UFC 314 Odds, Predictions and Full Card

We have worked our way through some good but not necessarily amazing UFC events, only to be very much rewarded with major fireworks at UFC 314.

The action gets going with the Early Prelims on ESPN+ and Disney+ at 5:00 pm EST, and wraps things up with a Featherweight title fight between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes.

This card is jam-packed with good matchups, with a ferocious battle between Paddy Pimblett and Michael Chandler being one of the more exciting pairings. Other big names such as Yair Rodriguez, Bryce Mitchell, Nikita Krylov, and many more will hit the Octagon, sure to give us one heck of a show.

If you’re looking for UFC picks you can trust, look no further. I’ll inspect the latest UFC 314 odds and nudge you in the right direction as I break down each match and offer my favorite UFC 314 predictions.

Where To Watch UFC 314?

UFC 314 can be viewed on ESPN+ and Disney+ for the Early Prelims, while the Prelims can also be viewed on ESPN. The main event can be caught on PPV.

What Time Does UFC 314 start?

The first match fires off at 5:00 pm EST with the start of the Early Prelims. The Prelims start two hours later at 7:00 pm EST, while the main card gets going on PPV at 9:00 pm EST.

Where Is UFC 314?

Want to attend UFC 314 live and in person? Head to Miami, Florida, as all of these fights will be going down at the Kaseya Center.

UFC 314 Main Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC 314 odds for the Main Card, courtesy of the top sports betting sites: 

We get a legit banger with UFC 314 arriving this weekend. If you weren’t quite sure about it, this card takes things home on name recognition alone, but then you look at the pricing and you know for a fact fireworks are coming.

The main event is about as good as it gets, as the great Alexander Volkanovski goes for a title in hopes of redeeming himself from two recent defeats. If that weren’t amazing enough, though, a much-hyped clash between the brash Paddy Pimblett and the terrorizing Michael Chandler is almost too close to call.

No matter which way you look, the UFC 314 odds are rather inviting, with Jean Silva (-260) being the biggest favorite. See what I mean? You can roll with my UFC 314 predictions above, or read on for some extra reasoning for each pick.

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UFC 314 Predictions For The Main Card

The UFC 314 main card rolls out at 9:00 pm EST on PPV.

Alexander Volkanovski (-145) vs. Diego Lopes (+125)

The main event is a good one, as the aging Volkanovski (26-4) hopes to get a title back in his hands and simultaneously snap a two-fight losing streak. The 36-year old could easily be at the end of the line, as he’s just 1-3 over his last four bouts and has been finished in two in a row.

Even so, Volkanovski has a chance to redeem himself here, and he’s even favored to do so at most MMA betting sites. Obviously he’s displayed elite finishing ability (13 KOs) throughout his career, while it’s not like losses to Ilia Topuria or Islam Makhachev (twice) should be seen as disastrous blemishes on his otherwise pristine record.

Here’s what we need to ask ourselves; is Volkanovski truly done, or is his best still good enough to fend off someone like Diego Lopes?

Lopes (26-6) is no slouch. Not only does he have a massive height edge and a slight reach advantage, but he’s been an even nastier finisher than his opponent (22 wins by stoppage), but he’s also proven to be more versatile.

He’s on a tear at the moment, too, having gotten past Brian Ortega in the last of five consecutive wins. Of course, his recent hot run doesn’t hold a candle to Volkanovski’s resume, and The Great does own the striking edge, averaging 6.16 significant strikes landed per minute, compared to Diego’s 4.20.

Lopes is a threat here, and he offers good value. It’s always possible an aging legend is put out to pasture, too. That said, Narrative Street sides with the hungry vet, who has never been submitted and is technically sound to the point where Lopes dominating him feels unlikely.

Bet: Alexander Volkanovski (-145)

Paddy Pimblett (-172) vs. Michael Chandler (+147)

This isn’t the end of the road for Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett, but I do think some course correction will be needed. Pimblett (22-3) has done nothing but impress since entering the UFC, going a perfect 6-0 and getting past solid fighters like Jared Gordon, Bobby Green, and even Tony Ferguson.

The resume is building and this kid hasn’t lost since 2018, but it’s pretty arguable he’s yet to run into a striking maestro like Michael Chandler. To his credit, Pimblett has walked the walk. He brings elite finishing ability to the table (16 wins by stoppage), he’s a dynamo on the mat, and he’s never been knocked out.

All of that combines to paint a promising picture as he prepares to take on the aggressive Chandler, who at age 38 is certainly running out of opportunities to prove himself. The aging former Bellator superstar has fallen from grace, going just 2-4 inside the Octagon and dropping his once stout record to 23-9.

