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The All-Star break is over, and that means baseball is back. Parlays give you the best chance to win on MLB. Numerous games on the schedule have a lot of wagering value for July 16, 2021.
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals
Best Bet: Padres ML (-134)
The Padres are one of the best teams in the National League. However, they are in jeopardy of falling out of the division title conversation. Washington has been hot throughout the year, but they are not on San Diego’s level.
Chris Paddack will throw for the Padres against Erick Fedde for the Nationals. This is a pick’em for the pitching battle, but the offense advantage belongs to San Diego. Paddack and Fedde are both 4-6 on the season.
Paddack’s ERA is slightly higher than Fedde’s, but he has thrown 13 more innings in 2021. San Diego is going to win this game because of their offense. The team is dominant at the plate, thanks to Fernando Tatis Jr.
Tatis is sensational, slashing .286/.364/.656 with 28 homers and 60 RBI. He is also joined by Manny Machado, who made the All-Star Game with Tatis. The Padres will have to contain Kyle Schwarber’s big bat, but I see this happening on Friday.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves
Best Bet: Braves ML (-125)
Charlie Morton will pitch for the Braves on Friday, and that’s why the team has an advantage. Morton’s contract option was not picked up by the Rays this season. He helped the team reach the World Series, and Tampa Bay did not choose to keep him on the roster.
Morton has been great for the Braves in 2021. He is 8-3 with a 3.64 ERA. He has fanned 114 batters in 99 innings. The veteran will pitch against Michael Wacha, who has an ERA near five.
Wacha is 2-2 with a 4.87 ERA. The Braves should be able to capitalize on his weak pitching in this contest. Ozzie Albies will have to take over for Ronald Acuna Jr. after his injury. Nevertheless, this is Atlanta’s game to win because of Morton.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5 (-129)
The Dodgers have not been able to get hot in 2021, and they are two games back in the NL West. This is a testament to the talent of this club. Los Angeles is notorious for starting the second half with a bang. I think this will be the case against the Rockies on Friday.
Los Angeles on the run line has better value than the moneyline in this parlay. They are playing the Rockies, who are 18 games back in the division.
Julio Urias will be on the bump for the Dodgers. He has been exceptional for the team in 2021 as a back-end starter. Urias is 11-3 with a 3.64 ERA and 119 strikeouts.
He will pitch against Antonio Senzatela, who will have a difficult time finding success on Friday. Senzatela is 2-8 with a 4.58 ERA. He does not have strikeout pitches in his arsenal. Friday’s contest should be a field day for Los Angeles.
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Best Bet: Cubs 1st 5 Innings (-150)
As late into the schedule as May 2, the D-Backs were two games over .500 at 15-13 and just two games from the lead in the National League West. They’ve gone 11-43 since then, and that is barely over 20%. They looked like they might come roaring into the break (we’re sort of half-kidding there) with three wins in four games, but a 22-1 pasting by the Dodgers sent them off the rails.
No, we are not going to make believe that Madison Baumgarner is having a banner season, despite the fact that he’s thrown a no-hitter (well, over seven innings anyway, on April 25).
5.73 ERA is bloated, but his WHIP ratio of 1.257 is hardly disastrous. He is still allowing less than a hit per inning, and his strikeout rate (9.6 per nine) is actually the third best he’s had in 12 seasons.
He went on the injured list after getting lit up for 16 earned in twelve innings over three starts. His shoulder was getting a bit worn out, but maybe you’ll see something better as he’s fresh. In one particular five-outing stretch, he allowed just 12 hits in 30 innings, with a WHIP of 0.47 and surrendering a slugging average of .218.
No one in baseball has more wins than Kyle Hendricks (11). He got off to a rocky start, but ten of his last 11 outings have been pretty good. And he’s been a beacon of strength and consistency as the Cubs have slid off the side of the earth with eleven losses in their last 13 games.
We can’t be sure what we’re getting with MadBum, but when he’s been bad he’s been pretty damn bad.
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox
Best Bet: Astros 1st 5 Innings (-130)
For what it’s worth, these two teams have the two highest on–base percentages in baseball.
Dylan Cease throws heat like three of the other White Sox starters (ex-Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel being the lone non-flame thrower in the bunch). His problem is control – last year he was the league-leader in issuing walks. He got roughed up by Houston on June 17, giving up seven runs before he exited in the fourth inning.
So when the Astros see him in some rundowns as “D Cease,” maybe they find some humor in that.
Lance McCullers, by the way, has given up more than three earned runs in only one start this season. He’ll keep the Astros right there.
Best MLB Player Props for Friday July 16th
As far as pitcher props are concerned, we’ll take a shot with the -145 price that Charlie Morton of Atlanta will top 7.5 strikeouts. We know he’s fully capable of more than one K per inning (10.6 per nine over the last five seasons) and the Rays are free and clear as the striking-out leaders in Major League Baseball.
