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With Elsa, whether it is a tropical storm or a full-blown hurricane (estimates seem to change by the hour), having a direct impact in what conditions are going to be in the Tampa Bay area, which is surrounded with water, perhaps the best prop one could offer on Wednesday night’s Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals is whether the game will go off at all.
As it stands right now, the Montreal Canadiens hung on like a thread to viability as they beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-2 in overtime. Along the way they had to escape from a number of situations that could have easily hand the game over to Tampa Bay.
Jane Castor, the mayor of Tampa, insists that the game will take place. We’re not so sure that her own judgment could supersede that of the NHL, but it would seem that even if it means the local fans won’t be able to get to the arena, or even see it on television (due to the expected power outages), she is hell-bent on the Bolts clinching the Cup on home ice, and clinching it as soon as possible.
Well, we’ve pledged to be at the ready regardless, as we take our “shot” at our best Stanley Cup props for Game 5, hoping that we might do a little better then we did for Game 4. Read our complete Canadiens vs. Lightning betting preview for tonight.
Stanley Cup Game 5 Player Props Predictions
BLAKE COLEMAN AT LEAST ONE POINT (+135)
Coleman had a point (on an assist) in Game 4 and he’s got four points in four games thus far, making him a great target for NHL player props tonight. His line combination (along with Barclay Goodrow and Yanni Gourde) is creating opportunities for shots – that much is certain. On Monday night, they had a 68.9% Expected Goals Percentage, as well as a 73.3% Fenwick, which is sensational. Coleman himself had five shots on goal, which led the way for this team, and has nine for the series.
BRENDAN GALLAGHER NO POINTS (-222)
Gallagher is stuck on one point for the series. And it just appears as if his presence makes the Canadiens allergic to generating offense. That is unusual for a guy who has scored better than 30 goals twice in his career. In Game 4, coach Dominique Ducharme decided to mix things up a little, putting Gallagher and Patrick Danault, who have been hailed for their defense throughout the series, with Tyler Toffoli, the team’s top regular season scorer. The result was that the combination registered just a 17.6% Corsi figure and had just one shot on goal – while surrendering six – in ten minutes of time together (at even strength).
CAREY PRICE AT LEAST 32 SAVES (+116)
If you watched Game 4, you could see that Jon Cooper is maneuvering his personnel to the extent that he is gaining the key matchup advantages. Time and again, Price had to make heart-stopping saves in traffic to keep the Canadiens in the thick of things. And his defense has made a habit of giving the puck away in its own end. Now Cooper gets the last line change at home, and the Bolts come on after a 34-21 edge in shots on goal. This offensive barrage could continue.
Bet on the Lightning to Win Game 5 in Regulation Time
LIGHTNING TO WIN IN REGULATION-THREE-WAY PROP (-149)
LIGHTNING -1.5 GOALS ON PUCK LINE (+125) —
A lot of things had to fall into place for Montreal in Game 4, including killing off a four-minute power play that spilled into the overtime period. But the Lightning had a clear edge in all the offensive categories.
You want to see some analytics? Think about it – here is a team that had outscored Montreal 14-5 after the first three games, then proceeded to post a “Corsi For” figure of 59.8% as a team in 5v5 play, as well as an 61.9% Offensive Zone Start Percentage. These figures demonstrate superiority. Price held things together, but sooner or later that breaks down.
A real key here involves Tampa Bay’s edge in depth. The fourth line for the Bolts had a 64.7% Corsi (in 5v5), and they got the goal from Pat Maroon. If you agree that they are superior, and that they should have won Game 4, you would certainly see some value in these numbers.
