2025 PFL World Tournament 7 Odds and Predictions 

By:

Kody Miller

in

MMA

Last Updated on

Another batch of PFL World Tournament semifinals arrives on June 27th, with the middleweights, light heavyweights, and heavyweights taking center stage at Wintrust Arena in Chicago, Illinois.

A middleweight clash between Fabian Edwards and Josh Silveria headlines the main card, with several other juicy fights coming before it. It’s set up to be an explosive night of PFL action, with the last group of fighters looking to state their case for the PFL finals.

We’ve been handing out PFL and UFC picks all year with solid results, and the hope is to keep the good times rolling on Friday evening. To nudge you in the right direction, let’s first take a look at the latest PFL 7 odds and make a prediction for each fight.

How To Watch PFL World Tournament 7?

PFL 7 can be viewed on ESPN and ESPN+.

When Is PFL World Tournament 7?

PFL 7 kicks off at 8:30 pm EST on Friday night, with the main card arriving at 10:30 pm EST.

Where Is PFL World Tournament 7? 

You can attend PFL 7 live at Wintrust Arena in Chicago, Illinois.

PFL World Tournament Schedule

Check out the upcoming 2025 PFL World Tournament schedule:

PFL World Tournament 7 Main Card Odds

Check out the latest PFL World Tournament 7 odds for the Main Card, courtesy of the top sports betting sites

PFL FavoritePFL UnderdogPFL Prediction
Fabian Edwards (-500)Josh Silveira (+300)Fabian Edwards (-500)
Phil Davis (-260)Sullivan Cauley (+175)Phil Davis (-260)
Raufeon Stots (-250)Sergio Pettis (+170)Raufeon Stots (-250)
Dalton Rosta (-135)Aaron Jeffrey (-105)Dalton Rosta (-135)
Simeon Powell (-165)Antonio Carlos Jr. (+125)Antonio Carlos Jr. (+125)

The PFL 7 main card is going to be straight fire. The main event has a very lopsided price, with Fabian Edwards fully expected to beat Josh Siveira, but no other bout is priced above -260.

This makes for really compelling value across the board. Either we’re getting nice prices via Dalton Rosta and Simeon Powell, or we’re looking at solid underdogs in Sullivan Cauley and Sergio Pettis.

The big question beyond the obvious value, of course, is who will actually win at PFL 7? I’ve got you covered with my PFL World Tournament predictions above, and I’ll dive deeper into each matchup below.

Need more advice before placing any PFL 7 bets? Make sure you’re getting the best advice possible via the best handicappers online.

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PFL World Tournament 7 Predictions For The Main Card

The PFL 7 main card can be viewed on ESPN and ESPN+, starting at 10:30 pm EST.

Fabian Edwards (-500) vs. Josh Silveira (+300)

The brother of UFC star Leon Edwards is a huge favorite going into PFL 7. Fabian Edwards (14-4) has been up and down of late with a 2-2 showing over his last five fights, but he brings solid striking and finishing ability (8 wins by stoppage) to the table.

Edwards is coming off of an impressive TKO win over Impa Kasanganay this past April, while he owns a four-inch reach advantage when he prepares to battle Josh Silveira (14-4). Edwards has the striking edge in this matchup, and has proven to be quite tough (1 KO loss) against solid competition throughout his career.

Silveira’s most likely path to a win should come from his wrestling. The reach disadvantage is alarming, and he won’t out-strike Edwards. That said, he’s quite versatile and fairly explosive (12 finishes in 14 wins) and can win in a number of ways if he works the fight to the ground.

I tend to think Silveira has more of a chance to win than the latest PFL 7 odds indicate, but the striking discrepancy and Edwards’ reach edge are probably too much for him to overcome. He also couldn’t figure out Kasanganay in two recent meetings, while Fabian worked him in a TKO victory. 

Bet: Fabian Edwards (-500)

Phil Davis (-260) vs. Sullivan Cauley (+175)

Next up is Phil Davis, who is one of the bigger PFL 7 betting favorites of the week, despite his odds not really being out of control at -260. Davis (25-7) has light years more experience than his opponent, as he’s already lost as many fights as Sullivan Culley (7-1) has won.

