UFC 317 Odds, Predictions and How To Watch

Last Updated on

UFC 317 odds are out, meaning you can get bets in early for some of the best fights of the year. Two title belts are on the line, with Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira duking it out for the Lightweight title, and Alexandre Pantoja set to defend his Flyweight title against Kai Kara-France.

If this card doesn’t provide fireworks, I’m not sure what will. Just those two main card bouts alone are reason to tune in when the first fighters touch gloves in Las Vegas on Saturday, June 28th. There’s more, though, with Beneil Dariush and Brandon Royval rounding out an insanely loaded fight card.

So, how do you bet on UFC 317? I’ve got you covered with my top UFC picks for this event, and I’ll also walk you through the latest odds for each bout.

Where To Watch UFC 317?

The Early Prelims get the action started on ESPN+ and Disney+, while the Prelims will air on those two channels, but also ESPN. You’ll need to purchase the main card on PPV, however.

What Time Does UFC 317 Start?

UFC 317 starts at 5:00 pm EST with the Early Prelims, with the Prelims following at 7:00 pm EST. The main card fires off on PPV at 9:00 pm EST.

Where Is UFC 317?

UFC 317 will go down in Las Vegas, Nevada at the T-Mobile Arena.

UFC 317 Main Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC 317 odds for the Main Card, courtesy of the top sports betting sites

UFC FavoriteUFC UnderdogUFC Prediction
Ilia Topuria (-400)Charles Oliveira (+300)Charles Oliveira (+300)
Alexandre Pantoja (-240)Kai Kara-France (+205)Alexandre Pantoja (-240)
Joshua Van (-120)Brandon Royval (+100)Brandon Royval (+100)
Renato Moicano (-170)Beneil Dariush (+145)Beneil Dariush (+145)
Felipe Lima (-185)Payton Talbott (+160)Felipe Lima

This is an awesome fight card and the main card alone is reason to get excited. Not only are two titles in play, but the biggest favorite is only Ilia Topuria at -400. He’s undefeated and amazing, but even his odds feel a tad inflated.

The point? We could be in for a tightly contested main card, and that could also make for plenty of betting value. I would not be shy about targeting upsets on this card, but I looked at every fight and provided my UFC 317 picks above.

We did see some changes to this card, as Paulo Costa withdrew, and we have two different fights entering the main card. Felipe Lima vs. Payton Talbott is a brand new fight, while Brandon Royval still has a fight thanks to Joshua Van stepping in to face him on short notice.

You can roll with my predictions, or read on for more analysis before placing your bets. Of course, if you’d like even more help, don’t hesitate to tap into the best sports betting handicappers you’ll find online.

sas logo

Step Inside

The Betting Octagon
For Elite UFC Picks!

UFC 317 Predictions For The Main Card

The UFC 317 main card gets going at 9:00 pm EST on PPV.

Ilia Topuria (-400) vs. Charles Oliveira (+300)

This is a very exciting fight that I feel should have been priced a bit tighter. Ilia Topuria (16-0) is deserving of this title shot and has been insanely dominant en route to a perfect record. His resume is impressive, as he finished big names like Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski in his last two fights.

The 28-year old is on the rise, to be sure, and he has the versatility to handle a skilled MMA star like Oliveira Topuria can finish anyone at any time, as he has KO power (6 KOs), but is also nasty on the mat (8 submissions). He also edges out his opponent in significant striking, and is on par in takedown success.

Of course, Oliveira is one tough nut to crack. He’s far more experienced than Topuria, he’s a former champion, and he can finish anyone in a number of ways. He has 10 career knockouts to his name, but he’s also a dynamo on the canvas (21 submissions).

Oliveira has a pretty significant reach advantage (5 inches), and is as battle tested as they come. He has some overall vulnerability (finished 8 times), but the only guy to stop him in the past seven years is Islam Makhachev. Since that loss, Oliveira is just 2-1, but he outlasted the explosive Michael Chandler and TKO’d Benei Dariush.

