Yordenis Ugas surprised a lot of people when he came in on short notice and defeated Manny Pacquiao last August Many people who work the game from the inside weren’t shocked at all.

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In that fight, he was filling in for Errol Spence Jr., whose career might have taken a different trajectory had he gotten the opportunity. Unfortunately, injuries have befallen Spence of late, but he has a chance to get things back on the right track when he faces Ugas in a title unification fight in the welterweight division.

The scene is AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, and there are three belts on the line. Ugas holds the WBA title at 147 pounds, while Spence is the champion as recognized by the WBC and IBF.

Terence Crawford Lurking in the Background

The guy who is not in the picture is Terence Crawford, who holds the WBO championship and is considered by many to be the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world. And the winner of this bout will undoubtedly be put forward as a potential Crawford opponent. Premier Boxing Champions, the promoters of the fight, would probably prefer that Spence won, since he would most likely make for a more profitable matchup with Crawford.

Ugas is 27-4 with 12 KO’s, and he is currently on a four-fight winning streak. Spence is 27-0 with 21 wins inside the distance. Ugas, a Cuban refugee, won a bronze medal at the 2008 Olympics. Spence represented the U.S.at the 2012 Olympiad.

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Spence vs. Ugas Betting Lines

Here are the odds we are seeing for the fight. As you can see, Spence is the considerable favorite:

Errol Spence Jr. -550

Yordenis Ugas +400

Over 10.5 Rounds -300

Under 10.5 Rounds +235

What about Ugas?

Ugas caught Pacquiao at the right time and under the right circumstances. I wrote on these pages a while back that having to come in on short notice, with very little time to specifically prepare, actually presented less of a problem for Ugas than it did for Pacquiao, who might not have known his opponent that well and also had to go from prepping for a southpaw to getting ready for an orthodox opponent.

That’s not to throw shade on Ugas’ skills. He may not be a huge puncher, but he is a very good fundamental boxer, who can throw a nice, stiff jab out there. He’s not going to bedazzle anyone with his movement, but he’s enough of a strategist that he forced Pacquiao to engage in a boxing match, which is not what Manny wanted.

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What about Spence?

Spence is a guy who brings the whole arsenal to the table. I wouldn’t call him especially flashy, but he is extremely capable with his jab, which gives him the opportunity to control any fight he is in. He puts together punches, maintains a great work rate, and can really go to the body. So there aren’t any terrific weaknesses to be exploited.

You also can’t accuse him of being untested. He’s fought a number of very credible opponents consecutively, and this includes Mikey Garcia, Shawn Porter and Danny Garcia. These last three wins have all come by way of decision, and in the case of the fight with Porter, it was a struggle, with the former champ winning one of the scorecards.

The Potential Problem

The consensus among the boxing people I’ve talked to is that if anything is going to cause Spence to falter, it’s going to be the fact that he has been relatively inactive.

First he had a car accident that forced him to sit out fifteen months after beating Shawn Porter. Then, on the verge of a fight with Pacquiao, he suffered an injury to one of his orbital bones that has kept him out of action since December 2020. So a decisive decision win over Danny Garcia is the only fight he’s had in a little over 2-1/2 years.

Some have faith that he will bounce back, as he naturally did well against Garcia following the first layoff.

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Spence vs. Ugas Predictions

Obviously you never really know what the exact outcome is going to be, but these numbers give us an alternative way to go if we choose:

Errol Spence Jr by Decision or Technical Decision -150

Errol Spence Jr by KO, TKO or DQ +225

Draw +1800

Yordenis Ugas by Decision or Technical Decision +600

Yordenis Ugas by KO, TKO or DQ +1200

I look at this as a distance fight, which takes two of these props off the table. Another way I’m looking at it is that as much as Ugas deserves a lot of credit, and definitely belongs in this fight, whatever he can do, Spence can do a little better.

At the same time, do I want to lay the -550 with Spence, in which case I would be making a statement that he has more than an 85% chance of winning? I’m not sure I want to go that far with someone who’s fought once in 2-1/2 years.

Of course, if the risk factor is lower, I’ll be game for that. And we have the “exact outcome” prop to do that with. So we’re moving with these plays for the Errol Spence-Yordenis Ugas.

* Errol Spence Jr by Decision or Technical Decision -150

* Over 10.5 Rounds -300