That can be good and bad, but Davis has 25 wins to his name, with 12 of them coming early. He’s also now 40 years old, while two of his seven career losses have come within his last five bouts.

Despite the advanced age and shaky form of late, Davis has never been finished and his recent losses were Decisions to solid fighters. He also took out the likes of Rob Wilkinson (TKO) after a lengthy two-year layoff, firmly reminding everyone he can still ball.

Cauley has nowhere near the experience of Davis, but he has a good record so far and has six KOs in seven victories. He’s also obviously got youth on his side, as he is 11 years younger than Davis. Of course, he also loses four inches in reach to his opponent.

I see the appeal in Cauley at +175, but I am willing to trust that Davis has at least one more big win in him. He has loads of experience and he can keep Cauley at bay with those four extra inches.

Bet: Phil Davis (-260) 

Raufeon Stots (-250) vs. Sergio Pettis (+170)

The odds are quite similar when Raufeon Stots (21-2) takes on Sergio Pettis (23-7). Stots is favored to win and he owns the far better record, but it’s worth noting the 36-year old’s only two losses have come via KO. 

They weren’t against scrubs, though, as Patchy Mix caught him with a knee in 2023 and the legendary Merab Dvalishvili dropped him with a spinning backfist way back in 2017. To his credit, Stots rattled off 11 wins after Merab KO’d him, and he bounced back nicely after losing to Mix, too (2-0 since).

Stots has a versatile skill-set and has otherwise proven to be quite tough, which a grueling Decision win over Magomed Magomedov in 2021 can attest to. That’s his biggest attribute, too; he’s got a scorching record in the face of a pretty killer MMA resume.

Pettis is no less vulnerable to getting finished, of course. He’s been KO’d once and submitted twice, while he’s entering PFL 7 riding a two-fight skid. He’d been on fire up until then, but it’s fair to say he hasn’t done quite as well when going up against stiff competition.

I do think Pettis is a dangerous fighter and pretty versatile, but no more so than Stots, who has better overall form and has a more impressive resume. Pettis offers compelling value and should make it a good fight, but I continue to lean toward the favorite.

Bet: Raufeon Stots (-250)

Dalton Rosta (-135) vs. Aaron Jeffrey (-105)

One of my favorite PFL 7 fights has Dalton Rosa (10-1) battling Aaron Jeffrey (16-5). Rosa lacks experience, but he impressed with a submission win over Sadibou Sy this past April. His only career loss came against – you guessed it – Jeffrey, too.

Jeffery out-worked him in a Decision win, but I think the second meeting can go Rosta’s way. He’s won 91% of his matches to this point, with 50% of them ending early (4 KO). While it didn’t go his way the first time around, I think Rosta’s grappling ability could give him an edge here.

Obviously both fighters have nice prices, and Jeffery has a feather in his cap thanks to a 1-0 lead in this series. However, he’s thrived on KOs in his career, and he wasn’t able to finish Rosta off when he last faced him. In fact, that hasn’t been happening for him much at all lately, as he’s been stuck in 9 KOs for five fights now.

It’s a close call, but Rosta is an ascending talent and after getting a good look at Jeffery already, I think he can edge him out at PFL 7.

Bet: Dalton Rosta (-135)

Simeon Powell (-165) vs. Antonio Carlos Jr. (+125)

My first PFL 7 upset pick will be Antonio Carlos Jr. (17-6). I know he is 36 now and not a threat to finish this fight with his fists (0 KOs), but if he works this thing to the ground, his submission game equates to a lights out situation for the younger and less experienced Powell (11-1).

If the fight stays standing up, I would be pretty concerned. Carlos still has good defense and is pretty tough, while he’s been knocked out just once in a long career. He does lose major height and reach advantages to Powell, too, while Powell is considerably younger at 26.

All of that is why Powell is favored. He has youth, reach, and knockout ability on his side, but MMA is about more than those things. If Carlos can get the fight to the mat, I think he’s got at least one more win in him.

