Almost half of the MLB 162-game regular season schedule is in the books heading into the pivotal month of July. The biggest lead among the six division title races is just four games, so there are quite a few teams with something on the line in the second half.

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The NL East is one of the tightest races on the board with four teams all within five games of one another. As expected, the New York Mets have lived up to expectations so far with the early lead. However, they are not going to be able to hide from the other three teams still hot on their tail.

Updated MLB NL East Division Winner Odds

New York Mets

NL East Odds: -260

The Mets are the clear favorites to win the NL East title after going 40-33 through their first 73 games. However, quite a bit of value in these odds is lost as the lowest scoring team in the NL. With an average of just 3.59 runs per game, New York is putting quite a bit of pressure on its excellent pitching staff.

Pitching still wins division titles, pennants and championships. With a team ERA of 3.04, betting against the Mets is at your own risk. Yet, the lack of balance on this team remains a major concern over the course of 162 games.

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Washington Nationals

NL East Odds: +600

The Nationals are second in the standings at 37-38 and they have the best record in the division (7-3) over the past 10 games. This is another team that has struggled at the plate this season as the 13th -lowest scoring team in the NL. Behind a team ERA of 3.86, this could work against Washington’s chances to close the gap in the standings.

I see the Nationals keeping things interesting into September. However, they will eventually run out of steam when it comes to closing the gap given their issues scoring runs on a consistent basis.

Atlanta Braves

NL East Odds: +550

Atlanta would be the best-value play in the NL East given its past experience in a tight division race. This pitching staff has issues that are hard to ignore with a team ERA of 4.30. However, it can cover that weakness with an average of 4.57 runs per game.

At 37-40 on the year, the Braves have to start winning more games then they lose over the second-half schedule. Yet, making up five games in the standings against the inexperienced Mets is not that hard to do.

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Philadelphia Phillies

NL East Odds: +1000

The Phillies appear to be the odd team out among the top four teams in the NL East standings. They are ninth in the NL in average runs per game (4.25) and ninth on the list in pitching with a 4.15 team ERA.

Much like Washington, Philadelphia can stick around for most of the season but more losses than wins will continue to pile up after going 36-39 over the first 75 games on the schedule.

Miami Marlins

NL East Odds: +6600

Miami is still within 10 games of the lead but there are just too many hurdles to clear to close that kind of gap. With an average of 3.9 runs a game, the Marlins’ solid 3.37 team ERA gets exposed in too many games. They might jump the Phillies to stay out of the NL East basement. Yet, that appears to be the ceiling for this team this season.

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