The new MLB regular season gets underway on Thursday, April 1 with all 30 teams in action. Following last year’s 60-game teaser, the 2021 MLB regular season returns to the full 162-game schedule. This opens the door to betting on a long list of season-long player props at your favorite online sportsbook.
Sifting through the 2021 MLB player props betting board, the following picks offer quite a bit of value in the posted betting odds for two of the top MLB teams.
Aaron Judge Total Home Runs
The betting odds for this player prop are set at -115 for the OVER/UNDER on 33.5 home runs.
Judge is already high on the list as a favorite to hit the most home runs in the Majors this season. Currently, he is third on the board at +1200 behind Pete Alonso (+800) and Mike Trout (+1000).
Any value in odds posted for Judge’s performance numbers in 2021 is based heavily on potential given his recent issues with nagging injuries. As part of his breakout season with the Yankees in 2017, he belted 52 home runs while playing in 155 games. That number dropped to 27 in each of his next two seasons while missing at least 50 games each year.
Go with the OVER in this prop if you see Judge playing at least 130 games this season.
Gerrit Cole Total Wins
As the ace of the Yankees’ starting rotation, the odds have been set at -115 for the OVER/UNDER on 16 wins this season.
Sticking with the same team, this is an interesting prop in Cole’s first full 162-game schedule with New York. He posted 19 wins in 2015 while pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates. The right hander then went 20-5 for the Houston Astros in 2019.
Through 12 starts for New York last season, Cole was 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. Assuming he can make at least 30 starts this season, the betting value for this player prop favors the OVER.
Cody Bellinger Total Home Runs
As one of the biggest sluggers for the defending World Series champs, the odds are set at -115 for the OVER/UNDER on 39.5 home runs.
Bellinger is entering his fifth season with the Dodgers at center field. He belted 39 home runs in his first season in the Majors over just 132 games. His career high came in 2019 with 47 dingers in 156 games. From a betting standpoint, his odds to hit the most MLB home runs in 2021 are set at +1600, which is tied for seventh on the list.
With the return to the full schedule, I like the value in Bellinger’s odds to go OVER this total. Sitting in a very favorable position in the Dodgers’ starting lineup, he could reach 50 this year.
Clayton Kershaw Total Wins
The projected win total for the Dodgers’ ace has been set at 13.5 with -115 odds for the OVER/UNDER.
Kershaw has not been at his best during spring training which could account for the lower than expected win total in this player prop. Going back over his storied career in Los Angeles, the lefty has won 14 or more games seven times in his last 10 seasons.
There is definitely some wear and tear with Kershaw heading into his 14th season. However, he probably has at least 14 wins left in that throwing arm for 2021 playing for baseball’s best team.