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The Talladega race weekend is in the books and it’s onto the Duramax Drydene 400 at Dover! The track known as the “Monster Mile” can damage as many cars as ‘Dega. And, the finish at Talladega showed us a few things. First, the new NextGen car has been a great equalizer for smaller teams. Secondly, veterans can still run well – aka Kyle Busch with a third-place finish. And, you may have to look at track stats a bit differently when it comes to manufacturers.
Going into Talladega one of the main stats people focused on was how well Ford drivers do at the track. Not last week. They may have been out front for the most laps but they didn’t finish well. Only two Blue Ovals finished in the top ten. As for Dover, it could also be a manufacturer toss-up. Chevrolet, Toyota, and Ford have been swapping wins for the last ten races at the track.
Alex Bowman took the checkered flag last time at Dover in a 1,2,3,4 finish for Hendrick Motorsports. Behind Bowman were his three teammates, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and William Byron. As of this point of the season, Elliott is the only Hendrick driver yet to win a race this season.
If you were relying on NASCAR Fantasy stats then you would probably lean towards Martin Truex Jr. or Kevin Harvick. Both drivers top the fantasy stats over their last ten visits to Dover. Both have two wins over that ten-race stretch and eight finishes inside the top ten.
Truex has not won this season and Harvick is riding a winless streak that includes races this season as well as all of 2021. Here are the favorite drivers to win the Drydene 400 outright.
Kyle Larson +450
William Byron +800
Chase Elliott +900
Alex Bowman +1000
This is the first time the new NextGen cars will take the track at Dover. It will be interesting to see how the new design’s durability holds up on a track known for high-speed bumps and grinds. The cars held up well at Talladega and while Dover is known for damaging cars, the track is also known for a large number of cars finishing the race. During last year’s race, 37 cars took the green flag and only two drivers failed to finish the race with 17 cars on the lead lap.
2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400 Preview
Date: Sunday, May 1, 2022, 3:00 pm EST
Track: Dover Motor Speedway – Dover, Deleware
Type: Oval, Concrete, 1 mile.
Race Distance: 400 laps, 400 miles.
Defending Track Winner: Alex Bowman
TV/Radio: FS1/MRN/local affiliates
2022 DuraMAX Drydene Predictions
William Byron +800
William Byron has had strong cars all season long. He’s won twice this season with the first win coming at Atlanta Motor Speedway and then a few weeks later he grabbed the checkered flag at Martinsville. Both tracks may have some notes for crew chiefs that carry over to Dover Motor Speedway. Byron finished 4th here last season and has finished four times inside the top-five.
Joey Logano +1200
Joey Logano has won a race this season and has been a factor several other times this season. He’s never won at Dover Motor Speedway in a Cup Series race but he’s had a string of great runs at the track. Five of Joey Logano’s last six races at Dover have been with finishes of 8th or better. His last run there resulted in a 5 th place finish several laps as the leader. In his last ten Dover starts, he’s never logged a DNF and his laps completion rate is 99.0%.
Kyle Busch +1400
Kyle Busch has a Dover win, in 2017, and in his last five Cup Series starts at the Monster Mile he’s finished every race 11th or better except for last year where a late shuffle forced a disappointing 27th place run. Busch has already logged a victory this season and looked strong last week at Talladega where his team overcame a pit incident and still pulled off a 3rd place finish.
Others to Consider: I’m coming back to both Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. who are both at +1200 this week. Their past stats at Dover are hard to ignore. But, this season they have both seemed to be somewhat inconsistent. Both of these drivers are too good at Dover and no one should be surprised if either of them wins on Sunday.
2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400 Betting Lines
Kyle Larson +450
William Byron +800
Chase Elliott +900
Alex Bowman +1000
Ryan Blaney +1200
Martin Truex Jr +1200
Joey Logano +1200
Kevin Harvick +1200
Denny Hamlin +1200
Kyle Busch +1400
Ross Chastain +1600
Tyler Reddick +1600
Chase Briscoe +2000
Christopher Bell +2500
Brad Keselowski +3300
Kurt Busch +4000
Daniel Suarez +5000
Austin Dillon +5000
Austin Cindric +6600
Chris Buescher +10000
Darrell Wallace Jr. +10000
Aric Almirola +10000
Erik Jones +10000
Cole Custer +10000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +12500
Ty Dillon +20000
Justin Haley +20000
Harrison Burton +20000
Todd Gilliland +30000
Michael McDowell +50000
Corey Lajoie +50000
