2025 PFL Europe 1 Odds, Predictions and Fight Card

PFL Europe 2025 kicks off this week in Belfast, featuring a tense lightweight tilt between Paul Hughes and Bruno Miranda. The early PFL Europe 1 odds peg Hughes as a large betting favorite, but this is just one huge bout on a jam-packed card.

It is undeniably still the main draw as PFL Europe gets underway, but there is a lot to get excited about for MMA fans and bettors, alike. The action fires off on May 10th, so now is the time to get your bets in.

We’ve been handing out PFL and UFC picks all year, and the goal is to help you win some more during PFL Europe 1. Join me as I analyze the latest PFL Europe betting odds, while highlighting my top picks and predictions for this week’s massive event.

How To Watch PFL Europe 1?

Fans and bettors alike can tune into DAZN to watch PFL Europe 1.

When Is PFL Europe 1?

PFL Europe 2025 will fire off at 12:00 pm EST.

Where Is PFL Europe 1? 

You can take in PFL Europe 2025 live and in person at the SSE Arena in Belfast, Northern Ireland.

PFL Europe Schedule

Check out the upcoming 2025 PFL Europe schedule:

• May 10: 2025 PFL Europe 1 
• May 24: 2025 PFL Europe 2

PFL Europe 1 Odds

Check out the latest PFL Europe 1 odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites: 

The PFL Europe 1 odds are a bit of a mixed bag. You’re definitely getting some solid value for some of these fights, but unless you feel amazing about an upset, the bigger bouts may be better off left alone.

Paul Hughes, for instance, is a massive draw in his return home, but at -455, you simply are not getting much bang for your buck. Betting on him to stop the fight early is another option, of course, while you could always swing for the fences and back Miranda to stage the upset.

I don’t see a ton of PFL Europe upsets I am in love with here, so it may be more about simply sandbagging wins when it comes to the main card. Feel free to roll with my PFL Europe picks above, or read on for further analysis for each fight.

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PFL Europe 1 Predictions

PFL Europe 2025 will fire off at 12:00 pm EST. Check out our latest PFL Europe 1 predictions for each listed fight:

Paul Hughes (-455) vs. Bruno Miranda (+300)

This event is really all about Paul Hughes (13-2), who has long said he’d come back and star in this event in Belfast – and here we are. 

Big News dominated in Cage Warriors as a champion, while his lone loss since 2020 is an understandable dropped Decision against Usman Nurmagomedov. Hughes certainly held his own in that fight, however, while it’s simply not a loss he should be ashamed of.

Tough as nails and seemingly impossible to finish, Hughes has the defense and skill-set to go toe-to-toe with anyone, and I don’t anticipate him having major trouble with Bruno Miranda.

Miranda (17-5) is a dangerous fighter with nine KOs to his name, but he’s not nearly as durable as his opponent, having been finished five times in his career. Robusto is also seven years older than Hughes, while his recent form (1-2 record) is less than ideal.

Bet: Paul Hughes (-455)

Lewis McGrillen (-1000) vs. Alan Philpott (+500)

One would think Paul Hughes would be the biggest betting favorite going into PFL Europe 1, and one would be wrong. He’s up there, but it’s actually Lewis McGrillen (10-1), who is a massive -1000 favorite to take out Alan Philpott (21-16).

The 24-year old McGrillen knows how to finish a fight. Nine of his 10 wins have come via KO, while both of his 2024 wins ended in that fashion. McGrillen isn’t really expected to be challenged by Philpott, who has lost via submission a remarkable 14 times and has gone just 2-5 over his last seven bouts.

McGrillen has yet to force anyone to tap out yet, while Philpott’s experience on the mat could in theory pose a problem. That said, McGrillen’s defense and striking ability give him a clear edge here, assuming he can maintain control if the fight goes to the ground.

The latest PFL Europe 1 odds indicate he will. He looks like a gimme bet, but nobody is throwing money at a -1000 price tag. Instead, I’d be hunting down some PFL Europe props, whether it be a KO prop or a bet on this one ending inside the distance.

Bet: Lewis McGrillen (-1000)

Connor Hughes (-475) vs. Sebastian Di Franco (+188)

Another large PFL Europe betting favorite is Connor Hughes (10-2), as the 27-year old has displayed a versatile skill-set and the ability to end fights early in numerous ways.