Of course, context is everything. Chandler has dropped four losses under the UFC banner, but each of his losses were to monster opponents – Charles Oliveira (twice), Justin Gaethje, and Dustin Poirer. More impressively, he managed to go the distance with Oliveira and Gaethje.

Chandler is still a physical marvel even though it appears that he’s now past his prime. He will stand tall and trade blows with anyone who dares meet him on the feet, and Paddy Pamblett is arrogant enough to consider doing so. Due to that – plus the one-punch rule that definitely applies to someone as explosive as Chandler (11 career KO wins) – I really like him at his +147 price tag.

There’s a decent chance Pimblett baits Chandler into a faux shootout, tires him out, and puts him to sleep. Because of that, I’d play both sides of this one and even target Paddy for a submission win. But chasing a Michael Chandler KO just feels too good to pass up.

Bet: Michael Chandler (+147)

Jean Silva (-260) vs. Bryce Mitchell (+220)

I gave those first two UFC 314 bouts the proper credit they deserved. Those are two high-profile matches that are giving bettors value back, regardless of how they bet. Now it’s time to burn through the rest of the UFC 314 main card.

There is no denying that Bryce Mitchell (17-3) is a crafty and skilled fighter. He is a menace on the canvas (9 submissions) and he’s tough as nails. However, he offers little finishing ability outside of wins on the floor, and his striking leaves a lot to be desired.

He’s live to pull off the upset via submission, but Jean Silva (15-2) is a bad matchup for Mitchell. This is not a spot where the striking is remotely even, nor does Mitchell have a substantial reach advantage. His recent form isn’t even promising, as he’s just 2-2 over his last four bouts.

Silva is two years younger, is a brutal striker (5.26 significant strikes landed per minute), and knows how to finish fights (12 KOs). His defense is also impeccable, as he has never been finished. He’s on fire at the moment, too, as his last loss came via Decision way back in 2018.

Silva is a huge favorite here and rightfully so. I still think there’s always a chance Mitchell trips him up on the floor, but I love Silva’s chances at grinding out a Decision win, and he’s absolutely in play to knock Mitchell out.

Bet: Jean Silva (-260)

Yair Rodriguez (-190) vs. Patricio Pitbull (+165)

Want another intense battle? You got it! Yair Rodriguez is a mild favorite when he takes on Patricio Pitbull. It’s arguable he should be a bigger favorite, though, as his opponent is 37 years old and Tair has a massive six-inch reach edge and six-inch height advantage.

Yair will tower over Pitbull in this one, but that doesn’t exactly guarantee a win. Still, Yair (20-5) has a really versatile skill-set and some nice finishing ability. This could be a get-right spot for him, as the 32-year old has run into some tough sledding with back-to-back defeats by the hands of Alexander Volkanovski and Brian Ortega.

I don’t know if I’d hold either of those losses against him. Before those fights, he’d submitted Josh Emmett and dropped a TKO on Ortega, so it’s entirely plausible to believe he’s due for a bounce-back win.

He gets Patricio Pitbull (36-7), who definitely has racked up a nice record, and has high-level finishing ability (24 wins via stoppage). However, he’s obviously getting older, is just 1-2 over his last three bouts, and is making a leap up in competition after having a long run in Bellator.

An upset is always possible, but Yair has the edge in this one and I think he gets things back on track.

Bet: Yair Rodriguez (-190)

Nikita Krylov (-205) vs. Dominick Reyes (+175)

The last UFC 314 main card fight has Nikita Kyrlov (30-9) and Dominick Reyes (14-4) matching wits. Kyrlov has the far more impressive record, but these fighters come in with no real height or reach advantage, and they’re roughly the same age.

Krylov is an elite finisher who can kill you in a number of ways. He walks into this one with a remarkable 28 of his 30 wins ending via stoppage. He’s also eaten nine losses over his lengthy career, but just one has come via KO, and that happened way back in 2013.

While he has a terrific submission game (16 submissions), he’s tapped out six different times. Overall, he’s been finished seven times in nine losses. The 33-year old does not tend to leave his fights up to the judges. One way or another, his fights end with someone tapping or getting waved off.

The big question with Kyrlov is time off, as he hasn’t fought since March of 2023. His opponent is no slouch, either, as Reyes has nine career knockout wins to his name. He’s also no stranger to some tough battles, as Reyes got his career off to a blazing 12-0 start before succumbing to superstars like Jon Jones, Jan Blachowicz, and Jiri Prochazka.

Reyes went the distance with Jon Jones, but that loss broke the seal, so to speak, and sparked a nasty four-fight skid. Reyes has bounced back since then, however, as he KO’d both Dustin Jacoby and Anthony Smith in his last two fights.

In theory, Reyes could be overmatched here. He’s vulnerable to a knockout, but he’s also proven he can hold his own with literally anyone thrown his way. I respect Krylov, but he’s been away for long enough – and Reyes is powerful enough – to where I won’t blindly turn away from this +175 moneyline.