Bet: Antonio Carlos Jr. (+125)

PFL World Tournament 7 Preliminary Odds

Check out the latest PFL World Tournament 7 odds for the Preliminary Card: 

PFL FavoritePFL UnderdogPFL Prediction
Valentin Moldavsky (-175)Alexandr Romanov (+135)Alexandr Romanov (+135)
Biaggio Ali Walsh (-1500)Ronnie Gibbs (+600)Biaggio Ali Walsh (-1500)
Oleg Popov (-230)Rodrigo Nascimento (+160)Oleg Popov (-230)
Rafael Xavier (-155)Karl Albrektsson (+115)Rafael Xavier (-155)

There’s one egregiously priced favorite on the Prelims card, as Biaggio Ali Walsh is an insane -1500 bet to win. I feel like we keep seeing a bigger favorite each week, but that’s the thickest moneyline I can recall while betting on MMA.

He’s a lock to win at this point, but nobody else is priced over -230 for the Prelims. Much like it is the case with the main card, this card is full of value. We should be looking for some upsets here, but even if we don’t want to bet on the PFL 7 underdogs, the favorites are priced so nicely that the value is solid across the board.

You can roll with my PFL 7 Prelims predictions, or read on for a bit more analysis for each bout.

PFL World Tournament 7 Predictions For The Preliminary Card

The PFL 7 Prelims get going at 8:30 pm EST on ESPN+.

Valentin Moldavsky (-175) vs. Alexandr Romanov (+135)

This is probably my second favorite fight headed into PFL 7, as Valentin Moldavsky (14-4) and Alexandr Romanov (19-3) are two brute forces who know how to enforce their will.

It isn’t the sexiest bout stylistically, but when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object, you tend to wait a second to see how it plays out. Moldavsky is the mild favorite, as he’s only lost to Linton Vassell and Ryan Bader since 2017 and he’s been KO’d just one time.

Moldavsky doesn’t have much finishing ability, but he is as tough as they come. That could admittedly be a problem for Romanov (19-3), who has a better record and way more finishes (16!), but can run out of gas and may not have Moldavsky’s level of grappling.

Still, I feel like we’re getting value with Romanov. This is a guy who thrived for a time in the UFC, is not easily bullied, and can end fights in a number of ways (6 KOs, 10 submissions). He’s also been in far more difficult situations than Valentin, so his experience and the competition he’s faced gives him an added edge.

There aren’t a ton of spots with screaming underdog value on this card, but this feels like one.

Bet: Alexandr Romanov (+135)

Biaggio Ali Walsh (-1500) vs. Ronnie Gibbs (+600)

I won’t waste your time here. Crazy upsets can happen in MMA, but Ali Walsh is the grandson of the great Muhammad Ali, had a 6-1 amateur record, and has had extensive training with the likes of Sean Strickland.

He’s looked the part through two fights (2-0), with his most recent bout ending in a TKO win over Brian Stapleton. He’s also five years younger than Ronnie Gibbs, who has fought one less fight professionally.

Should the odds actually be this one-sided? Probably not, but Biaggio has had a lot of time to prepare for this big jump, and I think he’s going to take advantage of it. Gibb is a fine YOLO bet at +600, but if you don’t want to lay the money for Walsh’s -1500 line, just target an inside the distance win instead.

Bet: Biaggio Ali Walsh (-1500)

Oleg Popov (-230) vs. Rodrigo Nascimento (+160)

Things calm down greatly in terms of moneylines, as Oleg Popov (20-2) is just a -230 betting favorite to edge out Rodrigo Nascimento (12-3). I say “just”, but Popov is still a pretty sizable favorite due to his elite record, solid finishing ability (12 wins by stoppage), and top shelf defense.

He did lose to Denis Golstolv via submission two fights ago, but that man is an absolute legend. Popov has otherwise been on fire, as he bounced back with a nice Decision win over Karl Williams and is 18-1 over his last 19 bouts.

Popov can outlast his opponents, historically does not get duped into silly mistakes, and he has the finishing ability to make you pay. Nascimento has a decent record, but he flamed out of the UFC and has spotty form by comparison. His three losses inside the UFC were quite understandable, but he lacks the finishing ability or toughness Popov offers.

Bet: Oleg Popov (-230)

Rafael Xavier (-155) vs. Karl Albrektsson (+115)

The final fight of the PFL 7 Prelims has Rafael Xavier (13-8) as a slight favorite when he goes up against Karl Albrektsson (14-7). These guys have similar records, having eaten a lot of losses throughout their careers, but both possess nice finishing ability.

Xavier has the leg up thanks to 9 career knockout wins, as well as two submissions. He’s seen 10 of his 13 wins end early, while only losing by stoppage once in 21 bouts. His last fight was a tough Decision loss to the explosive Simeon Powell, but he scored consecutive TKO wins in the two fights prior.

Albrektsson has been less impressive lately. He’s just as dangerous with 7 KOs (10 of 14 wins coming via stoppage), but he’s been knocked out four times and finished five in total. His recent form has also been far worse, as he’s just 1-4 over his last five fights.

I still say Karl is live for the mild upset, as he has elite finishing ability, but an increasingly soft chin against a worthy foe likely spells doom.

Bet: Rafael Xavier (-155)

The Best PFL World Tournament Picks

The following is our best PFL World Tournament semifinals picks for this week’s event:

  • Fabian Edwards (-500)
  • Raufeon Stots (-250)
  • Antonio Carlos Jr. (+125)

Fabian Edwards is the safest PFL 7 pick you can make. The only issue at all is his price, so I’d be looking for alternative betting lines, or seeking a method of victory bet. His recent TKO win gives me optimism he can finish Joshua Silveira, but we know he has a solid floor game, too.

You don’t need to worry about the price as much with someone like Raufeon Stots, who can safely be wagered on at -250. He is simply a guy who does not lose and does not get out-worked, plus the only two KO losses of his career came against a legend and a very good fighter in Patchy Mix.

Carlos Jr. is my top upset pick of this event. He’s getting older at 36, but he’s insanely good on the mat and has the leg up in his

PFL Fight Card

Check out the updated PFL World Tournament 7 fight card:

PFL FavoritePFL UnderdogPFL Prediction
Fabian Edwards (-500)Josh Silveira (+300)Fabian Edwards (-500)
Phil Davis (-260)Sullivan Cauley (+175)Phil Davis (-260)
Raufeon Stots (-250)Sergio Pettis (+170)Raufeon Stots (-250)
Dalton Rosta (-135)Aaron Jeffrey (-105)Dalton Rosta (-135)
Simeon Powell (-165)Antonio Carlos Jr. (+125)Antonio Carlos Jr. (+125)
Valentin Moldavsky (-175)Alexandr Romanov (+135)Alexandr Romanov (+135)
Biaggio Ali Walsh (-1500)Ronnie Gibbs (+600)Biaggio Ali Walsh (-1500)
Oleg Popov (-230)Rodrigo Nascimento (+160)Oleg Popov (-230)
Rafael Xavier (-155)Karl Albrektsson (+115)Rafael Xavier (-155)

PFL World Tournament 1 Results

Here’s a quick recap of the PFL World Tournament 1 results:

PFL Welterweight Results

  • Welterweight: Jason Jackson def. Andrey Koreshkov via 2nd rd. Submission
  • Welterweight: Logan Storley def. Joseph Luciano via UD
  • Welterweight: Thad Jean def. Mukhamed Berkhamov via 1st rd. KO
  • Welterweight: Masayuki Kikuiri def. Giannis Bachar via 2nd rd. TKO

PFL Featherweight Results

  • Featherweight: Jesus Pinedo def. Adam Borics via 1st rd. TKO
  • Featherweight: Movlid Khaybulaev def. Jeremy Kennedy via SD
  • Featherweight Gabriel Braga def. Frederik Dupras via 1st rd. Submission
  • Featherweight: Tae Kyun Kim def. Nathan Kelly via 1st rd. Submission

PFL World Tournament 2 Results

Here’s a quick recap of the PFL World Tournament 2 results:

PFL Bantamweight Results

  • Bantamweight: Marcirley Alves def. Leandro Higo via SD
  • Bantamweight: Mando Gutierrez def. Francesco Nuzzi via 1st rd. Submission
  • Bantamweight: Justin Wetzell def. Kasum Kasumov via UD
  • Bantamweight: Jake Hadley def. Matheus Mattos via 3rd rd. Submission

