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Did Kevin Harvick improve his odds this week after his win last week at Michigan? Yes – a little bit! Now it’s time for the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway which is a track that Harvick has not won on since the 2013 season. Harvick has moved up the odds list and comes in at +1600 which is slightly better than over the last month. But it’s Denny Hamlin that’s favored this Sunday at +400.
Last season the Federated Auto Parts 400 was part of the playoff schedule but it’s one of the last races of the regular season in 2022. That means Richmond Raceway could produce a 16th NASCAR Cup Series race winner this weekend. Kevin Harvick became the 15th driver to grab a checkered flag last Sunday at Michigan which tightens the playoff picture dramatically.
Harvick, like Hamlin, is heading to the Playoffs and so are many of the drivers rounding out the top five this week. The numbers are tight as two drivers are in a near dead-heat with Hamlin. Both Martin Truex Jr and Kyle Busch are close!
Here are the favorite drivers to win the outright:
Denny Hamlin +600
Martin Truex Jr +650
Kyle Busch +700
Christopher Bell +800
Chase Elliott +900
Ford drivers are not among the top-five favorites this week. Joe Gibbs racing loads the list with Toyota drivers with Chase Elliott being the only Chevrolet driver. There’s a stat behind these numbers aside from how many races each nameplate has won this season. Ford drivers have only won twice over the last ten Richmond races.
During that span, Toyota has won six times including the last two races at the track. Both were by Joe Gibbs drivers. Chevrolet won two times over the ten races – once in 2021 and 2017. That could explain why Kyle Larson, a Chevy driver, has moved down the odds list slightly for Sunday’s race.
2022 Federated Auto Parts 400 Preview
Date: Sunday, August 14th 2021 at 3:00 pm EST
Track: Richmond Raceway, Richmond, Virginia
Type: D-Oval, Asphalt, .75 miles, 4 turns
Race Distance: 300 miles, 400 laps
Defending Track Winner: Denny Hamlin
TV/Radio: USA / MRN
Richmond Raceway has not been known for the most exciting races over the last several seasons. It seems as if the Toyota camp – in the form of Joe Gibbs Racing – has won seven times at the track dating back to 2016. They’ve done so by getting out front and leading a bunch of laps.
But, William Byron and Ryan Blaney both flipped that approach last season. Byron, in a Chevrolet, lead 122 laps during last year’s race while Blaney, in a Ford, was out front for 128 laps. Truex, in a Toyota, took the lead late, led only five laps, and won.
2022 Federated Auto Parts 400 Predictions
Martin Truex Jr +650
Martin Truex is the stats leader when it comes to Richmond. Over his last ten races at the track, he’s scored three wins and 8 runs inside the top ten. In seven of those eight races, he finished no worse than 5th. His last six trips to the track have resulted in 3rd, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 5th, 1st, and then a 3rd during the last race. In that outing, he led 80 laps. Another interesting fact, Truex has led laps at Richmond in eight of his last ten races there with six races well over the 100-lap mark as the leader.
Kyle Busch +700
Kyle Busch has run well and had fast cars over the last several races. But, he seems to get wrecked by other drivers all too often. Surprisingly, he’s not had one of his legendary head explosions over the last two months. That being said, he’s always a factor at Richmond. He’s posted two wins at the track over his last ten Richmond races. In his last ten visits, he’s finished in the top ten nine times with two wins. He also has six wins at Richmond in the Cup Series and six in the Xfinity Series.
Ryan Blaney +1200
Ryan Blaney has not won a points-paying race this season but he did win one of the opening dual races to kick off the season. Blaney needs a win badly because of the tight points race heading into the playoffs. But his last outing at the track was impressive. He was the lap leader with 128 laps out front. He finished 7th during that race which was a personal best at the track in a Cup Series car.
Others: Don’t be surprised if Joey Logano (+1600) shows up strong on Sunday. Logano is one of the better NASCAR fantasy drivers at Richmond with six top-five runs in his last ten Richmond races. William Byron (+2000) led 122 laps during his last trip to Richmond and finished 3rd.
2022 Federated Auto Parts 400 Betting Lines
Denny Hamlin +600
Martin Truex Jr +650
Kyle Busch +700
Christopher Bell +800
Chase Elliott +900
Kyle Larson +1000
Ross Chastain +1200
Ryan Blaney +1200
Kevin Harvick +1600
Joey Logano +1600
Darrell Wallace Jr. +2000
William Byron +2000
Tyler Reddick +2000
Daniel Suarez +2500
Alex Bowman +2800
Ty Gibbs +4000
Austin Dillon +5000
Austin Cindric +5000
Aric Almirola +5000
Chase Briscoe +5000
Erik Jones +6600
Brad Keselowski +6600
Chris Buescher 10000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +25000
Justin Haley +25000
Cole Custer +25000
Harrison Burton +30000
Michael McDowell +30000
Noah Gragson +50000
Corey Lajoie +100000
Ty Dillon +100000
Todd Gilliland +100000
Landon Cassill +100000
Cody Ware +100000
BJ McLeod +100000
J.J. Yeley +150000
