Let’s try something here; what we want to do is take pitchers and their histories against certain possible lineups and find out how often they struck those guys out. It makes a little sense, doesn’t it?

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I’m not necessarily looking for consistency with their regular strikeout rates. What I’m looking for are the disparities instead, because that is what creates the possible edge relative to what the oddsmaker has posted. It’s not exact science; nothing is. But it’s an interesting angle worth exploring.

The focus here is on MLB strikeouts props. And we think we have some winners.

Top MLB Pitching Props Predictions (August 6th)

Rays vs. Orioles Picks

JOHN MEANS (Baltimore Orioles) UNDER 4.5 STRIKEOUTS (+105)

Time: 7:05 PM ET

The data here indicates that Means has struck out this Tampa Bay lineup at a rate of 18.9%. We know that the Baltimore lefty has faced an average of 22.8 batters per start, which puts him right at 4.3 strikeouts.

So it definitely does not make sense to go “over” on this one. Rather, the edge, according to the formula, would be to take the +105 price.

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Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Picks

NATHAN EOVALDI (Boston Red Sox) OVER 5.5 STRIKEOUTS (+115)

Time: 7:05 PM ET

Eovaldi’s strikeout rate is virtually one per inning. So maybe it’s a matter of how far he can go.

Against the likely Toronto hitters he’ll be facing he has posted a solid 29.2% K rate, and that translates to just below 7.1 strikeouts, if we use as a basis his average of 24.2 batters faced per start.

So at +115, the “over” on the 5.5 K’s might make a lot of sense, if we are using the information we’ve gathered as a guideline.

Twins vs. Astros Picks

ZACK GREINKE (Houston Astros) UNDER 4.5 STRIKEOUTS (+105)

Time: 8:10 PM ET

We like using Greinke because he’s got a lot of history to draw upon. At the same time, we have to take into account a strikeout rate that is at an all-time low this year (6.7 per nine innings).

Greinke, the possessor of a 10-3 record and 3.65 ERA, has faced 24 hitters per start. At his current strikeout rate, he’d be right at 4.4 K’s for Friday’s outing. That already shades us toward the “under.”

But then consider that against these Minnesota hitters, he has six strikeouts in 46 plate appearances (13%), and we’re even more convinced.

MLB ML Picks

Giants vs. Brewers Picks

CORBIN BURNES (Milwaukee Brewers) OVER 8.5 STRIKEOUTS (+125)

Time: 8:10 PM ET

Burnes gained a lot of notoriety early in the season because he went through his first five starts without issuing a walk. But he is also notable for striking out folks; in fact, his 36% rate is one of the best among starting pitchers, hence the high standard in these odds.

He’s not had a lot of experience in facing this current Giants lineup (by the way, Buster Posey has gone 4-for-4 against him – a little bonus coverage there). But his percentage is not all that far off; he has faced 28 batters and fanned nine of them. That’s 32%.

So what’s our expectation from him? Well, he’s faced 23.4 batters per start. And he’s never faced San Francisco as a team before.

But let’s remember that the Giants are a power team, and they are one of seven MLB clubs to strike out more than 1000 times. The small sampling provides for some allowances if the price looks like it could be favorable, and in this case it isn’t bad for someone who has struck out 13 batters per nine innings over the last three seasons.

Check out our MLB total bases props strategy guide and MLB home run props strategy guide.