UFC 315 Odds, Predictions and Fight Card

Pretty much no UFC events disappoint, but we’re in for guaranteed satisfaction this weekend at UFC 315. Not only do we get an awesome main event with Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena facing off, but the co-main event between Valentina Shevcenko and Manon Fiorot is honestly almost as good.

The card even features the legendary Jose Aldo, among other compelling bouts. If you are on the hunt for some UFC picks for this weekend’s fights, I’ve got you covered. I’ll walk you through the latest UFC 315 odds and go over each fight planned for Saturday, May 10th at the Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada.

Where To Watch UFC 315?

You have to pay for PPV to watch the main card, but the Early Prelims are on ESPN+ and Disney+, while the Prelims can be watched on ESPN, ESPN+, and Disney+.

What Time Does UFC 315 Start?

The main card starts at 9:00 pm EST, while you can view the Early Prelims on ESPN+ and Disney+ starting at 5:30 pm EST. The Prelims follow on ESPN, ESPN+, and Disney+ at 7:00 pm EST.

Where Is UFC 315?

Want to attend UFC 315 live and in person? Head north to Canada. This weekend’s bouts go down in Montreal, Quebec.

UFC 315 Main Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC 315 odds for the Main Card, courtesy of the top sports betting sites: 

This is an amazing fight card, starting with the main event and co-main event, which both happen to be for titles. Jack Della Maddalena is perfect inside the UFC and will get a shot due more to availability than truly deserving a crack, while Muhammad is priced like a strong favorite for good reason.

I like how there is pretty good value on both sides of the main event matches. Valentina Shevchenko is an aging champion that could easily lose to Manon Fiorot, while that reality is baked into the pricing – the champ is actually the underdog.

Nothing is egregiously priced on this card. You still have to pay for the perceived safety of most of the betting favorites, while we lost a banger with the Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Joel Alvaraz fight being scratched.

I’ll work with what is in front of me, and luckily it’s several great bouts – and that’s not even touching on the Prelims! You can roll with my UFC picks and predictions, but I continue to encourage you to utilize the sports betting handicappers available online, especially since they’re good for more than just MMA betting advice.

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UFC 315 Predictions For The Main Card

The UFC 315 main card rolls out at 9:00 pm EST on PPV.

Belal Muhammad (-225) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (+185)

Muhammad (24-3) is a solid betting favorite as he looks to defend his welterweight title belt. The last time we saw him he took care of business against Leon Edwards, adding to what is now a six-fight winning streak.

The guy is getting up there at 36 years of age, but he’s as skilled as anyone in MMA, while he hasn’t tasted defeat since 2019. He’s on a serious tear, while his defense, tenacity, and resume indicate he is one of the toughest dudes to finish on the UFC roster.

I don’t doubt Jack Della Maddalena (17-2) is up to the task, of course. The 28-year old has 12 knockouts to his name, with a KO over Gilbert Burns being his most recent example of how dangerous he can be.

JMD’s resume is strong, as he has yet to lose inside the UFC (7-0), and has also taken out big names such as Kevin Holland and Randy Brown. He offers really nice betting value as a capable underdog, but I don’t think I’ve seen enough to go against Muhammad just yet.

Bet: Belal Muhammad (-225)

Manon Fiorot (-150) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (+125)

I can safely say I was a tad surprised to see Manon Fiorot (12-1) come in as a -150 favorite to dethrone Valentina Shevchenko (24-4-1). I know that The Beast is a force to be reckoned with, but she isn’t exactly a spring chicken at age 35.

Fiorot’s record is imposing, to be sure, while she has the striking and strength (6 KOs) to get the job done. Wins over big names like Rose Namajunas remind us of her staying power, while she’s yet to be finished by anyone.

While all of that puts her in play, I would feel wrong if I turned away from the iconic Bullet, who is just two years older than her opponent and is the far more versatile fighter. She has more experience, is more adept at finishing fights, and can close things out in a variety of ways.

I know Shevchenko isn’t quite as dominant as she once was, but she did outlast Alexa Grasso in her last fight, while her only career defeats have come by the hands of Grasso, Liz Carmouche, and Amanda Nunes.

Fiorot is dangerous, and she could win. But Shevchenko is more skilled, arguably even more dangerous, and is more fun to root for. I hope I don’t regret it, but I can’t shy away from Bullet at her +125 moneyline.

Bet: Valentina Shevchenko (+125)

Jose Aldo (-235) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+190)

Can we quit Jose Aldo now? We probably should, but his -235 price tag tells me he has another victory in him, after all. Aldo has admittedly suffered from some terrible luck in his career, but he still offers an imposing 32-9 career record – one that comes with 17 KOs.

His chin has gotten softer over the years and he’s coming off an uninspiring defeat by the hands of Mario Bautista, but let’s not forget that he went the distance with Merab Dvalishvili as recently as 2022, and also dispatched Jonathan Martinez last year.

Aldo is nearing the end at age 38, but this fight sets up as a positive matchup, possibly allowing him to close his career on a high note.

That said, Aiemann Zahabi (12-2) could see this fight with a living legend as a clear stepping stone to greener pastures. He has a solid record so far, with nice wins over Pedro Munhoz and Javid Basharat in his back pocket. However, he’s missing that marquee win.

At age 37, I’m not convinced he will get it, and I find it even harder to believe he’ll find it here against a motivated Aldo. It could be close, but look for Aldo to turn back the clock and get a big win here.

Bet: Jose Aldo (-235)

Natalia Silva (-235) vs. Alexa Grasso (+190)

The main card could still gain another fight before the weekend rolls around, but for now it wraps up with Natalia Silva (18-5-1) facing off with Alexa Grasso (16-4-1).

These are two strong fighters, but it’s clear that the 28-year old Silva is heading in a different direction. She’s coming off a big win over Jessica Andrade last September, while her versatile skill-set and elite finishing ability make her an impossible task for everyone she faces.

Silva is red hot at the moment with an insane 12 wins in a row, and she’s favored to keep it rolling. That isn’t to suggest Grasso is some scrub, but her age is slowly starting to show at 31, and she’s failed to get a win in her last two fights against Valentina Shevchenko.

That isn’t anything to be ashamed about, but momentum favors the younger Silva, while she also has a slight edge in height and reach. Her superior finishing ability and fantastic form have me buying her as a -235 favorite.

Bet: Natalia Silva (-235)

UFC 315 Preliminary Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC 315 odds for the Preliminary Card.

The Prelims are surprisingly loaded. I thought the early UFC 315 fights would pale in comparison to the main card, but there are some massive bouts on the horizon.

From a pricing perspective, this is a bettor’s dream. None of the favorites on the Prelims card – or anywhere on the UFC 315 card – top -300, so we are looking at a laundry list of reasonably even bouts.

You’re getting respectable value no matter which way you turn, so I suggest you lean into some of the favorites and pick your spots when it comes to targeting UFC 315 upsets. You can just roll with my picks above, or read on for a little analysis for each fight.

UFC 315 Predictions For The Preliminary Card

Catch the Early Prelims at 5:00 pm EST and the Prelims at 7:00 pm EST.

Mike Malott (-245) vs. Charles Radtke (+200)

The Prelims promise to be fun, as evidenced by this clash between Mike Malott (11-2-1) and Charles Radtke (10-4). 

Malott is a respectable 4-1 under the UFC banner thus far, and is coming off of a Decision victory over Trevin Giles. He’s a bit vulnerable to knockouts (2 KOs already), but he has a versatile skill-set and knows how to end fights (10 of 11 wins by stoppage).

Radtke is a bit more lethal with his fists, as he eliminated Matthew Semelsberge via TKO last time out and has five KOs to his name. His defense (2 KO losses) isn’t the greatest and he has more losses on his ledger, while he also loses an inch in reach.

All things told, Malott is the favorite for a reason here. Both of these guys can be vulnerable to the KO, but he’s controlled most of his fights and knows how to set the tone early and finish. I think he can get a KO here against Radtke.

Bet: Mike Malott (-245)

Jasmine Jasudavicius (-290) vs. Jessica Andrade (+235)

The biggest betting favorite of this card is Jasmine Jasudavicius (13-3). She’s a bit long in the tooth at age 36, but you really wouldn’t know it by how she’s been fighting. She appears to still be very much in her physical prime, as she dispatched Mayra Bueno Silva in February of this year, and has now won four fights in a row.

Jadudavicius lacks elite finishing ability, but she’s in terrific form, has elite defense, and is tough as nails. She has yet to be finished in any regard, and my gut tells me that a once brutal Jessica Andrade (26-13) is a poor bet to be the first to knock her out.

Andrade is no slouch, but she’s just 2-4 over her last six bouts and simply doesn’t possess the same KO ability she used to. She does have the ability to end the fight in a multitude of ways – something I usually cite for viable underdogs. I like her price and resume, but I don’t think she’s the better fighter in this one.

Bet: Jasmine Jasudavicius (-290)

Modestas Bukauskas (-115) vs. Ion Cutelaba (-110)

I whiffed on betting against Ion Cutelaba the last time he fought. Did I learn my lesson? Probably not. I respect this knockout power, but the guy has a soft chin and leaves himself open to wild shots.

Due to that, I am immediately interested in backing Modestas Bukauskas (17-6), who has comparable striking stats and 10 knockouts to his name. The reality is both of these guys bring vicious power to the table, but they leave themselves vulnerable to early finishes.

Ultimately, I lean toward Bukauskas, as he owns a three-inch reach advantage and has been a bit more impressive of late. This is admittedly probably the toughest fight to call on this card, and I wouldn’t be that shocked if it went either way.

Bukauskas gives us a little more bang for our buck, however, and I think he’s a better bet to score a win via stoppage as well.

