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UFC 317 odds are out, meaning you can get bets in early for some of the best fights of the year. Two title belts are on the line, with Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira duking it out for the Lightweight title, and Alexandre Pantoja set to defend his Flyweight title against Kai Kara-France.
If this card doesn’t provide fireworks, I’m not sure what will. Just those two main card bouts alone are reason to tune in when the first fighters touch gloves in Las Vegas on Saturday, June 28th. There’s more, though, with Beneil Dariush, Brandon Royval, and Paolo Costa rounding out an insanely loaded fight card.
And, if you missed any of the recent PPV for UFC Fight Night events, then check out our updated UFC Fight Results each and every week.
So, how do you bet on UFC 317? I’ve got you covered with my top UFC picks for this event, and I’ll also walk you through the latest odds for each bout.
Where To Watch UFC 317?
The Early Prelims get the action started on ESPN+ and Disney+, while the Prelims will air on those two channels, but also ESPN. You’ll need to purchase the main card on PPV, however.
What Time Does UFC 317 Start?
UFC 317 starts at 5:00 pm EST with the Early Prelims, with the Prelims following at 7:00 pm EST. The main card fires off on PPV at 9:00 pm EST.
Where Is UFC 317?
UFC 317 will go down in Las Vegas, Nevada at the T-Mobile Arena.
UFC 317 Main Card Odds
Check out the latest UFC 317 odds for the Main Card, courtesy of the top sports betting sites:
UFC Favorite | UFC Underdog | UFC Prediction |
---|---|---|
Ilia Topuria (-400) | Charles Oliveira (+300) | Charles Oliveira (+300) |
Alexandre Pantoja (-240) | Kai Kara-France (+205) | Alexandre Pantoja (-240) |
Roman Kopylov (-235) | Paulo Costa (+200) | Roman Kopylov (-235) |
Renato Moicano (-170) | Beneil Dariush (+145) | Beneil Dariush (+145) |
Jhonata Diniz (-310) | Justin Tafa (+260) | Jhonata Diniz (-310) |
This is an awesome fight card and the main card alone is reason to get excited. Not only are two titles in play, but the biggest favorite is only Ilia Topuria at -400. He’s undefeated and amazing, but even his odds feel a tad inflated.
The point? We could be in for a tightly contested main card, and that could also make for plenty of betting value. I would not be shy about targeting upsets on this card, but I looked at every fight and provided my UFC 317 picks above.
You can roll with my predictions, or read on for more analysis before placing your bets. Of course, if you’d like even more help, don’t hesitate to tap into the best sports betting handicappers you’ll find online.
UFC 317 Predictions For The Main Card
The UFC 317 main card gets going at 9:00 pm EST on PPV.
Ilia Topuria (-400) vs. Charles Oliveira (+300)
This is a very exciting fight that I feel should have been priced a bit tighter. Ilia Topuria (16-0) is deserving of this title shot and has been insanely dominant en route to a perfect record. His resume is impressive, as he finished big names like Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski in his last two fights.
The 28-year old is on the rise, to be sure, and he has the versatility to handle a skilled MMA star like Oliveira Topuria can finish anyone at any time, as he has KO power (6 KOs), but is also nasty on the mat (8 submissions). He also edges out his opponent in significant striking, and is on par in takedown success.
Of course, Oliveira is one tough nut to crack. He’s far more experienced than Topuria, he’s a former champion, and he can finish anyone in a number of ways. He has 10 career knockouts to his name, but he’s also a dynamo on the canvas (21 submissions).
Oliveira has a pretty significant reach advantage (5 inches), and is as battle tested as they come. He has some overall vulnerability (finished 8 times), but the only guy to stop him in the past seven years is Islam Makhachev. Since that loss, Oliveira is just 2-1, but he outlasted the explosive Michael Chandler and TKO’d Benei Dariush.
I think it’s easy to crown Topuria here, but I have a hard time getting away from Oliveira’s experience, versatility, and reach edge. He’s also nearing the end at 35, so this may be his last true shot at the title. I also think this could set up a big Topuria vs. Oliveira 2 match, or even a trilogy.
Topuria might be the safer bet, but I am swinging for the fences at UFC 317.
Bet: Charles Oliveira (+300)
Alexandre Pantoja (-240) vs. Kai Kara-France (+205)
The other huge UFC 317 main card fight is for another title, with Alexandre Pantoja putting his Flyweight belt on the line. Pantoja (29-5) is a little older and loses a couple of inches in reach, but it’s fair to say he has been the more dominant fighter in his career.
Pantoja is more aggressive and more successful with takedowns, and these guys are pretty similar in the striking department by the numbers. Pantoja is super versatile with 11 submissions and 8 KOs, plus he is tough as hell, having never been finished in 33 fights.
Pantoja enters this title defense bout riding a seven-fight winning streak, and it’s arguable he should be a bigger favorite against Kara-France. That isn’t to knock Kara-France, of course, as the 32-year old is a nasty striker with explosive upside of his own.
