College Basketball Betting – We’ve Got a Big Ten Dog That Can Really Bark

Is there any question that the Big Ten Conference is the best league in the country right now?

Seven of its members are in the AP Top 25 poll, and that doesn’t even include traditionally strong programs like Michigan State and Indiana.

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Two of these ranked teams get together on Wednesday night, as #15 Iowa plays host to #25 Rutgers at Iowa City.

We think there is some value in this play, which you can take advantage of at HRWager.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Iowa Hawkeyes ATS Pick

Rutgers vs. Iowa Betting Report

Tip-off: 7:35 PM ET (Big Ten Network)

College Basketball Odds: Iowa -6.5

You may ask yourself, how does a team that is ranked #1 in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, #1 in turnover percentage, in the top twenty in three-point accuracy and even in the top fifty in two-point shooting, with tremendous ball movement (63% of field goals from assists, ninth in the nation), led by perhaps the best player in the country, lose four of its last five games?

Well, as we are talking about the Iowa Hawkeyes, it is for several reasons. One is that the opponents have been pretty good. The Big Ten is a rugged conference. Losing a pair of games to Indiana, as well as fourth-ranked Ohio State and sixth-ranked Illinois, isn’t anything shameful.

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Does that sound like a cop-out to you?

If you want to go into it further, the Hawkeyes can’t necessarily count defense as one of its strong suits. They don’t get out to the perimeter in any kind of an elite way (allowing 35.6% triples). They don’t force opponents into turnovers. They don’t hit the defensive boards all that well (ranked just 284th in the country). And you could say that they are sending opponents to the free throw line more than usual, which may be a sign of defensive weakness as well.

Luka Garza, who is a front-runner for the Wooden Award, is a good-enough point producer, to be sure, but sometimes he is a big factor on the glass and sometimes he isn’t. When these teams met previously (a 77-75 Iowa win), he had only four rebounds, although he converted eight of nine shots from the field.

It’s worth noting that Rutgers produced a lot of second chances, with 16 offensive rebounds in that January 2 game. And they appear to be one of those teams that could muscle up with Iowa. But the Scarlet Knights went just 4-for-12 from the line, and this has been a big problem for them. Rutgers is a 60% free throw shooting team, which makes them one of the worst in the country.

Interestingly though, they are better than 70% over their last four games. An d you have to admit they have been going in a more positive direction than the Hawkeyes, winning four games in a row.

Steve Pikiell took a four-win Stony Brook team and eventually built it into one of the more formidable “small conference” programs in the nation. He has turned things around at Rutgers, as he currently has his team ranked #25 in the latest Associated Press poll.

He gets some genuine scoring balance and his team takes care of the ball almost as well as Iowa does.

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Rutgers doesn’t necessarily sparkle in any single defensive area, but they are efficient, and they have 6-11 Myles Johnson, who has swatted away 14 shots in his last four games. Ron Harper Jr., whose father found success with the Cavs, Clippers, Lakers and Bulls, can pretty much shoot from anywhere, and at 6-6, 245, no one is pushing him around near the boards.

Pikiell’s team has consecutive wins over Indiana, Michigan State, Northwestern and Minnesota, none of whom are nationally-ranked, but gritty just the same. They’ve also scored wins over Illinois and Purdue,.who ARE in the rankings. And they have a bit of a killer instinct; having been embarrassed previously by Michigan State (68-45), they later came back and waxed Tom Izzo’s team 67-37.

They can hang in here.

The Play: RUTGERS +6.5

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Charles Jay
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