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The field is set for the 2021 BMW Championship after last week’s Northern Trust was delayed for a day due to a hurricane! Tony Finau won a one-hole playoff over Cameron Smith. Finau jumped to the top of the FedEx points standings with the win and comes in at +2500 with Smith at +2200.
Despite the two player’s efforts and the playoff win, it’s Jon Rahm who enters play on Thursday as the favorite at +550. He ended the Northern Trust with a 3rd place finish after missing a few fairways, and other issues, during the closing holes.
Behind Rahm, the remaining favorites are bunched together from +1600 to +2000 including Dustin Johnson at +2000. Johnson won this event in 2016 and the 2020 FedEx Championship. That’s important because the BMW Championship is a no-cut event and is limited to the top 70 players in FedEx points. The best 30 players go onto the FedEx Championship, also a no-cut tournament, next week.
This event has not offered up too many surprise winners over the years but Finau’s win last week means you should look down the odds list for value players! Also, the BMW Championship is being played at a new venue – more on that below.
But first, here are the favorites through +2000 to win the 2021 edition of The BMW Championship outright according to Intertops.
Jon Rahm +550
Xander Schauffele +1600
Justin Thomas +1800
Jordan Spieth +2000
Collin Morikawa +2000
Dustin Johnson +2000
2021 BMW Championship Preview
Where: Owing Mills, Maryland
Course: Caves Valley Golf Club
Format: Stroke Play
Par: 71
Length: 7,226
When: August 26-29, 2021
Purse: $9.5 Million.
TV Coverage: NBC/Golf Channel
Cave’s Valley Golf Club is only 30 years old but it’s seen plenty of high-level play. The venue hosted the 2017 Senior Players Championship, 2002 Senior Open, the 2014 International Crown, several NCAA events, and more. But this is its first PGA Tour event. The number of players that have playing time on the course is limited.
That’s an interesting twist considering that the Northern Trust was extended for an extra day due to weather which shortened travel times and practice time between the two tournaments. The course is a long par 71 with four par-five holes and greens that average just over 5000 sq. feet with the larger ones being under 6000 sq. feet. The rough is a fescue-bluegrass combination that’s cut to 4 inches. That places a premium on getting to the green in regulation and putting.
That means putters will once again be a premium this week. Another thing that could be a repeat of last week is the weather. No hurricanes are in the forecast but rain is, and temps could stretch into the 90s with high humidity.
2021 BMW Championship Picks
Jon Rahm +550
It’s hard to see Jon Rahm dropping a lead like he did last week in back-to-back events – especially during the PGA playoffs. But it is something to consider. Oddsmakers see Rahm as the strongest in the field due to his world ranking of No. 1 and his wins that include this year’s U.S. Open.
Tony Finau +2500
Last week Tony Finau took the lead away from the number one player in the world, Jon Rahm, and held off a playoff challenge from Cameron Smith. This year his finishes have included the win last week as well as 8 top-ten and 14 that were 25th or better. He jumped to 3rd in stats for scrambling around the green from 30 yards.
Harris English +4000
This is the second week I’m looking at Harris English. He’s No. 8 in FedEx points and was showing signs of making a run for the front last week. English seems to have the ability to quickly adapt to any course and going to a new one should not bother him too much. He’s also had a strong putter all year.
Others: Cameron Smith started nailing clutch putts in round four last week when he forced the playoff. He ended things with one bad drive but he still was able to get close to winning while pushing the No. 1 golfer (Rahm) behind him. Keegan Bradley (+7500) is coming off a T11 finish last week which is due to a hot putter – something that will be needed at Caves Valley.
2021 BMW Championship Outright Winner Odds
Jon Rahm +550
Xander Schauffele +1600
Justin Thomas +1800
Jordan Spieth +2000
Collin Morikawa +2000
Dustin Johnson +2000
Brooks Koepka +2200
Cameron Smith +2200
Bryson DeChambeau +2500
Rory McIlroy +2500
Louis Oosthuizen +2500
Patrick Cantlay +2500
Tony Finau +2500
Scottie Scheffler +3000
Viktor Hovland +3000
Daniel Berger +3300
Abraham Ancer +3500
Paul Casey +3500
Webb Simpson +3500
Hideki Matsuyama +3500
Harris English +4000
Shane Lowry +4000
Corey Conners +4000
Joaquin Niemann +5000
Sam Burns +5000
Sungjae Im +5500
Kevin Na +6600
Russell Henley +6600
Cameron Tringale +6600
Jason Kokrak +7500
Keegan Bradley +7500
Alex Noren +8000
Billy Horschel +8000
Harold Varner III +8000
Erik Van Rooyen +8000
Sergio Garcia +8000
Cameron Champ +10000
Charley Hoffman +10000
Brian Harman +10000
Maverick McNealy +10000
Kevin Streelman +10000
Branden Grace +10000
Kevin Kisner +10000
Si-Woo Kim +10000
Jhonattan Vegas +12500
Sebastian Munoz +12500
Marc Leishman +12500
Ryan Palmer +12500
Stewart Cink +12500
Cameron Davis +12500
Talor Gooch +12500
Mackenzie Hughes +12500
Emiliano Grillo +12500
Lee Westwood +12500
Max Homa +12500
Carlos Ortiz +15000
Phil Mickelson +15000
Aaron Wise +15000
Keith Mitchell +15000
Chris Kirk +17500
Charl Schwartzel +17500
Patton Kizzire +20000
Lucas Glover +20000
Harry Higgs +20000
Tom Hoge +20000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +25000
Matt Jones +25000
Hudson Swafford +30000
Robert Streb +30000