Krylov is a monster, but rust is a thing and he leaves himself open to upsets due to his style. I can see Reyes sneaking in a submission win or landing a KO.

Bet: Dominick Reyes (+175)

UFC 314 Preliminary Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC 314 odds for the Preliminary Card.

The Prelims could be the main card for several other UFC events. Even so, they look pretty darn good at first glance, although some of this pricing will send bettors running for the hills.

Chase Hooper is a terrific wrestler, but his -750 line is obscene. You have to navigate two other fighters with -320 odds or better, which is a tremendous change of pace compared to what we just went through on the main card.

Feel free to roll with my UFC 314 Prelims picks at face value, or read on for some quick analysis.

UFC 314 Predictions For The Preliminary Card

Catch the Early Prelims at 5:00 pm EST and the Prelims at 7:00 pm EST on ESPN+ and Disney+.

Sean Woodson (-170) vs. Dan Ige (+145)

I won’t waste much time here. Sean Woodson is favored to get past Dan Ige and I fully expect him to. Woodson (13-1-1) only has four KOs to his name, but he is very tough and has never been knocked out.

On top of that, he sports a killer seven-inch reach advantage and will tower over his opponent. He also lands 5.66 significant strikes per minute. He’s also coming in hot, having won four straight.

Woodwon is going to inflict a ton of damage here, whereas Ige (18-9) offers very little KO upside and has been in weak form with a 1-3 mark over his last four fights. He also has incredible defense and has never gotten knocked out.

Ultimately, I don’t think either of these dudes gets KO’d for the first time. We’re in for a grind-it-out battle that goes the distance, and that’s a bout that favors Woodson. Ige is one tough dude, but his inability to finish guys is precisely why he has such a middling record.

Bet: Sean Woodson (-170)

Virna Jandiroba (-148) vs. Yan Xiaonan (+128)

The great Yan Xiaonana (19-4) is an underdog in this one, as she will battle Virna Jandiroba (21-3). These are two very good fighters with contrasting styles, as Xiaonan offers superior striking and KO ability (8 knockout wins), and Virna wants this thing to go to the ground (14 submissions).

It’s tough to gauge who will have the upper hand here, as Virna has a mild one-inch reach edge and is actually the shorter fighter. Both fighters are in solid form, too, as Yan is 3-1 over her last four bouts, with her lone loss being a respectable Decision defeat against Weili Zhang.

Jandiroba was a beast outside of the UFC initially, and endured some growing pains. She’s bounced back nicely, however, and is now 7-3 in the promotion, with wins in each of her last four fights. 

Ultimately, I lean toward Yan. She isn’t a good bet to score a submission, but her elite defense and vastly superior striking might give her a leg up here. At +128, I’m willing to roll the dice with that logic.

Bet: Yan Xiaonan (+128)

Chase Hooper (-750) vs. Jim Miller (+550)

We get the biggest UFC 314 favorite of the week in Chase Hooper (15-3-1), who is the likely winner in a tilt with an over-the-hill Jim Miller. The 41-year old Miller (38-18) has had a terrific career, and remains a problem on the canvas (21 submissions!), as he made Damon Jackson tap out last November.

Miller is still live for the upset at +550, but it’s probably not worth our time. He has gobs of experience and is scrappy, but he’s likely walking into traps that Chase Hooper is setting up. Hooper’s youth could always get him into trouble, but the 25-year old has a three-inched reach edge and is four inches taller than his opponent.

This should allow the rangy Hooper to dictate engagement and attack from further away, while he definitely has the edge at this point when the fight ultimately goes to the ground. He never really looks like a guy who is about to outclass his opponent en route to victory, but Hooper thrives on the mat and can use his fists or make you tap to get that win.

All that said, the -750 price is insane. I’d target a Hooper submission or roll the dice on a YOLO bet with Miller for fun.

Bet: Chase Hooper (-750)

Julian Erosa (-375) vs. Darren Elkins (+310)

Another wryly vet is back at it when Darren Elkins (29-11) hopes to survive his battle with Julian Erosa (30-12). Both of these guys have racked up a lot of wins, but Erosa is far younger, has a 3.5-inch reach advantage, and is the more imposing striker.

Erosa has elite finishing ability, with 24 of his 30 wins ending via stoppage. He does leave himself open to knockouts, though. He’s never been submitted, but he’s been KO’d an alarming seven times in his career.

That alone does make Elkins an interesting UFC 314 upset pick. Elkins has nine knockout wins to his name, after all. That said, the aging star hasn’t KO’d anyone since 2021 and the man known as The Damage has eaten five losses by stoppage in his career.

