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Golden State and Dallas will begin their Western Conference finals series on Wednesday. It’s somewhat of a surprise as the Warriors ousted the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas took care of the top- seeded Phoenix Suns.
The Warriors have been here before and have plenty of experience on their side. This is the first time Dallas has made it this far since the Mavs won an NBA title in 2011.
The Mavs also went to Game 7 with Phoenix while the Warriors took care of Memphis in six. Golden State enjoyed an extra two days of rest before this series begins. Rest can be a key factor in the postseason.
Keys for the Dallas Mavericks
There is one reason why Dallas is in the Western Conference finals – Luka Doncic. He put the Mavericks on his back and willed them to wins in their first two playoff series.
Utah threw defenders at Doncic and it didn’t work. Phoenix did the same. No luck. But, Doncic can’t do it all himself. The Mavs can count on their superstar to go so far, but they need Jalen Brunson, Spencer Dinwiddie, or even Reggie Bullock to step up at certain times and make plays.
Doncic averaged 32.6 points a game in the series with Phoenix. In four games against the Warriors during the regular season, Doncic averaged 31.5. Dallas won three of the four as the Warriors also had trouble defending the Mavs star.
Keys for the Golden State Warriors
Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green have been here before. They have won conference finals titles and NBA titles. That experience helps as teams navigate the grind that is the NBA playoffs.
For the Warriors, the biggest key might be the play of Green. In the series with Memphis, Golden State didn’t need Green to score much. He didn’t score more than six points in a game until the deciding Game 6 when he had 14. That was also the first game of the series in which Green took more than five shots.
Green’s value is as a screener, passer, rebounder, and defender. In this series though, he may have to score a bit more. Dallas has one of the best defenses in the NBA. The Mavs allowed Phoenix just 104.4 points a game in their series and the Suns scored 129 and 121 in Games 1 and 2.
2022 NBA Western Conference Finals Series Odds
Golden State Warriors -255
Dallas Mavericks +215
2022 NBA Western Conference Finals Winner Prediction
Teams that win Game 1 of a series go on to win over 75 percent of NBA playoff series. Teams coming off a Game 7 win lose over 60 percent of the time in Game 1 of the next series.
The grind of having to play a full seven games and then only getting minimal rest before the next series tends to wear on teams.
Going a step further, teams that win a Game 7 only win their next series 40 percent of the time.
Luka Doncic is outstanding and there is no doubt he will be in this series. The Warriors have been through this experience before and have the type of defense capable of shutting down the rest of the Mavs. Don’t forget, the Warriors had the fifth-best scoring defense in the league this year.
PICK: GOLDEN STATE -255
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