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From several speedways in a row, then to a road course, and now it’s time for some short-track racing! The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Richmond Raceway for the running of the Toyota Owners 400. As with the last several seasons, Martin Truex Jr is among the favorites to win the race this weekend. But unlike years past, he’s not the lone favorite! Both Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott come in at +750 with Truex and a few others at +1000.
This is the first time the new NextGen car will be racing at Martinsville so that may play a factor as Truex has not won this season and had somewhat of an up and down run so far. He won two Stages at Daytona 500 before being relegated to a 13th place finish to start the year. Since then, he has finished 5 of the 6 races run this season by finishing 13th or better every week.
As for Elliott and Larson, neither driver has won a Cup Series race at Richmond but they have raced well at the famed short track. During the last race, Elliott led over 50 laps and finished in the 4th position. Larson only led a handful of laps but he made a push at the end to secure the 6th spot.
As for Richmond, the track has yielded some interesting stats over the last several races. First, Truex has won three of the last six races at the track. Toyota has gone to victory lane in eight of the last twelve Richmond races. Joe Gibbs Racing leads team owners for wins at the track with 18 Cup wins followed by Petty Enterprises with 15 Richmond wins. Out of 130 races at Richmond, a car from the top-ten starting positions has won the race 100 times for an average of 77%.
Richmond is known as a short track that drives like a Superspeedway due to its “D” shape. It will be interesting to see how each team goes about setting up the new Cup Series cars now that there are several races to pull data from. In the end, the favorites to win the Toyota Owners 400 seem very similar to years past.
Here are the favorite drivers to win outright:
Kyle Larson +750
Chase Elliott +750
Martin Truex Jr +1000
Kyle Busch +1000
Joey Logano +1000
William Byron +1000
Denny Hamlin +1000
The numbers above show some hesitation from oddsmakers as seven drivers are so close to each other. Scroll down for even more examples on the complete odds list below.
2022 Toyota Owners 400 Preview
Date: Sunday, April 3, 2021, 3:30pm EST
Track: Richmond Raceway / Henrico Co, Virginia
Type: D-Shaped Oval, Asphalt, 0.75 miles
Race Distance: 400 laps, 300 miles.
Defending Track Winner: Martin Truex Jr.
TV/Radio: FOX / MRN
The Sunday Cup race is on FOX while Saturday’s NASCAR Xfinity race at Richmond is being broadcast on FS1. The Camping World Truck Series and ARCA Series are both off this weekend.
2022 Toyota Owners 400 Predictions
Martin Truex Jr +1000
I want to fade on Truex this weekend but I keep talking myself out of it. This may be time for him to pick up a win this season as Richmond is one of his best tracks. He’s won here three times in the last six trips to the D-Shaped short track. He’s finished in the top ten at the track 13 times in his Cup Series career. I noted some of the bumps he’s had this season but he’s also logged a 7th place finish and two 8th place runs this year.
Alex Bowman +1600
Alex Bowman won at Richmond two races ago and has had a great season so far this year. Bowman grabbed a win at Las Vegas a few weeks ago and 2nd last week at COTA. Two weeks ago he posted a 10th place run at the newly remodeled Atlanta Motor Speedway. The reconfiguration of Atlanta turned the track into a smaller version of a Superspeedway. Richmond may be short but it’s fast, banked, and that could play well for Bowman once again this weekend.
Kevin Harvick +1800
Kevin Harvick has not had the season he probably was hoping for so far. Harvick has only finished in 11th or better three times this year. But he always seems to run well at Richmond and has three wins at the track and seven runs of 8th or better going back to 2018. That stretch also includes several 4th and 5th place finishes. Like Truex, Harvick would love to get his first win of the season at a track where he runs well.
Others to Consider: I would like to be stronger on Brad Keselowski (+6000)but his team seems to be struggling a bit this season. Not to mention the penalties his team has been hit with. He falls into the dark horse pick category. I keep gravitating towards Kyle Busch (+1000) as well but will probably wait to see how he looks after practice and qualifying on Saturday.
NASCAR Handicapping Statistics
2022 Toyota Owners 400 Betting Lines
Kyle Larson +750
Chase Elliott +750
Martin Truex Jr +1000
Kyle Busch +1000
Joey Logano +1000
William Byron +1000
Denny Hamlin +1000
Tyler Reddick +1200
Ross Chastain +1200
Ryan Blaney +1200
Christopher Bell +1400
Chase Briscoe +1600
Alex Bowman +1600
Kevin Harvick +1800
Daniel Suarez +2500
Aric Almirola +3300
Austin Cindric +3300
Austin Dillon +4000
Kurt Busch +5000
Erik Jones +5000
Brad Keselowski +6000
AJ Allmendinger +6600
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +10000
Cole Custer +10000
Chris Buescher +15000
Justin Haley +15000
Darrell Wallace Jr. +20000
Harrison Burton +30000
Todd Gilliland +35000
Michael McDowell +50000
Corey Lajoie +50000
Ty Dillon +75000
Greg Biffle +75000
Landon Cassill +100000
BJ McLeod +100000
Garrett Smithley +150000
Cody Ware +150000