This really isn’t the spot where I’d be betting on Erosa to get handed his 8th career KO loss. I’d expect him to win via knockout, instead.

Bet: Julian Erosa (-375)

Michal Oleksiejczuk (-200) vs. Sedriques Dumas (+170)

Michal Oleksejczuk enters the weekend as a mild favorite against Sedriques Dumas. Oleksiejczuk (19-9) has more wins, but has eaten several more losses and will lose five inches in reach in this matchup.

Oleksiejczuk has 14 KOs to his name and has the striking advantage (5.08 significant strikes landed per minute), but his recent form has been poor. He’s dropped three fights in a row and has gone just 1-4 over his last five. His lone win during that stretch was a TKO win against Chidi Njokuani – which showcases his upside – but it came in August of 2023.

There’s a ceiling with Oleksiejczuk, but he’s shown a vulnerability on the mat and Dumas has displayed enough versatility to make him a threat in this one. Normally I’d lean toward Oleksiejczuk, but the recent form and the reach advantage for Dumas make an upset a very real possibility.

Bet: Sedriques Dumas (+170)

Sumudaeriji (-187) vs. Mitch Raposo (+162)

Mitch Raposo (9-2) will look for the upset when he takes on Sumudaeriji (16-7). You’re getting way more experience with someone like Sumudaeriji, who has an insane eight-inch reach edge and is three inches taller than Raposo.

The line is weirdly tight here. Sumudaeriji also is the superior striker (4.72 significant strikes landed per minute), with his only weakness being his takedown defense. It is a glaring one, of course, as he has been submitted an astonishing six times.

This fight really boils down to whether Sumudaeriji can enforce his will with his hands, or if Raposo will exploit his lack of a submission game on the mat. Right now I favor Sumudaeriji, just because he does possess elite finishing ability (13 KOs) and Raposo hasn’t exactly dominated on the canvas.

Bet: Sumudaeriji (-187)

Marco Tulio (-320) vs. Tresean Gore (+270)

Tresean Gore isn’t very likely to score an upset this weekend. The 30-year old is an uninspiring 6-2 so far in his career, and hasn’t expressed dominant ability. He has fine versatility and has three finishes in six wins, but he had a bad loss to Cody Brundage and doesn’t have a big win to his name.

Marco Tulio (13-1) can officially say otherwise, as he TKO’d Ihor Potieria in his UFC debut this past January. Potieria has been in rapid decline, but it was still a big win and an emphatic entrance into the UFC. Tulio will obviously hope to keep that going this weekend, as he tries to score his 10th career knockout victory.

I don’t hate his chances to make it happen. There is no distinct height or reach edge here, but Tulio has one loss to his name that came way back in 2018, and he is the far more impactful fighter with his fists. I think he controls this one from the jump and punishes Gore en route to an easy win.

Bet: Marco Tulio (-320)

Nora Cornolle (-170) vs. Hailey Cowan (+145)

Lastly, we have our second female fight, with Nora Cornolle (8-2) hoping to stave off Hailey Cowan (7-3). Cornolle is two years older, but she’s the superior striker by the numbers and has six career KOs in just 10 fights.

Cornolle knows how to control fights and dictate the pace, and she sure as heck knows how to finish them. Her defense and toughness are tough to match, too, as she’s never been finished in any fashion and her only two losses have come via Decision against Jacqueline Cavalcanti.

Cowan has a respectable record so far in her MMA career, but she’s simply no match for Cornolle’s brutality. I’m a bit shocked at how tightly this fight was priced. I love the value with Cornolle and would not be shocked at all if she scored a KO.

Bet: Nora Cornolle (-170)

The Best UFC 314 Picks

The following list represents our best UFC picks for this weekend’s event:

• Michael Chandler (+147)
• Julian Erosa (-375)
• Jean Silva (-260)
• Sean Woodson (-170)

I don’t know if it’s that I want to see Paddy Pimblett get KO’d, that I love Michael Chandler’s fighting style, or that I actually believe he’ll win. Perhaps a little bit of all three. No matter what, Chandler promises to bring the damage, and he certainly has a shot to knock Paddy’s head off. I’m game for taking the shot.

Erosa is a gamble simply due to his volatile nature. I think the risk is mitigated by the fact that he’s facing the aging Elkins, however. I’d prefer a KO prop with him, but he feels like a lock at -375.

Silva is a really good bet to get a knockout, too. He is a total mismatch for Mitchell and should absolutely destroy him, provided he avoids a takedown and a submission.

There’s also Woodson, who is arguably just as safer, if not safer. He and Ige have similar styles in that they just grind their opponent to a pulp and are often the tougher dude. There’s not much finishing upside in a bout with guys like this, so you just need to lean into the slightly better fighter, which is Woodson.

UFC 314 Card

Check out the updated UFC 314 fight card: