Best MLB Underdog Pick for Sunday, May 9th

It doesn’t look like anybody is ready to run away with things in the National League East standings. None of these teams looks like they can play a complete game; if they have a lot of pitching, there’s little offense. If they can hit, they spring leaks on the mound.

Well, the Philadelphia Phillies have been able to gather together enough good performances from their starting pitchers to have themselves in a virtual tie for first place with the New York Mets.

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The team favored to take honors in the end had been the Atlanta Braves, but they have lacked consistency. But do they have what it takes to crack Philadelphia’s top man in rotation? We’ll see, beginning at 7:08 PM ET on ESPN.

There may be an obstacle in front of the traveling Phils that makes the Braves a possible winning ticket.

We’re going to explain.

Here’s the setup:

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Preview

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When: 7:08 PM ET

MLB Betting Odds

Money Line: Phillies (Nola) -120 / Braves (Ynoa) +100

Total: Over 8 Runs (-105) / Under 8 Runs (-115)

Run Line: Phillies -1.5 Runs (+148) / Braves +1.5 Runs (-168)

Joe Girardi has been letting his pitchers go innings, and that is because he has a lot of faith in them – at least the top three arms, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Zac Eflin.

In three of his last four starts, Nola has thrown more than a hundred pitches, and that is unusual by 2021 standards, though seemingly not on this team. Wheeler is averaging over 100 pitches per outing.

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And it’s a good thing the Phillies have been getting that kind of production out of these guys. They have been substandard on offense, for the most part.

But it’s not all bad news. Bryce Harper is at .322, with a .449 on-base percentage, and JT Realmuto is batting .308. A number of other guys, however, are hardly hitting their own weight, and that includes aging former MVP Andrew McCutcheon (.206).

The “long leash,” so to speak, on the hurlers has been characteristic of Dave Dombrokwski’s career. The GM, who has experienced success in Florida, Detroit and Boston, places a premium on starting pitching, and has no problem with his guys going six or seven innings on a regular basis.

Between those top three starters, they’ve accounted for almost 47% of Philadelphia’s innings total. And what happens when starters can go innings? Well, not only can that make up for the lack of offense (at least for a while), but it also takes a lot of pressure off the bullpen for those occasions when the other starters can’t last very long.

And that bullpen can use all the help it can get, with an ERA of 4.86. But short men Hector Neris and Sam Coonrod haven’t been bad at all, with ERA’s of 1.88 and 1.23, respectively.

Nola started the season opener against the Braves and gave up two runs in 6-2/3 innings. He did not walk anybody. In fact, he’s walked only seven batters in 43-2/3 frames.

Atlanta leads the major leagues in homers, but one of the big bats has been quiet lately.

Ronald Acuna Jr., the National League leader in slugging percentage and OPS, started out like a bat out of hell, but he’s cooled down. Through Friday’s games, he had batted just .192 over a 15-game stretch.

Huascar Ynoa takes the ball for the Braves, and the Dominican native has been more than solid in his first full big league campaign. The 22-year-old, who walked 13 batters in 21-2/3 innings in 2020, now has a 38-to-8 ratio of strikeouts to bases on balls, and he’s got a WHIP ratio at 0.903, which is lower than that of Nola.

Ynoa has had a Game Score of 64 or better in five of his last six starts, Opponents have an OPS of .602 against him. We must admit that we’re nervous about his hard contact figure of 50%, though.

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The Phillies have won 80 of 204 road games since the beginning of the 2018 season. They are 5-10 in that department this season. And in case you were interested, Nola’s road ERA this year is 5.00, and over the course of his career he has a home-road ERA comparison of 2.90-4.07.

Without offensive balance in the starting lineup, the Phils are going to be vulnerable. Acuna, Freddie Freeman and Marcel Ozuna went a combined 1-for-12 on Saturday for the Braves. Hmmm, let’s see if that happens again.

We’ll cash a ticket with the home team here.

The Play: ATLANTA (+100)

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Charles Jay
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