UFC fans have a banger in front of them this weekend, as the UFC returns from a one-week hiatus with a loaded UFC 323 fight card. The action gets started at 6:00 pm EST and closes things out in style with an intense bantamweight title bout between Merab Dvalishvili and Petry Yan.

There are plenty of great fights to take in and bet on before that, of course, with big names like Joshua Van, Alexandre Pantoja, Brandon Moreno, and Jan Blachowicz all entering the Octagon.

Looking for some winning UFC 323 bets to target? I’ve got you covered, as I’ll inspect the latest UFC 323 odds and break down every matchup for this stacked card. I’ll then wrap things up with my three favorite UFC picks for the slate.

Ready to bet on UFC 323? Let’s go!

Where To Watch UFC 323?

You can tune into UFC 323 on ESPN+, Disney+, or FX for all of the Prelims matches. The main card will be on PPV, however.

When Is UFC 323?

This week’s fight card is on Saturday, with the Prelims beginning at 6:00 pm EST and the main card following later in the evening at 10:00 pm EST.

Where Is UFC 323?

If you want to attend UFC 323 in person, you can try to get tickets and head to Nevada, as UFC 323 will be held at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

UFC 323 Odds

Check out the latest odds for UFC 323, per the top sports betting sites: 

The UFC 323 main card looks amazing on paper. I think the main event is probably pretty obvious, but there’s no denying that it’ll be fun to see if Petyr Yan can be the first guy to KO the great Merab Dvalishivili.

My guess is he will not be, and Merab’s reign continues. The -400 moneyline isn’t super appealing, but the good news is that’s the fattest ML on this portion of the card. That, and you can always toss Merab onto a UFC 323 parlay to make good use of this bout.

Elsewhere, we have some big names on this card, but the most intriguing fight has to be the rising youngster Joshua Van taking on a seasoned menace in Pantoja. This is another title fight and the co-main event, and another one I will roll with the betting favorite for.

Instead of a big upset by Van, I think this is where he proves his worth, but falls short. 

The rest of the UFC 323 main card fights are nicely priced, and for the most part, I’m not taking any big chances. We can do that during the Prelims. You can roll with my UFC 323 picks, or read on for further reasoning for each fight.

Want even more advice? See what the best handicappers have to offer before finalizing your UFC 323 bets.

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UFC 323 Predictions For The Main Card

The main card for UFC 323 begins at 10:00 pm EST on PPV.

Merab Dvalishvili (-400) vs. Petyr Yan (+330)

The big fight for UFC 323 is undeniably Merab Dvalishvili (21-4) defending his bantamweight title belt against Petyr Yan (19-5). Merab easily handled Cory Sandhagen in his last fight and he submitted Sean O’Malley in the fight before that.

Dvalishvili is getting up there at 34, but Yan isn’t that much younger and we saw Merab navigate this same matchup in a win back in 2023. He will once again have the wrestling edge, while his defense and toughness are about as good as it gets.

Merab feels unbeatable at this point. He’s on fire, too, having won 14 straight bouts. He’s also never been knocked out, which is very likely Yan’s only path to an upset. He is always going to have a shot due to his striking edge and raw power, but he also hasn’t scored a KO in five years.

You can throw caution to the wind and bet on a KO upset, but I don’t see it happening. Merab wins with defense, timing, pacing, and suffocating wrestling. Yan didn’t have an answer for that in 2023, and he won’t have an answer for it now.

Bet: Merab Dvalishvili (-400)

Alexandre Pantoja (-225) vs. Joshua Van (+190)

Another easy call for me is Alexandre Pantoja (30-5) over Joshua Van (15-2). But allow me to elaborate. First, Pantoja is obviously much older at 35, but that also gives him a severe experience advantage. He also owns a 2.5-reach edge and offers superior takedown offense.

Pantoja is tough as nails and is a finishing machine. He’s never been finished, while his five defeats have gone to the wire and came against mostly solid competition. None of those losses have come in the past five years, either.

A dominant and explosive threat, Pantoja has 20 career wins by stoppage and he can end the fight with his fists or make the opposition tap out. His recent form has been fantastic, as he stopped both Kai Kara-France and Kai Asakura, and also have solid Decision victories over the likes of Steve Erceg, Brandon Royval, and Brandon Moreno.

Put simply, Pantoja has seen it all and he’s worked hard to get to this point. Van is certainly a rising prospect that is on fire at the moment, but he’s been finished twice before and can take on a good amount of damage. He can inflict it just as well – if not moreso – but against someone like Pantoja, I don’t see that as much of an advantage.

If Van tries to end this thing early, Pantoja will probably make him pay. If he embraces the grind, Pantoja will beat him with wrestling and win by points. Van will have his day in the sun, but I don’t see it happening at UFC 323.

Bet: Alexandre Pantoja (-225)

Tatsuro Taira (-135) vs. Brandon Moreno (+115)

Here’s my first UFC 323 upset pick. I definitely respect Tatsuro Taira, as he’s a stellar 17-1 and a technically clean fighter with strong wrestling and the ability to end any fight in a hurry.

Taira has never been finished and has impressed under the UFC banner thus far, going 7-1 with his only loss coming to Brandon Royval via Decision. That isn’t anything to be ashamed of, while he was able to bounce back in his next fight with a neck crank against Hyun Sung Park.

Moreno is six years older, but he’s equally dangerous and has also never been finished. He offers more impactful striking and enough of a floor game to combat what Taira does well.

The pricing tells us all we need to know; this is a pretty even match that could go either way. I am going to put my trust in Moreno, who simply has more overall experience and should have a better shot at dictating pacing and exchanges in this one.

Bet: Brandon Moreno (+115)

Payton Talbott (-275) vs. Henry Cejudo (+235)

This is another spot where I would be open to backing the underdog, but I fear Henry Cejudo (16-5) lacks the upside he at one time offered. The 38-year old is definitely still a tough out, as he’s been finished once in his entire career, but he’s in poor form with three consecutive losses behind him.

In terms of toughness and finishing ability, Cejudo is technically in play. He has terrific wrestling, solid striking, and is going to get the fight to the canvas more. However, he loses over six inches in reach and height to Payton Talbott (10-1), who is also 11 years younger with a major striking advantage.

Cejudo is tough enough to hang tight and not get embarrassed, but I don’t believe he’ll get the finish and the longer his fights go, the worse he looks. Talbott is live for the KO here, although I think the more likely outcome is him winning by points.

Bet: Payton Talbott (-275)

Jan Blachowicz (-145) vs. Bogdan Guskov (+125)

The last fight of the UFC 323 main card has a former titan staving off retirement. Jan Blachowicz (29-11-1) is 42 years old now, and he’ll be running into a potential buzzsaw in Bogdan Guskov (18-3).

Blachowicz has seen better days, as he’s failed to win any of his last three bouts. On the bright side, Carlos Ulberg and Alex Pereira both failed to knock him out, while his 2023 battle with Pereira was a Split Decision.

Time is running out for Blachowicz, but there may still be enough gas in the tank for him to fend off Guskov and set up a bigger fight down the road. Guskov has been good, though, as he’s gone 4-1 in the UFC and has exhibited explosive finishing ability.

It’s worth noting that he did get submitted in his UFC debut back in 2023, while his wins have not come against anyone as experienced or as talented as Blachowicz. This is the classic “prove it” bet. Jan is aging and could easily be washed, but the -145 moneyline is pretty awesome. I’m game for betting he has at least one more big win in him.

Bet: Jan Blachowicz (-145)

UFC 323 Preliminary Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC 323 odds for the Preliminary Card.

The UFC 323 Prelims aren’t as exciting as a main event with two title belts on the line, but it’s honestly pretty great, all things considered.

Grant Lawson is a pretty big favorite to take out Manuel Torres and that’s another spot where I don’t disagree. Betting against a good amount of these favorites feels bad, but I targeted some value with Moreno for the main card, and I do like doing so with the likes of Terrance McKinney.

This card will be very interesting when you look at some of the prices here. Jalin Turner and Mairon Santos look like locks, but the odds are good enough across from them to consider going the other way.

The big one is Mansur Abdul-Malik. He looks like an auto click at -1000, but it’s not like you’re making money off of that. You’ll want to either hunt for a method of victory prop or give Antonio Trocoli’s +700 price tag a cursory glance.

Roll with the rest of my UFC 323 picks above, or read on for a breakdown of each bet, along with my three top picks for the entire event.

UFC 323 Predictions For The Preliminary Card

The UFC 323 kicks off with the Prelims at 6:00 pm EST on ESPN+, Disney+, and FX.

Grant Dawson (-210) vs. Manuel Torres (+180)

The UFC 323 Prelims are kind of loaded, as we get a fun showdown between Grant Dawson (23-2-1) and Manuel Torres (16-3). These guys have not lost a lot of fights between each other, but Dawson will still be a hefty -210 betting favorite to add to his win column.

I can see why, too, as Dawson is on a hot streak, winning each of his last three fights, with his lone loss coming to Bobby Green in 2023. Dawson has the ability to dominate with his wrestling, while he can finish the fight on the mat (13 submissions) at an alarming rate.

Torres is no scrub, though, as he has a 1-inch reach edge, is one year younger, and has the clear striking edge. He’s also proven to be slightly more versatile as far as dividing up how he mangles his opponents, and his last fight saw him dispatch Drew Dober via TKO.

All that said, the more technically sound fighter is Dawson. He has more experience and he should be able to dictate how this fight unfolds. If he gets it to the ground like he so often can, it’s game over.

Bet: Grant Dawson (-210)

Chris Duncan (-160) vs. Terrance McKinney (+140)

Here’s another UFC 323 upset special for me. Don’t get me wrong, Chris Duncan (14-2) is a highly skilled fighter who comes into this one in strong form. He just worked his way past Mateusz Rebecki in his last fight and choked out Jordan Vucenic and Bolaji Oki prior to that.

But there are some holes in Duncan’s game, and I value the upside of a knockout artist like Terrance McKinney. Let’s not forget that Viacheslav Borschev KO’d Duncan back in 2021, and while he inflicts plenty of damage and can take the fight to the ground, he’s facing someone who can very much do the same.

McKinney (17-7) has more losses on his ledger and is the more reckless fighter, but he also sports a 2.5-inch reach advantage and is the more impactful striker. McKinney is in solid enough form with a 4-1 mark over his last five fights, and he’s equally dangerous in the submission game as he is with his fists.

Duncan is good, but McKinney is a better price with more upside. I love him at his +140 ML and will target his KO or win by stoppage props.

Bet: Terrance McKinney (+140)

Maycee Barber (-175) vs. Karine Silva (+150)

This fight is hard to gauge, as we have Maycee Barber (14-2) looking to put on the pressure and dominate with her striking (6 KOs), while Karine Silva offers superior wrestling and elite submission skills (8 submissions).

I feel like this one is a bit mispriced, to be honest, as Silva has more experience and has proven to be the more versatile finisher. It’s just a contrast of styles and a battle of wills, though. Either Barber’s size and power will give her the leg up, or Silva will use her extra length and wrestling to work the fight to the ground and force Barber to tap.

The pricing indicates the overlying theme; this one is close and could go either way. When that’s the case, I tend to roll with the fighter who offers more value and/or can dictate pace and offset pressure. I think that’s Silva.

Bet: Karine Silva (+150)

Fares Ziam (-130) vs. Nazim Sadykhov (+110)

A fight with even tighter odds sees Fares Ziam (17-4) as the slightest of betting favorites when he prepares to take on Nazim Sadykhov (11-1-1). Ziam is mildly favored due to having more experience (despite being three years younger), but he also possesses a massive six-inch reach advantage.

That is going to be a pretty big deal in this matchup, seeing as Sadykhov can dish out a ton of punishment (5.55 significant strikes landed per minute). Ziam has always utilized his length and height well, however, so it shouldn’t shock anyone to learn he’s never been knocked out.

Ziam can be vulnerable on the mat, but he can also thrive there, while he offers solid versatility. He is coming in hot, having won each of his last five bouts, so he’s going to be tough to get away from when looking at fundamentals.

Sadykhov is a KO threat in any bout, but he isn’t going to beat Ziam in the submission game. Assuming I’m correct about that, I think Ziam is the one to roll with.

Bet: Fares Ziam (-130)

Marvin Vettori (-116) vs. Brunno Ferreira (-104)

We have two fights in their physical prime looking to go to war at UFC 323 in a fight I think has legit Fight of the Night potential. The ever physical Marvin Vettori enters as the slightest of favorites, but he is one year younger than his opponent with a two-inch reach and height advantage.

Vettori (19-9-1) also happens to be a total monster, as he’s won eight fights that have gone the distance and has never been stopped. Vettori is a submission guru (9 submissions), but he also dishes out a lot of punishment with his striking (4.68 significant strikes landed per minute) and offers superior takedown offense than his opponent.

The one knock of Vettori is that he often allows fights to go the distance. His recent form isn’t great, either, as he is just 1-4 in his last four fights. Those are all Decision losses against some huge names, though.

Bruno Ferreira (14-2) isn’t an easy opponent, but he’s probably Vettori’s softest matchup in a while now. Ferreira has 13 career finishes and is dangerous with his fists (9 KOs), but he isn’t going to bring anything to the table Vettori can’t handle.

All things considered, the price on Vettori feels like a slap in the face.

Bet: Marvin Vettori (-116)

Jalin Turner (-300) vs. Edson Barboza (+250)

Next up we have Jalin Turner (14-9) coming in as one of the bigger favorites despite a pretty ho-hum record. The odds for this bout have a lot to do with Edson Barboza (24-13) eating a lot of losses throughout his career, and also being nine years older than Turner.