Hughes has four KOs and three submissions, giving him a finish in 70% of his wins. He did showcase some vulnerability to like minded brutality, of course, with Jakub Kaszuba delivering a TKO against him last December.

That loss snapped a three-fight winning streak for Hughes, who will look to get back on track this week against Sebastian Di Franco (10-3). Di Franco is just 1-2 over his last three bouts and is headed in the wrong direction, although he also offers a versatile game and has yet to be knocked out.

Di Franco could present a tougher challenge than the current line suggests, but I trust in Hughes’ finishing ability and recent form. 

Bet: Connor Hughes (-475)

Mark Ewen (-215) vs. Alex Chizovs (+150)

We have a much more evenly matched bout between Mark Ewen (6-1) and Alex Chizovs (10-3). Ewen enters as a solid favorite, regardless, as he submitted Yassin Chtatou in his last fight and has earned a finish in all six of his wins thus far.

Ewen has a versatile and explosive game, which figures to give him the leg up against Chizovs, who has been finished twice in his career and has dropped two fights in a row.

All things considered, Ewen is a bit easier to trust in this one. He doesn’t have the experience of his opponent, but he’s displayed dominance and toughness that Chizovs may not be able to match.

Bet: Mark Ewen (-215)

Claudio Pacella (-235) vs. Gavin Hughes (+163)

Pacella actually took out Ewen not that long ago, and he’ll look to live up to the billing of a favorite at PFL Europe, just as well. Pacella (5-2) is the clear favorite as he prepares to battle Gavin Hughes (11-4), even though he doesn’t have nearly as much experience.

To his credit, Pacella has three KOs across five wins, and he sports better form the Hughes. Ewen also has a mild one-inch reach edge in this fight, while he will be waging war in his own backyard.

Hughes has endured more fights, is versatile, and has 10 finishes across 11 wins. He hasn’t faced very tough competition, though, which makes his three career defeats via early stoppage even more damning.

Even so, Hughes built a nice career early on, but has stumbled badly, going just 2-4 over his last six fights. It’s always possible he puts it together to stage the upset, but between the two, he’s far more difficult to trust.

Bet: Claudio Pacella (-235)

Decky McAleenan (-182) vs. Gino van Steenis (+132)

There are going to be more PFL Europe bouts, but these are the only ones with odds at the top MMA sportsbooks so far. I’ll cap things off with one of the lighter PFL Europe betting favorites, as Decky McAleenan (9-5-1) is a mild favorite to upend Gino van Steenis (5-1).

This one is tough to call, as McAleenan definitely has more experience, has a well-rounded skill-set, and is adept at finishing fights (8 wins by stoppage). He’s also an Ireland native, so the oddsmakers appear to be siding with him for that reason as well.

I think this is one spot where I don’t mind targeting some value and going away from an Irish lad. Gino van Steenis isn’t a world beater, but he’s off to a decent 5-1 start, is far younger than McAleenan, and has exhibited impressive toughness and defense to this point.

Decky is a skilled and explosive fighter, but he leaves himself vulnerable to early finishes. It’s happened three times in his career so far and I wouldn’t be shocked if it happened against a young and hungry mixed martial artist like van Steenis.

Bet: Gino van Steenis (+132)

The Best PFL Europe 1 Picks

The following is our best PFL Europe picks for this week’s event:

• Paul Hughes (-455)
• Mark Ewen (-215)

There are some ugly lines on this fight card, and there are some even uglier fights. I am picking a lot of the favorites to win, but in some cases, it’s almost by default. Not a lot separates some of these fighters, so to call them “safe” picks would be a lie.

Having said that, Paul Hughes is the closest thing to a lock on this card. He is an extremely tough and highly skilled fighter. He can win in a multitude of ways, and more than anything, he never backs down from a challenge, and he’s nearly impossible to finish.

Hughes should get the win in front of his home crowd, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he got a KO, either.

Ewen is the other bet I feel good about due to price. His odds could honestly be longer, but I love that he’s coming in at a somewhat palatable -215. I’d hop all over this one as the second best bet of the entire card.

PFL Fight Card

Check out the updated PFL Europe 1 fight card: