NBA Betting – Valuable Insights on the NBA MVP Prop

When it comes down to it, what is a “Most Valuable Player” when it comes to the NBA, and what criteria should be used?

That’s something that should be explored, and we wonder if the people who are ultimately voting on it in the press are looking at things from the right frame of reference.

Who knows – maybe I’m not seeing it through the right frame of reference either.

It would seem that no one is going to get serious consideration if they aren’t with a playoff team. That much makes a lot of sense. After all, half the teams make it in, and in what is essentially a five-man game, if your efforts aren’t enough to get your team into the upper half of the league, you probably don’t deserve it.

But precisely BECAUSE half the teams get in, I think some serious thought should be given to waiting for the playoffs to end in order to determine a winner.

Don’t shout me down; it’s just a thought.

Should statistics, or even advanced metrics, be a principal criteria? Well, that certainly can work in baseball, where Mike Trout has proven that playoffs are far from necessary to win a guy the hardware. But basketball is a game requiring a lot more flow and interaction; what works in a fantasy league doesn’t necessarily work on the court.

An MVP should be able to be the key contributor to a team that is successful, just for starters. He would usually be someone who can make everybody else around him better, although we do recognize that sometimes, a guy just takes his team and puts it on his shoulders.

All that being said, here are the futures odds on winning the NBA Most Valuable Player award, as they are posted at AMERICA’S BOOKIE:

DAMIAN LILLARD +1150

GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO +900

JAMES HARDEN +500

JOEL EMBIID +500

KAWHI LEONARD +3500

LEBRON JAMES +200

LUKA DONCIC +900

NIKOLA JOKIC -110

STEPHEN CURRY +1750

DONOVAN MITCHELL +5500

Lillard’s candidacy (-1150) obviously involves his numbers, which on any given night can be that of a monster. But what makes him more legitimate than some of the others is that he has had to pick up the slack for teammates such as Jusuf Nurkic and CJ McCollum who have missed time with injuries. And so a Portland team that is short-handed is right in the thick of things in the Western Conference, just 2.5 games out of third place, last we looked.

I don’t think Giannis (+900) is going to get the consideration; I really don’t, even though some may feel he has the most dominant skills out there. He has won the award two years in a row and his team has greatly disappointed in the playoffs. And I think he’ll be penalized for something like that, because in many ways, it will be considered a reflection on him.

When I first saw Embiid (+500), I thought he had a skill set very much like Hakeem Olajuwon. That’s how well-rounded he is. He is a center, with the ability to dominate a game. He is a pure center during a period of time in which those guys are becoming an endangered species. He’s got some serious numbers (29.9 points and 11.5 rebounds, along with 1.4 blocks and 1.2 steals), and his team has managed to stay ahead of the much-hyped Brooklyn Nets in the East. He did recently tweak his knee, however, and could miss up to two weeks,and that would hurt his case a little.

Kawhi Leonard (+3500) just isn’t providing the buzz right now. But Donovan Mitchell (25.4 ppg,4.6 rpg, 5.5 apg) is the best player on the best team, as least in terms of the won-lost record (Utah), and to me is a lot better than +5500. But you know, they don’t pay for second or third place in this prop.

LeBron, priced at +200 at America’s Bookie, belly-ached about not winning the MVP last year, and maybe that doesn’t help him all that much here. Then again, maybe it does. Someone like him is usually going to be in the MVP discussion, and he’s been dealing with an injury to teammate Anthony Davis. But I would have thought he could have had the defending world champion Lakers in a better spot than to be behind Utah and Phoenix. In addition to that, he’s got a high ankle sprain, which doesn’t give this price any kind of real value.

There is a sentiment that Luka Doncic (+900) should have won this award last season. He’s the guy who really knows how to fill up the stat sheet (29 points, 8.4 boards and 9.2 assists per game) and he’s now a 37% shooter from three-point range. His heroics in last year’s playoffs in the bubble, while injured, was good advertisement for his talents. But his team may not make the playoffs. What then?

I’d say the same thing for Curry (+1750), who has won the award twice, but may not get to the post-season and may not finish above .500 with his Warriors.

You can’t say enough about the skills of Nikola Jokic, who checks in as the -110 favorite. Here is a center – a true center – who you can run your entire offense around. He is averaging frightfully close to a triple double (27.1 ppg, 11.2 rpg, 8.6 apg) and he’s shooting 42.5% from three-point range. Unilke Embiid, however, he is not a defensive intimidator, which is what you’d ideally want your center to be. And you would have thought the Nuggets, with him at the controls and coming off a season where they made the West finals, would have been further along. You could actually say they’ve underachieved.

The guy I’d vote for here is Harden (+500), and that’s a strange thing to say because he started out the season as a disgruntled guy in Houston going at it half-assed, which made him look like a candidate for LEAST valuable. But this Brooklyn team was not going to be a genuine contender for the title without him, not with Kyrie Irving earmarked for the point guard spot. Harden’s scoring numbers may not quite be what they were with the Rockets (25.3 ppg), but he leads the league in assists and brings together some great offensive parts with his unique court sense.

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Charles Jay
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