Kara-France (25-11) has eaten a lot of losses, but he’s a threat to ice any opponent on any given MMA slate. He did just that against Steve Erceg in his last bout, and has finished his opponent in three of his last four wins. He is admittedly inconsistent, however, as he’s just 1-2 over his last three fights and can be vulnerable to getting stopped early (six losses by stoppage).
Pantoja’s time to relinquish this title belt will come in short order, and Kara-France is always live for the KO upset, but I think the better fighter prevails in this one.
Bet: Alexandre Pantoja (-240)
Roman Kopylov (-235) vs. Paulo Costa (+200)
I feel like each passing UFC 317 fight is only a tiny step down from the one before it. It doesn’t seem like that long ago where the lethal Paulo Costa was headlining UFC events, but after a dominant start, he’s dropped four of five fights and stands in at just 14-4.
Costa can still KO anyone in front of him (11 KOs), but he’s a pretty one-dimensional fighter that has wilted in the face of elite competition. Most of his losses are against top shelf fighters like Sean Strickland and his lone KO defeat came by the hands of Israel Adesanya, but the reality is he hasn’t been able to freely enforce his will in some time.
It’s fair to wonder if that changes against Roman Kopylov (14-3), who has a three-inch reach edge and is a bit more versatile. The power still leans toward Costa and he always has a shot to end the fight early, but Kopylow is equally imposing (12 career knockouts) and has never been KO’d.
Instead of a Costa redemption arc, I think we’ll look back at a guy who was very good, but not necessarily great. Either of these guys can end this thing in a hurry, but history suggests Kopylov is the likelier fighter to do that and if it goes the distance, I think he has the leg up.
Bet: Roman Kopylov (-235)
Renato Moicano (-170) vs. Beneil Dariush (+145)
We have yet another huge UFC 317 fight on our hands, even though we’re getting further and further away from the main event. There’s no title on the line here, but you wouldn’t know it when you’re dealing with massive names such as Renato Moicano (20-6-1) and Beneil Dariush (22-6-1).
These guys are very similar in a lot of ways, which could make for a Fight of the Night contender if all goes well. Seriously, they’re both 36 years old, come in at a similar height, have the same exact reach, have very similar records, and grade out as nearly identical producers across the board.
The differentiator could be recent form, though. Dariush has regressed, losing both of his last two bouts via KO. That snapped an eight-fight winning streak and ended an era of dominance that saw him take out the likes of Tony Ferguson, Mateusz Gamrot, and Drew Dober.
Dariush is a versatile finisher, but he has a soft chin (5 KO losses) and is running into a guy in Moicano that has one loss since 2022 and it came against Islam Makhachev. He’s otherwise been running through whoever the UFC throws at him, as he took out Benoit St. Denis (TKO) two fights ago, and is 4-1 over his last five.
That said, I am chasing the value here. This fight is incredibly tough to call and so tight in just about every way. I’ll take Dariush at +145 to get his career back on track, if only temporarily.
Bet: Beneil Dariush (+145)
Jhonata Diniz (-310) vs. Justin Tafa (+260)
I think you can legitimately go either way on every UFC 317 main card fight. Yes, even this one, where Jhonata Diniz (8-1) is a sizable favorite to best Justin Tafa (7-5).
Tafa has more experience and these are heavyweights we’re dealing with, so truly anyone can score a KO and nobody would be that shocked. Tafa is the slightly more accurate striker and inflicts a little more damage, but his record is less than impressive and he’s been KO’d twice. His recent form is also a bit suspect, as he’s dropped two fights in a row.
Diniz has been the more dominant fighter to this point. He’s two years older and has less experience, but he also has a nice 5.5-inch reach advantage. Getting TKO’d by Marcin Tybura in his last fight is a bit discouraging, but that is his first ever loss and it is one he can potentially learn from.
Tafa is an upset threat, but Diniz is the big favorite for a reason. I expect him to live up to that billing and I think he can get a knockout here.
Bet: Jhonata Diniz (-310)
UFC 317 Preliminary Card Odds
Check out the latest UFC 317 odds for the Preliminary Card.
UFC Favorite | UFC Underdog | UFC Prediction |
---|---|---|
Manel Kape (-255) | Brandon Royval (+215) | Brandon Royval (+215) |
Gregory Rodrigues (-180) | Jack Hermansson (+155) | Jack Hermansson (+155) |
Tracy Cortez (-240) | Viviane Araujo (+205) | Tracy Cortez (-240) |
The Early Prelims and Prelims odds aren’t finalized, as it’s a bit early yet and the UFC 317 fight card will have more bouts added before long.
For now, these are the three confirmed fights preceding the main card, and by the looks of it, bettors have quite a bit to chew on. All three of these bouts are nicely priced, so you could argue for either side.
I’ve got my picks featured here, but I’ll dive into the Prelims fights a bit more below.
UFC 317 Predictions For The Preliminary Card
Catch the Prelims starting at 5:00 pm EST on Disney+ and ESPN+.
Manel Kape (-255) vs. Brandon Royval (+215)
This is a very interesting fight, as it’s pretty tough to call and it has two big names that are definitely main card worthy. That said, Kape (21-7) and Royval (17-7) settle for the Prelims, as they’ll go at each other in an effort to move up the standings.
