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The NASCAR Cup Series hits Alabama this weekend for the YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. It’s the second race in the Cup Series second round of the playoffs and there are some familiar names at the top of the favorites to win outright list starting with Denny Hamlin at +750 who already has two wins at the track in his Cup career.
Hamlin is followed by Joey Logano who comes in at +900. The two drivers are then followed by a large group of drivers in the +1000 to +1200 range. That’s a good indication that oddsmakers believe that driver that wins this race will probably have a knack at avoiding trouble such as the “Big One” wreck the track is famous for. Aka… talent beats luck… sometimes! Ask Denny Hamlin, more on that below.
Last year’s race consisted of seven caution flags amounting to 34 laps under the yellow flag. Even with those numbers, there were still 35 lead changes during the race. That’s a hallmark of a track like Talledega, just because you are out front does not mean you will stay there long. And here’s where Hamlin comes back up – Hamlin led 43 laps during the race this spring which was the most per driver. He finished the race several laps down in the 32 nd spot.
One stat to be aware of is that Ford has won eight of the last ten Talladega races with Chevrolet and Toyota splitting the other two. Many of those Ford wins have come at the hands of Team Penske drivers including Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney who are among the four favorites to win the 2021 YellaWood 500 at Talladega outright according to Intertops.
Denny Hamlin +750
Joey Logano +900
Chase Elliott +1000
Ryan Blaney +1100
All four drivers listed above have Cup Series wins at Talladega.
2021 YellaWood 500 Preview
Track: Talladega Superspeedway / Lincoln, Alabama
Type: 2.66-mile paved banked superspeedway
Race Distance: 188 laps / 500.08 miles
Defending track winner: Brad Keselowski
TV/Radio: NBCS / MRN
Best NASCAR Statistics for Handicappers
2021 YellaWood 500 Predictions
Denny Hamlin +750
Denny Hamlin has been hot over the last several races and looks to be gaining steam. In the last four races, he’s finished with two wins and one 3rd place run. His worst showing over those four races was a 9th place finish at Bristol two weeks ago. Hamlin has five checkered flags with one of those coming at Talladega earlier this season. Last week at Las Vegas, Hamlin dominated by leading 137 of the 267 lap race.
Ryan Blaney +1100
Ryan Blaney seems to enjoy racing at Talladega, at least that’s what NASCAR stats indicate. Blaney has ten Cup Series starts at Talladega and he’s won there twice going back-to-back throughout two seasons. The first came in the fall of the 2019 season and the second came during 2020 at the first race at the track for the year. Earlier this season he raced with the front pack for much of the day before being shuffled back for a 12th place finish.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +2800
Ricky Stenhouse Jr is a driver that always gets brought up during races at Superspeedways. He has a win at Talladega which came in 2017 and he’s led laps there in seven of his last ten starts at the track. That show’s he knows how to work his way to the front. However, Stenhouse is one of those drivers that bad luck can sometimes collect at ‘Dega. After a 2 nd place run during the first ‘Dega race last season he was wrecked out of the 2020 fall race and this spring he was collected in a wreck but finished five laps down.
Others to Consider: NASCAR stats suggest that Joey Logano (+900) should be a consideration. In his last ten races at Talladega, he’s won twice and led 325 laps. That’s better than every other active driver with up to ten Talladega starts. Aric Almirola (+1800) won at Talladega in 2018 and he has had finished 3 rd and 4th in races at the track since then.
2021 YellaWood 500 Betting Lines
Denny Hamlin +750
Joey Logano +900
Chase Elliott +1000
Ryan Blaney +1100
William Byron +1200
Kyle Larson +1200
Brad Keselowski +1200
Kyle Busch +1600
Kevin Harvick +1600
Alex Bowman +1800
Aric Almirola +1800
Matt Dibenedetto +2000
Austin Dillon +2200
Kurt Busch +2500
Martin Truex Jr +2500
Tyler Reddick +2500
Darrell Wallace Jr. +2800
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +2800
Christopher Bell +3000
Justin Haley +3300
Ross Chastain +3300
Erik Jones +4500
Ryan Newman +4500
Chris Buescher +4500
Michael McDowell +5000
Daniel Suarez +5500
Ryan Preece +5500
Cole Custer +6000
Chase Briscoe +6000
Corey Lajoie +7000
Justin Allgaier +7500
Anthony Alfredo +15000
Landon Cassill +25000
Cody Ware +35000
David Starr +50000
BJ McLeod +50000
Garrett Smithley +50000
Joey Gase +50000
Josh Bilicki +50000
Quinn Houff +50000