I think it’s easy to crown Topuria here, but I have a hard time getting away from Oliveira’s experience, versatility, and reach edge. He’s also nearing the end at 35, so this may be his last true shot at the title. I also think this could set up a big Topuria vs. Oliveira 2 match, or even a trilogy.

Topuria might be the safer bet, but I am swinging for the fences at UFC 317.

Bet: Charles Oliveira (+300)

Alexandre Pantoja (-240) vs. Kai Kara-France (+205)

The other huge UFC 317 main card fight is for another title, with Alexandre Pantoja putting his Flyweight belt on the line. Pantoja (29-5) is a little older and loses a couple of inches in reach, but it’s fair to say he has been the more dominant fighter in his career.

Pantoja is more aggressive and more successful with takedowns, and these guys are pretty similar in the striking department by the numbers. Pantoja is super versatile with 11 submissions and 8 KOs, plus he is tough as hell, having never been finished in 33 fights.

Pantoja enters this title defense bout riding a seven-fight winning streak, and it’s arguable he should be a bigger favorite against Kara-France. That isn’t to knock Kara-France, of course, as the 32-year old is a nasty striker with explosive upside of his own.

Kara-France (25-11) has eaten a lot of losses, but he’s a threat to ice any opponent on any given MMA slate. He did just that against Steve Erceg in his last bout, and has finished his opponent in three of his last four wins. He is admittedly inconsistent, however, as he’s just 1-2 over his last three fights and can be vulnerable to getting stopped early (six losses by stoppage).

Pantoja’s time to relinquish this title belt will come in short order, and Kara-France is always live for the KO upset, but I think the better fighter prevails in this one.

Bet: Alexandre Pantoja (-240)

Joshua Van (-120) vs. Brandon Royval (+100)

Brandon Royval (17-7) steps in for Manel Kape, who had to bow out of UFC 317. Royval hasn’t fought since 2024, but he is taking this fight on short notice to accelerate his shot at a title.

Royval has been in solid form, as he’s bounced back from a 2023 Decision loss to Alexandre Pantoja with two straight wins. He’s now 5-1 over his last six bouts, and he brings an elite floor game (9 submissions) and strong finishing ability to the table.

He will have his work cut out for him against the slightly favored Van (14-2), who has been quite active with two bouts in 2025 already. It’s with wondering if so many fights in one year will begin to wear Van down, but he clearly has his sights on quickly earning his way to a title shot.

Van has been on fire lately, as he TKO’d Bruno Silva in his last fight, and has ripped off four wins in a row. He doesn’t bring the same floor game his opponent does, but he’s a striking dynamo with seven KOs and nine finishes overall.

Van is much younger, but he lacks the same experience Royval does. He does have superior striking, but Royval can hold his own and has a major edge on the floor – not to mention a significant height and reach edge. I like the chances of a mild upset in this one.

Bet: Brandon Royval (+100)

Renato Moicano (-170) vs. Beneil Dariush (+145)

We have yet another huge UFC 317 fight on our hands, even though we’re getting further and further away from the main event. There’s no title on the line here, but you wouldn’t know it when you’re dealing with massive names such as Renato Moicano (20-6-1) and Beneil Dariush (22-6-1).

These guys are very similar in a lot of ways, which could make for a Fight of the Night contender if all goes well. Seriously, they’re both 36 years old, come in at a similar height, have the same exact reach, have very similar records, and grade out as nearly identical producers across the board.

The differentiator could be recent form, though. Dariush has regressed, losing both of his last two bouts via KO. That snapped an eight-fight winning streak and ended an era of dominance that saw him take out the likes of Tony Ferguson, Mateusz Gamrot, and Drew Dober.

Dariush is a versatile finisher, but he has a soft chin (5 KO losses) and is running into a guy in Moicano that has one loss since 2022 and it came against Islam Makhachev. He’s otherwise been running through whoever the UFC throws at him, as he took out Benoit St. Denis (TKO) two fights ago, and is 4-1 over his last five.

That said, I am chasing the value here. This fight is incredibly tough to call and so tight in just about every way. I’ll take Dariush at +145 to get his career back on track, if only temporarily.