Royval has a decorated history in the UFC, as he has nine career submissions and is an extremely tough out. In his 24 career matches, he’s been finished jus twice, and his only three losses in the last five years have come against Alexandre Pantoja (twice) and Brandon Moreno.
On top of that, Royval is 5-1 over his last six fights, and he offers solid versatility and top shelf finishing ability. He can do major damage on the ground, but with 13 of his 17 wins ending early, he is a threat to get it done in a number of ways.
That’s even more so the case for Kape, who has 13 KOs to his name, but is also solid on the canvas (5 submissions). He’s never been KO’d, but he’s been submitted twice in his career and between the two, is certainly the worse submission artist.
I think this one all comes down to who can enforce their will. Kape is the guy more likely to get the KO, but his only real weakness is on the floor. Considering that is what Royval does best, I think he’s a sneaky upset pick.
Bet: Brandon Royval (+215)
Gregory Rodrigues (-180) vs. Jack Hermansson (+155)
Next up is the 16-6 Gregor Rodrigues against Jack Hermansson (24-8). Hermansson is three years older at 36, and grades out as the slightly weaker fighter across the board. Rodrigues edges him out in significant strikes, striking accuracy, and takedown offense.
Rodrigues is a KO artist (10 KOs), but he’s definitely got a soft chin and we saw it on fully display in a TKO defeat by the hands of Jared Cannonier in his last fight. He’d been in good form before that, though, as he won five of his previous six fights. His last two losses have both come via stoppage, however.
Hermansson is no stranger to getting finished himself, but he’s the more versatile fighter (17 career finishes), with six submissions to go with his 11 knockouts. He’s been up and down lately, but he had an impressive Decision win over Joe Pyfer in his last fight and also went the distance with Edmen Shahbayzan back in 2021.
A lot has happened since then, but I like the value with Hermansson here. Rodrigues is dangerous, but his last loss is an eyebrow raiser. I’ll take a shot on Hermansson showing the world that the end is near for Robocop.
Bet: Jack Hermansson (+155)
Tracy Cortez (-240) vs. Viviane Araujo (+205)
The last fight of UFC 317 (for now) is the only female bout currently on the docket. It pits Tracy Cortez (11-2) against Viviane Araujo (13-6) and feels like one of the easier bouts to call.
Cortez has less experience, but she also is seven years younger and compares favorably with her opponent statistically. Both of these ladies can inflict some damage with their striking, but Cortez is the slightly better takedown artist.
That hasn’t led to many finishes, which is always a little troubling when backing someone at -240. She has just one KO and one submission, with all of her other nine victories coming via Decision. Leaving your fate in the hands of the judges is never ideal, but she did make Rose Namajunas earn it in her last fight, and she also outlasted Jasmine Jasudavicius the fight before that.
Aruajo has more fights under her belt and proven finishing experience, but she’s far older and hasn’t fared very well against top flight competition. She’s coming off a win, but is just 2-3 over her last five fights.
It doesn’t feel amazing, but I am betting on youth and talent and taking Cortez to edge out Araujo.
Bet: Tracy Cortez (-240)
The Best UFC 317 Picks
The following list represents our best UFC picks for this weekend’s event:
- Charles Oliveira (+300)
- Alexandre Pantoja (-240)
- Jhonata Diniz (-310)
I will freely admit that this is one of the more difficult UFC cards to predict. Not only are a lot of these fights priced tightly, but they’re just really good matchups with strong fighters.
Because of that, I feel like Oliveira is the best value on the board. Is Topuria on the rise and possibly the better fighter? Sure, but narrative street is a thing. Oliveira may very well be looking at his last title shot, and most undefeated fighters get tripped up at some point. Don’t be shocked if Topuria’s path to a championship belt is a rocky one at first.
Pantoja feels like an easy call. Obviously anything can happen in the world of mixed martial arts, and I’m well aware of Kara-France’s KO ability. But is he better than Pantoja? No.
Diniz isn’t an amazing value and he’s coming off of his first career loss, but this does have the feel of a gimme pick. He’s facing a “meh” challenger and should be able to bounce-back nicely. I think he’s fairly safe and I’d also entertain his KO prop.
UFC 317 Card
Check out the updated UFC 317 fight card:
UFC Favorite | UFC Underdog | UFC Prediction |
---|---|---|
Ilia Topuria (-400) | Charles Oliveira (+300) | Charles Oliveira (+300) |
Alexandre Pantoja (-240) | Kai Kara-France (+205) | Alexandre Pantoja (-240) |
Roman Kopylov (-235) | Paulo Costa (+200) | Roman Kopylov (-235) |
Renato Moicano (-170) | Beneil Dariush (+145) | Beneil Dariush (+145) |
Jhonata Diniz (-310) | Justin Tafa (+260) | Jhonata Diniz (-310) |
Manel Kape (-255) | Brandon Royval (+215) | Brandon Royval (+215) |
Gregory Rodrigues (-180) | Jack Hermansson (+155) | Jack Hermansson (+155) |
Tracy Cortez (-240) | Viviane Araujo (+205) | Tracy Cortez (-240) |