You have to kind of like the campaign on the part of Canelo Alvarez to pick off as much hardware as he possibly can. In pursuing the WBA “Super” light heavyweight title against Dimitry Bivol, he turned down the opportunity to fight at a “catchweight” because he wanted to contest this bout more legitimately.

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So Bivol carries the size advantage as these two clash at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, in what is a huge event as usual when Alvarez steps into the ring.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Dimitry Bivol Betting Lines

Canelo Alvarez -500

Dimitry Bivol +400

Over 10.5 Rounds -300

Under 10.5 Rounds +240

Official Weights — Alvarez 174.4 pounds, Bivol 174.6 Pounds

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How Did Alvarez Get Here?

Of course, Canelo (57-1-2, 39 KO’s) has only lost to Floyd Mayweather, and on his way up the ladder he has captured titles at junior middleweight, middleweight and even light heavyweight. Currently he holds all the belts (WBC, WBA, IBF and WBO) at super middleweight (168-pounds). last time out, he scored an eleventh-round stoppage of Caleb Plant. He has not fought since November.

Canelo has fought at the light heavyweight level only once, as he stopped Sergey Kovalev in eleven rounds in what had been a close fight on the scorecards (November 2019). Two years prior, he came out of his first bout with Gennadiy Golovkin with a draw, although most seem to think he should have lost the decision. He won the rematch a year later, and the expectation is that if Canelo wins, there will be a third fight between the two. Alvarez has mentioned that he could fight Oleksandr Usyk, the WBA-IBF-WBO heavyweight champ, if the bout could be made one pound over the cruiserweight limit.

How Did Bivol Get Here?

A native of Kyrgizstan, Bivol (19-0, 11 KO’s) grew up in Russia and is a veteran of 283 amateur bouts. In his seventh pro bout, he won the WBA interim light heavyweight title with a decision over Felix Varela. He’s got a couple of very solid wins, over Joe Smith Jr. and Jean Pascal.

Bivol has won his last six fights by decision. And they have been easy – over those bouts, he’s won them by an average of 8.5 per scorecard. For eleven of his last 13 fights, he has weighed exactly 174.5 pounds. For this one, he’s at 174.6.

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What Should We Expect From Alvarez?

Well, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Canelo elected to turn up the pressure; after all, you wouldn’t expect him to stand out on the outside and be on the end of Bivol’s jab. Remember, he is four inches shorter, and is giving up reach.

If Alvarez can get under that jab, he can find some success with body punching. But whatever he does, it would be most beneficial if he is the busier fighter. He has talked about being “patient,” but he can’t get TOO patient.

What Should We Expect From Bivol?

It would be surprising if Bivol went out and tried to slug with Canelo, even if he is naturally the bigger guy. So I’d expect that he will do what he does, which is to be the technical guy; the boxer who keeps Alvarez at bay with the jab and lands combinations when the situation arises.

Don’t expect Bivol to move around the ring a lot either; that’s really not the style he employs. He is a stand-up boxer, but he is defensive-minded, and defensively proficient.

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Alvarez vs. Bivol Predictions

Alvarez by Decision or Technical Decision -155

Alvarez by KO, TKO or DQ +250

Bivol by Decision or Technical Decision +650

Bivol by KO, TKO or DQ +1100

Draw or Technical Draw +1800

So, what will happen?

It’s often been said that the guy who is going to beat Canelo is someone who can use finesse to outbox him and frustrate him. And we imagine that is someone who can move around very well. Gee, are there a lot of guys around like that?

I don’t agree with that assessment anyway. I think that the guys who are most dangerous to Alvarez at this stage of his career are the ones who punch very well for a super middle or light heavy; the kind who will make him pay the price when he comes forward. The name of Artur Beterbiev comes to mind when exploring that category.

If you broke down various aspects of this matchup, you would probably have to conclude that Bivol has the edge in size, in defensive ability, and who knows – maybe even in power for this particular weight class.

Sure, you could give him check marks there, but that would not tell the story. The factor that can make up any differences for Canelo Alvarez is his “work rate.” He simply figures to be the busier guy here. And of course, we’re operating on the assumption that he does what many trainers suggest, which is that “when you’re short, get shorter.” In other words, get underneath Bivol’s jab and close the distance. Bivol isn’t a guy who’s going to run about the ring, so Canelo should have his opportunities.

Most importantly, from what I’ve seen Bivol, while a precision puncher, does not throw a lot with, as the cliche goes, “bad intentions.” As such, he is not the ideal guy to make Canelo pay when he gets close. All these fights he’s been winning with one-sided scoring – that tells me he has been able to make everything go his way. But do you honestly think Alvarez is going to stand there and let him dictate every second of every round? Not likely. So I’m thinking Bivol will see something he’s not been used to of late.

But I do indeed believe that Bivol’s attitude is that he’s going to take this the distance. That might sit just fine with Canelo, if he gathers strength as the fight progresses. That having been said, this is how we’ll play it:

Over 10.5 Rounds -300

Alvarez by Decision or Technical Decision -155