Bet: Beneil Dariush (+145)

Felipe Lima (-185) vs. Payton Talbott (+160)

When I first wrote this UFC 317 betting preview, a lot of the Prelims fights weren’t even announced yet. This Felipe Lima (14-1) vs. Payton Talbott (9-1) bout was one that was added to this card, and it has the makings of a banger.

Lima is going to be a tough out for Talbott, as he has not lost since his professional MMA debut way back in 2015. That came via submission, and since then he’s staved off all kinds of potential finishes, working his way to a 14-fight winning streak and seven finishes of his own.

His experience inside the UFC is limited, but he’s 2-0 so far with wins over Muhammadjon Naimov and Miles Johns. He comes in with more experience than Talbott, who tasted defeat for the first time in his last fight against Raoni Barcelos.

The loss to Barcelos isn’t a shameful one and Talbott has yet to be finished across 10 fights, but I think he’ll struggle with another seasoned MMA fighter who won’t go down easily. Talbott has seven KOs to his name and has dominated weaker competition, but once he faced a truly legit fighter hunting for the knockout got a lot harder.

Talbott’s knockout ability keeps him in play as a fun underdog, but I think Lima is the correct call and still offers plenty of betting value.

Bet: Felipe Lima (-185)

UFC 317 Preliminary Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC 317 odds for the Preliminary Card.

UFC FavoriteUFC UnderdogUFC Prediction
Gregory Rodrigues (-180)Jack Hermansson (+155)Jack Hermansson (+155)
Tracy Cortez (-240)Viviane Araujo (+205)Tracy Cortez (-240)
Jhonata Diniz (-350)Alvin Hines (+290)Jhonata Diniz (-350)
Terrance McKinney (-164)Viacheslav Borshchev (+144)Terrance McKinney (-164)
Jose Delgado (-160)Hyder Amil (+140)Jose Delgado (-160)
Christopher Ewert (-130)Jackson McVey (+110)Jackson McVey (+110)
Jacobe Smith (-2500)Niko Price (+1200)Jacobe Smith (-2500)

The Early Prelims and Prelims odds are now finalized, with several exciting fights being added. Brandon Royval got a replacement match and ascended to the main card, while we got a few new bouts, including a massive favorite in Jacobe Smith.

Things are always subject to change when it comes to the UFC, but for now, this is the Prelims card and it looks pretty inviting.

I’ve got my picks featured here, but I’ll dive into the Prelims fights a bit more below.

UFC 317 Predictions For The Preliminary Card

Catch the Prelims starting at 5:00 pm EST on Disney+ and ESPN+.

Gregory Rodrigues (-180) vs. Jack Hermansson (+155)

Next up is the 16-6 Gregor Rodrigues against Jack Hermansson (24-8). Hermansson is three years older at 36, and grades out as the slightly weaker fighter across the board. Rodrigues edges him out in significant strikes, striking accuracy, and takedown offense.

Rodrigues is a KO artist (10 KOs), but he’s definitely got a soft chin and we saw it on fully display in a TKO defeat by the hands of Jared Cannonier in his last fight. He’d been in good form before that, though, as he won five of his previous six fights. His last two losses have both come via stoppage, however.

Hermansson is no stranger to getting finished himself, but he’s the more versatile fighter (17 career finishes), with six submissions to go with his 11 knockouts. He’s been up and down lately, but he had an impressive Decision win over Joe Pyfer in his last fight and also went the distance with Edmen Shahbayzan back in 2021.

A lot has happened since then, but I like the value with Hermansson here. Rodrigues is dangerous, but his last loss is an eyebrow raiser. I’ll take a shot on Hermansson showing the world that the end is near for Robocop.

Bet: Jack Hermansson (+155)

Tracy Cortez (-240) vs. Viviane Araujo (+205)

The last fight of UFC 317 (for now) is the only female bout currently on the docket. It pits Tracy Cortez (11-2) against Viviane Araujo (13-6) and feels like one of the easier bouts to call.

Cortez has less experience, but she also is seven years younger and compares favorably with her opponent statistically. Both of these ladies can inflict some damage with their striking, but Cortez is the slightly better takedown artist.

That hasn’t led to many finishes, which is always a little troubling when backing someone at -240. She has just one KO and one submission, with all of her other nine victories coming via Decision. Leaving your fate in the hands of the judges is never ideal, but she did make Rose Namajunas earn it in her last fight, and she also outlasted Jasmine Jasudavicius the fight before that.

Aruajo has more fights under her belt and proven finishing experience, but she’s far older and hasn’t fared very well against top flight competition. She’s coming off a win, but is just 2-3 over her last five fights.

It doesn’t feel amazing, but I am betting on youth and talent and taking Cortez to edge out Araujo.

Bet: Tracy Cortez (-240)

Jhonata Diniz (-355) vs. Alvin Hines (+290)

With Justin Tafa having to pull out of UFC 317, Jhonata Diniz (8-1) will now face Alvin Hines (7-0). Diniz is a hefty betting favorite here, even though Hines is undefeated and has displayed a solid skill-set with six finishes in seven wins.

This will be the UFC debut for Hines, though, so it’s a big step up in competition. In addition, he loses 5.5 inches in reach and two inches in height to his opponent. That’s a pretty big deal, as he does have power in both his fists and feet, but they could get negated a bit by the ground he’ll have to cover.

Ultimately, Diniz has a little more experience in general and Hines has yet to face anyone worth mentioning. He’s a fun value bet at +290 and he has a chance if the fight stays on the feet like I think it will, but Diniz’s reach and the fact that this is on such short notice benefits the favorite.

Bet: Jhonata Diniz (-355)

Terrance McKinney (-164) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (+144)

It’s been an up and down ride for Terrance McKinney (16-7), who is just 3-3 over his last six fights. He is known for his elite finishing ability, as well as his lack of top shelf defense and general recklessness.

Seriously, the dude has zero fights that have gone the distance. He has top level versatility (8 KOs and 8 submissions), but he also has a weak chin (5 KOs) and he leaves himself open to major damage routinely. His explosiveness makes him a really fun bet at -164, though, and at age 30, he’s still in his physical prime.

Fighters like McKinney make underdog bets more fun, but it’s worth noting that Borshchev (8-5-1) might not be the guy who can take advantage. To his credit, he’s never been KO’d, but he is a one-trick pony who can struggle to finish fights. That’s bee the case lately, as he’s just 2-4-1 over his last seven bouts.

Both of these guys are seeking a win in a bad way, but I definitely lean McKinney. He is always going to keep the underdog in play, but his aggressiveness is also a positive attribute. I think he hands Viacheslav his first KO loss this weekend.

Bet: Terrance McKinney (-164)

Jose Delgado (-160) vs. Hyder Amil (+140)

We have another nicely priced affair between Jose Delgado (9-1) and the undefeated Hyder Amil (11-0). Delgado is another fighter who has refused to hear the bell in his fights, as all nine of his wins have ended early, and his lone loss came via Decision.

He hasn’t tasted defeat in some time, as his only loss came by the hands of Chris Mecate back in 2023. He’s been quite active ever since, going 6-0 since then, with a KO win over Connor Matthews being his most recent win. That was an emphatic UFC debut for Delgado, who hopes to build on his growing resume.

Amil has yet to lose, of course, and he’s shown well in the UFC (3-0) with two KO wins thus far. He’s eight years older with less versatility, but he has knockout ability and has never been finished in any manner.

I respect Amil’s record and experience thus far in the UFC, but I am leaning Delgado. He’s far younger, he offers more versatility, and he also possesses a three-inch reach advantage.

Bet: Jose Delgado (-160)

Christopher Ewert (-130) vs. Jackson McVey (+110)

This one is priced even tighter, with Christopher Ewert (7-0) and Jackson McVey (6-0) both outing unblemished MMA records on the line.

Ewert has been quite dominant across multiple promotions, racking up five KO wins and only letting two of his fights go the distance. He is the older fighter by four years, and he also comes in at a height and reach disadvantage.

McVey has one less fight on his resume, but has finished his opponent in every fight and has displayed nice versatility in the process. He will also be making his UFC debut, and will come in with size advantages.

This is a tough one to call, but McVey’s dominance and physical edge have him looking like the better bet.

Bet: Jackson McVey (+110)

Jacobe Smith (-2500) vs. Niko Price (+1200)

Most of the UFC 317 Prelims fights are going to be difficult to figure out, but this showdown between Jacobe Smith (10-0) and Niko Price (16-8) is the most lopsided MMA moneyline I personally have ever written up.

Smith is an obscene betting favorite, as the 29-year old rising star prepares to fight under the UFC banner for just the second time officially. He has been amazing to this point, earning a knockout in eight of 10 bouts, and winning his UFC debut with a KO of Preston Parsons.

Niko Price is a big name that has been with the UFC for ages, and with 10 KOs under his belt, an upset isn’t technically impossible. He has the experience and competition edge, and we know he can finish fights. But Price is 35 years old now, and he hasn’t finished anyone since 2019.

His recent record isn’t encouraging, either, as he’s been sliding for some time with a 2-4 mark over his last six fights. Price is going to be overmatched here, and appears to simply be a stepping stone for Smith to prove himself further as he inches to an inevitable title shot.

The question isn’t if Smith will win; it’s if he can knock a seasoned veteran out. Price can be tough, but with 5 KO losses to his name, he’s a walking knockout for a guy like Smith. I wouldn’t bet the ML, but an inside the distance win or knockout should be appealing.

Bet: Jacobe Smith (-2500)

The Best UFC 317 Picks

The following list represents our best UFC picks for this weekend’s event:

  • Charles Oliveira (+300)
  • Alexandre Pantoja (-240)
  • Jhonata Diniz (-310)

I will freely admit that this is one of the more difficult UFC cards to predict. Not only are a lot of these fights priced tightly, but they’re just really good matchups with strong fighters.

Because of that, I feel like Oliveira is the best value on the board. Is Topuria on the rise and possibly the better fighter? Sure, but narrative street is a thing. Oliveira may very well be looking at his last title shot, and most undefeated fighters get tripped up at some point. Don’t be shocked if Topuria’s path to a championship belt is a rocky one at first.

Pantoja feels like an easy call. Obviously anything can happen in the world of mixed martial arts, and I’m well aware of Kara-France’s KO ability. But is he better than Pantoja? No.

Diniz isn’t an amazing value and he’s coming off of his first career loss, but this does have the feel of a gimme pick. He’s facing a “meh” challenger and should be able to bounce-back nicely. I think he’s fairly safe and I’d also entertain his KO prop.

UFC 317 Card

Check out the updated UFC 317 fight card:

UFC FavoriteUFC UnderdogUFC Prediction
Ilia Topuria (-400)Charles Oliveira (+300)Charles Oliveira (+300)
Alexandre Pantoja (-240)Kai Kara-France (+205)Alexandre Pantoja (-240)
Renato Moicano (-170)Beneil Dariush (+145)Beneil Dariush (+145)
Joshua Van (-120)Brandon Royval (+100)Brandon Royval (+100)
Jhonata Diniz (-350)Alvin Hines (+290)Jhonata Diniz (-310)
Gregory Rodrigues (-180)Jack Hermansson (+155)Jack Hermansson (+155)
Tracy Cortez (-240)Viviane Araujo (+205)Tracy Cortez (-240)
Jhonata Diniz (-350)Alvin Hines (+290)Jhonata Diniz (-350)
Terrance McKinney (-164)Viacheslav Borshchev (+144)Terrance McKinney (-164)
Jose Delgado (-160)Hyder Amil (+140)Jose Delgado (-160)
Christopher Ewert (-130)Jackson McVey (+110)Jackson McVey (+110)
Jacobe Smith (-2500)Niko Price (+1200)Jacobe Smith (-2500)