PFL Women’s Flyweight Results

  • Women’s Flyweight: Liz Carmouche def. Ilara Joanne via 1st rd. TKO
  • Women’s Flyweight: Ekaterina Shakalova def. Juliana Velasquez via 1st rd. Submission
  • Women’s Flyweight: Jena Bishop def. Kana Watanabe via UD
  • Women’s Flyweight: Elora Dana def. Diana Avsaragova via 1st rd. Submission

PFL World Tournament 3 Results

Here’s a quick recap of the PFL World Tournament 3 results:

PFL Middleweight Results

  • Middleweight: Fabian Edwards def. Impa Kasanganay via 2nd rd. TKO
  • Middleweight: Dalton Rosta def. Sadibou Sy via submission via 2nd rd. Submission
  • Middleweight First Round Bout: Josh Silveira def. Mike Shipman via UD
  • Middleweight First Round Bout: Aaron Jeffery def. Murad Ramazanov via SD

PFL Lightweight Results

  • Lightweight: Gadzhi Rabadanov def. Marc Diakiese via 1st rd. TKO
  • Lightweight: Jay-Jay Wilson def. Mads Burnell via 3rd. TKO strikes
  • Lightweight: Alfie Davis def. Clay Collard via 1st rd. TKO
  • Lightweight: Brent Primus def. Vinicius Cenci via 3rd rd. Submission

PFL World Tournament 4 Results

Here’s a quick recap of the PFL World Tournament 4 results:

PFL Light Heavyweight Results

  • Light Heavyweight: Phil Davis def. Rob Wilkinson 2nd rd. TKO
  • Light Heavyweight: Antonio Carlos Junior def. Karl Moore via SD
  • Light Heavyweight: Simeon Powell def. Karl Albrektsson 2nd rd. TKO
  • Light Heavyweight: Sullivan Cauley def. Alex Polizzi 1st rd. TKO

PFL Heavyweight Results

  • Heavyweight: Valentin Moldavsky def. Sergey Bilostenniy via UD
  • Heavyweight: Alexander Romanov def. Timothy Johnson 1st rd. Submission
  • Heavyweight: Oleg Popov def. Karl Williams via SD
  • Heavyweight: Rodrigo Nascimento def. Abraham Bably via SD

PFL World Tournament 5 Results

Here’s a quick recap of the PFL World Tournament 5 results:

PFL Welterweight Results

  • Welterweight: Thad Jean def. Jason Jackson via SD
  • Welterweight: Logan Storley def. Masayuki Kikuiri via UD
  • Welterweight: Sarek Shields def. Joseph Luciano via UD
  • Welterweight: Kendly St. Louis def. Murkhamed Berkhamov via 3rd rd. Submission

PFL Featherweight Results

  • Featherweight: Jesus Pinedo def. Gabriel Braga via 1st rd. TKO
  • Featherweight: Movlid Khaybulaev def. Kim Tae-kyun via UD
  • Featherweight: Adam Borics def. Jeremy Kennedy via MD
  • Featherweight: Alexei Pergande def. Mike Bardsley via UD

PFL World Tournament 6 Results

Here’s a quick recap of the PFL World Tournament 6 results:

PFL Lightweight Results

  • Lightweight: Gadzhi Rabadanov def. Kevin Lee via 1st rd. TKO
  • Lightweight: Archie Colgan def. Mansour Barnaoui via UD
  • Lightweight: Alfie Davis def. Brent Primus via UD
  • Lightweight: Vinicius Sacchelli Cenci def. Antonio Caruso via 1st rd. Submission

PFL Bantamweight Results

  • Bantamweight: Marcirley Alves def. Jake Hadley via UD
  • Bantamweight: Justin Wetzell def. Mando Gutierrez via UD
  • Bantamweight: Magomed Maogmedov def. Sarvarjon Khamidov via UD

PFL Women’s Flyweight Results

  • Women’s Flyweight: Liz Carmouche def. Elora Dana via UD
  • Women’s Flyweight: Jena Bishop def. Ekaterina Shakalova via 2nd rd. Submission
  • Women’s Flyweight: Ilra Joanne def. Saray Orozco via UD