Barrios would win three fights in a row.

He defeated Jovanie Santiago via 8^th round TKO, Ugas via unanimous decision, and Fabian Andres Maidana via unanimous decision. Then came the Ramos fight that ended in a split draw.

Barrios is confident in his chances this weekend. He commented on how to beat Pacquiao:

“Timing always beats speed, and I have great timing. I have fast hands and fast feet, too. I just choose not to use it all the time. I have faith in everything I am preparing. The main thing is not to show him too much respect. I don’t want to let him get into his rhythm. I’m not trying to take rounds off. I’m going to work on our game plan from the opening round.”

Mario Barrios Odds

Barrios opened as a -750 favorite against Pacquiao and has now settled in a range of -300 to -400. This is his third consecutive bout where he’s the betting favorite. The last time he was an underdog, was in 2023, when he fought Ugas. Barrios closed as a +160 to +200 odds.

Manny Pacquiao vs. Mario Barrios Predictions

Barrios is the bigger fighter of the two. He’s nearly five inches taller than Pacquiao and has a four-inch reach advantage. I expect Barrios to use his jab and keep Pacquiao at a comfortable range where he can maximize the size difference.

Pacquiao will try to dance, use his speed, and unleash his furious combos. It’s certainly possible that if he stays out of trouble then Pac-Man could win on points. However, a lot would need to go his way for this to happen.

My heart is rooting for Pacquiao as I have for over two decades. Unfortunately, my wallet believes in Barrios’ size, strength, and youthful advantages.

Bet: Mario Barrios (-285)

The Best Manny Pacquiao vs. Mario Barrios Prop Bets

Check out our breakdown for the following Pacquiao vs. Barrios prop bets:

Over/Under 10.5 rounds

• Over 10.5 (-120)
• Under 10.5 (-110)

I expect this bout to go Over 10.5 rounds. Pacquiao has gone Over 10.5 rounds in nine of his last 10 fights. Barrios has gone past this mark in six of his last eight bouts.

Bet: Over 10.5 rounds (-120)

Will Fight go the distance?

• Yes (-110)
• No (-125)

I expect this bout to go the full 12 rounds. Partly because neither fight will risk getting caught or try to chase the knockout. Not to mention, I’m not even sure Pacquiao has the power to knockout Barrios.

The champ has gone the distance in four of his last five bouts including three in a row. Pacquiao has gone the distance in 10 of his last 11 fights.

Bet: Yes (-110)

Method of Victory

• Pacquiao via TKO/KO/DQ (+500)
• Pacquiao via decision (+550)
• Barrios via TKO/KO/DQ (+130)
• Barrios via decision (+200)
• Draw (+1400)

As you can see above, I think we’re going the distance in this contest. So, we can eliminate the options of one of these two fighters winning by stoppage. I also believe that we’ll have a definitive winner and not a Draw.

With that said, I am leaning towards Barrios via decision despite rooting for Pacquiao to win.

Bet: Barrios via decision (+200)

Betting on Rounds

• Either Winner in rounds 1-4 (+900)
• Either Winner in rounds 5-8 (+300)
• Either Winner in rounds 9-12 (+300)
• Fight To Go The Distance (-110)

Following the theme above, we’re taking the fight to go the distance. If you are looking for something with more value, and more risk, then take Either Winner in rounds 9-12. We could see one of the two men experience fatigue and take one too many power punches.

Bet: Fight To Go The Distance (-110)

What’s Next For The Pacquiao vs. Barrios Winner?

Nothing is set in stone right now, but I would expect the winner of this fight to challenge for another welterweight championship like the IBF or WBA. Currently, the IBF title is vacant. The WBA is held by Rolly Romero (17-2) who isn’t considered unbeatable.

Pacquiao vs Barrios fight card

• Manny Pacquiao vs (c)Mario Barrios for the WBC welterweight title
• (c)Sebastian Fundora vs Tim Tszyu for Fundora’s WBC super welterweight title
• Isaac Cruz vs Angel Fierro in a Super Lightweight bout
• Brandon Figueroa vs Joet Gonzalez in a Featherweight fight
• Gary Russell Jr. vs Hugo Castaneda in a Super Featherweight bout