Turner also happens to own a two-inch reach advantage, while he’ll even be four inches taller than his opponent. He also grades out as the better overall striker and is the slightly better wrestler.

The problem is we’re paying too much to trust in a guy that has not been great lately (1-4 over his last five fights) and has shown a propensity to get knocked out (4 KO losses). Turner is still highly explosive (10 knockout wins), but there’s nothing about his game that makes him an easy click.

Likewise for the aging Barboza, but he’s at least gone the distance with the likes of Drakkar Klose and Lerone Murphy lately, and his 14 career KOs give you just as much upside.

Ultimately, I do think someone is getting KO’d in this spot. But given the price gap and how shaky Turner can be, I don’t mind swinging for the fences and betting on Barboza having one last gasp in the UFC.

Bet: Edson Barboza (+250)

Iwo Baraniewski (-185) vs. Ibo Alsan (+160)

From a fight with a weirdly wide gap, we go to one that has tight pricing. Iwo Baraniewski (6-0) puts an unblemished mixed martial arts record on the line at UFC 323, where he’ll run into Ibo Aslan (14-3).

Aslan has a huge four-inch reach advantage and will tower over Baraniewski, while his KO chops (14 knockouts) make him a potential nightmare matchup. Alsan has not really found his footing inside the UFC, though, as he’s just 2-2 in the promotion and has also had issues defending submissions.

That could be bad news against an explosive fighter in Baraniewski, who has won all six of his fights via stoppage, with two coming via submission. I certainly give Alsan a chance to stage the upset, but Iwo is the more exciting prospect and has looked pretty unstoppable.

Bet: Iwo Baraniewski (-185)

Mansur Abdul-Malik (-1000) vs. Antonio Trocoli (+700)

The biggest moneyline of UFC 323 goes to Mansur Abdul-Malik (8-0-1), who has also yet to lose professionally. His one “non win” came last time out, where his bout with Cody Brundage was ultimately ruled a Draw.

Abdul-Malik was on a dominant run before that fight, scoring eight finishes (7 KOs) in all of his victories. He is a lethal force with plenty of power, and he is ultimately going to be too much for Antonio Trocoli (12-5) to handle.

Trocoli is a vastly inferior striker and is not the greatest wrestler, plus he is six years older. Mansur figures to have an edge in just about every way in this one, provided he doesn’t take his opponent lightly.

You’re not betting on his -1000 ML, though. I’d target a KO prop or an inside the distance win wager.

Bet: Mansur Abdul-Malik (-1000)

Mairon Santos (-255) vs. Muhammad Naimov (+215)

Lastly, we have another reasonable favorite with Mairon Santos (17-1) fully expected to beat Muhammad Naimov (13-3). Santos makes total sense as the favorite, as he is six years younger than his opponent and will sport a two-inch reach advantage.

Santos comes in with weaker wrestling than Naimov, but is the more powerful striker. He has admittedly been a bit of a one-tricky pony to this point, but he still has eight knockouts to his name. Santos was finished via KO in his lone career defeat, but he rebounded nicely and is off to a 3-0 start in the UFC.

Naimov offers more versatility and recently stole a Decision win over Bogdan Grad, but he appears to be overmatched in this spot. He could have an edge if he can sneak in a submission, but Santos has superior power and pacing, which may negate Naimov’s takedown offense.

Bet: Mairon Santos (-255)

The Best UFC 323 Picks

The following is our best UFC 323 picks for this weekend’s event:

• Jan Blachowicz (-145)
• Alexandre Pantoja (-225)
• Brandon Moreno (+115)

Merab is without a doubt the safest bet you can make going into UFC 323. His price isn’t fun, but he can be part of a parlay or you can target props within that bout. The fight going the distance is a terrific bet and a Decision win for Merab is an even better bet.

You can get superior value with Jan Blachowicz, straight up. His -145 price tag is to die for. I know he’s 42 and on his way out, but he’s going to be a really tough test for Bogdan Guskov. I think his experience and versatility give him an edge in this spot.

Pantoja is similar to Merab in my opinion in terms of safety. He simply is half the price. Joshua Van is dangerous and certainly explosive, but Pantoja is a terror. He still seems to be in his physical prime even at 35, so this doesn’t appear to be the spot where Van becomes a champion just yet.

I also really like the value associated with Moreno. You can get him at plus money against Tatsuro Taira, who has been highly dangerous in the UFC, but couldn’t figure out Brandon Royval two fights ago. 

Moreno just got past Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi, so he’s in solid form and he has the submission chops to match wits with Taira.

I like all of my UFC 323 picks, but the above three are my favorite. I strongly suggest targeting all fights solo, and wish you luck!

UFC 323 Card

Check out the updated UFC 323 fight card: