NASCAR returns to an oval track after two weeks of road course racing. The FireKeepers Casino 400 is set for Sunday at Michigan International Speedway (MIS). The facility is a “must-win” race for many drivers and teams due to its location near Detroit and auto companies.

A few things jump out when looking through the odds to win the 400 outright. First, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott are once again favorites. Secondly, Kevin Harvick has climbed up the favorites list – which may be something to ignore.

Larson is the clear favorite at +285 following string runs over the last several races and a season that includes five wins in the Cup Series. After Larson, things tighten up as the remaining four drivers in the top five range from Kyle Busch and Elliott at +700 and Harvick at +800.

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About Harvick, he’s been the top man at Michigan for the last three races as he has won them all. He’s won four of the last five Cup races at Michigan for a total of five wins at the track in his career. All of that is nice – but he’s yet to win this season and has been somewhat of a non-factor for much of the year while still managing 16 top-ten finishes.

On the other hand, Ford has won the six races at this track. Chevrolet won the three before that, and Toyota’s last Michigan win came in 2015.

Here are the favorite drivers, through +800, to win the FireKeepers Casino 400 outright according to Intertops. Three of the five listed favorites, Harvick, Busch, and Larson – have won at this track.

Kyle Larson +285

Kyle Busch +700

Chase Elliott +700

Martin Truex Jr +750

Kevin Harvick +800

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2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 Preview

Date: Sunday, August 22, 2021, 3:00 pm EST

Track: Michigan International Speedway

Type: D-shaped oval, Asphalt, 2.0 miles, 4 turns

Race Distance: 400 miles, 200 laps

Defending Track Winner: Kevin Harvick

TV/Radio: NBCS / MRN

NOTE: Last year the revised schedule, due to COVID-19, included back-to-back MIS races over two days. This year’s schedule only has one MIS race.

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2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 Predictions

Kyle Larson +285

Kyle Larson is the hottest driver in Cup Series racing and he has five wins this year. He also has three wins at Michigan. He went back-to-back-to-back in 2016 and both races at the track in 2017. He finished third there in 2019. Larson has an average start of 15.5 at Michigan with an average finish of 12.4.

Kevin Harvick +800

Kevin Harvick has had a love-hate relationship with Michigan. He has won the last three races at the track but it’s also a place where fuel runs have cost him checkered flags. If there was ever a track where Harvick would show up and grab a win it would be MIS. His last five trips have yielded four wins and one 7th place run.

Joey Logano +1200

Joey Logano checks off plenty of Fantasy stats when it comes to Michigan and some of those translate nicely to this weekend race. The main stat is that his last ten races at the track have yielded 8 top-ten finishes and four in the top-five.

Others: Martin Truex Jr. (+750) is one to watch but Toyota has not done well at Michigan since they joined NASCAR. The nameplate has five wins at the track going back to 2009. A longshot pick may be Ryan Blaney at +1800. Blaney was 4th at the first MIS race last year but crashed out – not his doing – in the second 2020 race. Before the wreck, he was one of the stronger cars.

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2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 Betting Lines

Kyle Larson +285

Kyle Busch +700

Chase Elliott +700

Martin Truex Jr +750

Kevin Harvick +800

Denny Hamlin +900

William Byron +1200

Joey Logano +1200

Brad Keselowski +1400

Alex Bowman +1600

Ryan Blaney +1800

Christopher Bell +2200

Kurt Busch +2500

Tyler Reddick +3500

Austin Dillon +4500

Ross Chastain +5000

Matt Dibenedetto +6000

Aric Almirola +6000

Darrell Wallace Jr. +7500

Daniel Suarez +9000

Ricky Stenhouse Jr +10000

Chase Briscoe +12500

Chris Buescher +15000

Ryan Newman +15000

Cole Custer +17500

Erik Jones +20000

Ryan Preece +20000

Michael McDowell +30000

Corey Lajoie +50000

Anthony Alfredo +50000

Justin Haley +50000

BJ McLeod +100000

Cody Ware +150000

Quinn Houff +150000

Garrett Smithley +150000

Josh Bilicki +150000

James Davison +150000