Bet: Modestas Bukauskas (-115)

Navajo Sterling (-280) vs. Ivan Erslan (+230)

The 27-year old Navajo Sterling (6-0) enters UFC 315 with a perfect record. He has four KOs to his name and brings staggering striking to the table. His UFC debut didn’t end with an early stoppage, but he still took care of business in a Decision win over George Tokkos.

Sterling has the edge in his bout with Ivan Erslan (14-4), as he is the superior striker, he has proven knockout power, and he sports a massive 6.5-inch reach advantage. The downside, of course, is Sterling has just six career fights behind him, and he hasn’t displayed much versatility.

Erslan is much more experienced, but he’s been inconsistent of late, going just 3-3 over his last six fights. He does have finishing ability (10 KOs), and each of his last eight victories have come via early stoppage.

He is definitely in play for the upset, but Sterling has the edge in striking when you look at the numbers, plus the huge reach gap should allow him to dictate the pace.

Bet: Navajo Sterling (-280)

Marc-Andre Barriault (-150) vs. Bruno Silva (+125)

Next up is Marc-Andre Barriault (16-9), who is reeling these days behind three consecutive losses. He does have finishing ability (10 knockouts), but he’s struggled against top competition. Even so, he TKO’d Julian Marquez as recently as 2023 and he has the ability to end fights early.

Barriault and his opponent, Bruno Silva (23-12) are both 35, and there’s no clear advantage when looking at height and reach. Barriault does hold the edge in terms of damage inflicted, however, as he averages 5.98 significant strikes landed per minute, whereas Silva averages 3.85.

This looks to be a fairly even matchup, as Silva’s history (20 KOs!) suggests he can end this fight at any point, but his recent form (four straight losses) may say otherwise. It’s also disconcerting that he is not a submission threat in any regard, and has actually tapped out a whopping seven times in his career.

Silva’s striking gives him a shot, but I trust Barriault’s power and slightly better versatility.

Bet: Marc-Andre Barriault (-150)

Bekzat Almakhan (-185) vs. Brad Katona (+155)

Another fight that is evenly priced sees Bezkat Almakhan (11-2) take on Brad Katona (16-4). Katona comes in as the mild underdog despite having more experience, as he’s six years older and also is at a reach disadvantage by four inches.

Katona is no slouch, though. He is an impactful striker, and knows how to get the fight to the ground and maintain control. He’s also incredibly tough with solid defense, having never been finished in his entire career.

While Katona is a bit of a brute, he also lacks finishing ability. He has three submissions and a knockout, but otherwise he looks to win with damage and points. That approach may not get it done here, especially since Akmakhan has enjoyed better form lately. In fact, his only loss in the last four years came against Umar Nurmagomedov, which is nothing to be ashamed of.

I think this one is close, and don’t exactly anticipate a win by stoppage. However, Almakhan has the better resume, is younger, and has the reach edge.

Bet: Bezkat Almakhan (-185)

Daniel Santos (-125) vs. JeongYeong Lee (+105)

Lastly, we have Daniel Santos (12-2) as the tiniest of favorites as he prepares to take on JeongYeong Lee (11-2). Santos has had a bit of a layoff with his last fight coming in 2023, but he’s won his last two bouts, has never been finished, and brings eight wins via stoppage to the table.

Santos does lose 6.5-inches in reach to his opponent, which could be problematic when you realize Lee is the more accurate striker. The Korean Tiger got TKO’d in his last fight, but is 4-1 in the UFC and had been on a eight-fight run.

Lee offers nice versatility and with his huge reach edge, should be able to limit Santos’ power. I expect a close fight and don’t mind rolling the dice on Lee at his nice +105 price.

Bet: JeongYeong Lee (+105)

The Best UFC 315 Picks

The following list represents our best UFC picks for this weekend’s event:

• Belal Muhammad (-225)
• Valentina Shevchenko (+125)
• Jasmine Jasudavicius (-290)

There are a lot of great UFC 315 bets worth rolling with, as well as some fun upset picks to consider. I think backing Valentina Shevchenko allows you to do both. I know the end will arrive for her at some point, but I’m not banking on it coming this weekend.

Bullet remains highly skilled and as good as Fiorot has looked, she’s not much younger, nor is she necessarily any more dangerous than the previous tests Valentina has passed. The best part, of course, is you get to bet on Shevchenko at plus money.

Belal Muhammad’s price isn’t quite as inviting and he’s another greybeard we need to hope doesn’t instantly fall off. However, he looked fantastic in his last fight against Leon Edwards, and there’s a very real case to be made for Jack Della Maddalena not being entirely deserving of this fight.

I also feel very confident in Jasmine Jasudavicius getting a win. Jessica Andrade historically has terrific finishing ability, but Jasmine is impossible to put down and she is in a groove right now. Between the two, it feels much more likely that Andrade is the one on her way down.

UFC 315 Card

Check out the updated UFC 315 fight card: