February’s Kentucky Derby prep race schedule closes things out with an exciting showdown in this year’s $1 million Rebel Stakes. This Saturday’s featured event on Oaklawn Park’s live racing card is the lead-in event for the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at this same track on April 2.
The Rebel is a Grade 2 stakes race covering 1 1/16 miles on the dirt track at Oaklawn. The field has been set with 11 entries. However, this race is shaping up as a head-to-head battle between the top two favorites.
2022 Rebel Stakes Predictions
When: Saturday, February 26th 2022
Where: Oaklawn Park
After going through the entire list of three-year old contenders on the betting board, the following three entries would be my top picks to finish in the money. Post time for Saturday’s Rebel Stakes is 6:22 p.m. (ET).
Win: Newgrange

Coming into Saturday’s race as the 5-2 favorite on the morning line, this Kentucky-bred colt is one of trainer Bob Baffert’s prized three-year old Thoroughbreds this year’s class. The son of Violence has gone a perfect three-for-three in his brief racing career, including two victories this year in a pair of graded Kentucky Derby prep races.
After winning the one mile Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on New Year’s Day, he raced at Oaklawn at the end of January. Placing first in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes, he covered the 1 1/16 miles on dirt in 1:45.83 past Barber Road and Ben Diesel. Both of these colts are in the field for the Rebel. Newgrange will break from the No. 2 post with jockey John Velazquez.
Place: Chasing Time
My second choice for Saturday has a legitimate chance to win as well with 7-2 odds on the morning line. Trained by Steve Asmussen, he will start No. 8 and jockey Tyler Gaffalione will get the ride. Sired by Not This Time, he made his three-year old debut with a victory at Oaklawn in a one mile Allowance Claimer on Jan. 14.
This will be Chasing Time’s first appearance in a graded stakes race. However, he has already demonstrated the speed and ability to compete in a much deeper field. Last year as a juvenile, he finished in the money in three of four events in various races at Oaklawn and Churchill Downs.
Show: Ben Diesel
Coming off that third-place finish in the Southwest Stakes, I have this three-year old Kentucky Bred colt as my show horse in a very talented second tier of contenders in this race. Opening at 10-1 odds, he will break from the No. 7 post on Saturday with Jon Kenton Court as his jockey.
Sired by Will Take Charge, this colt’s juvenile career was highlighted by a victory at Churchill in a Maiden Special Weight Race in late October. This was followed up with a solid fourth-place effort in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at that same track. Ben Diesel made his three-year old debut by slipping to seventh in the ungraded Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn on Jan. 1.
One to Watch
In what should be a head-to-head battle between Newgrange and Chasing Time, one other colt to watch in this year’s Rebel Stakes would be Un Ojo as a 15-1 live long shot on the morning line.