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Kurt Busch proved last week in Atlanta that you can’t count out the underdogs! The elder of the Busch brothers kept his younger brother in the rearview mirror while picking up the checkered flag and punching his ticket to the Cup Series Playoffs. Kurt checked in last week at +2800 while Kyle was one of the favorites at +725.
That being said, the Cup Series moves to New Hampshire this weekend for the running of the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 and Kurt Busch is not getting any love from this week’s favorite list. Kurt comes in at +3300 while Kyle once again is among the top-five favorites at +550.
That’s still not good enough to break the stranglehold Kyle Lawson has had at the top over the last few weeks. Larson is once again the favorite at +450 and he’s never won a race there in either the Cup or Xfinity Series.
There is only one Ford driver among the favorites this week and that’s Brad Keselowski at +700. News has now broken that Keselowski will be leaving Team Penski and moving to another team rumored to be Roush Fenway Racing with partial ownership.
But, for the rest of the year, he’s still at Penske and is the lone Ford favorite this weekend while being the defending New Hampshire race winner.
Here are the favorite drivers, through +700, to win the Quaker State 400 outright according to Intertops.
Kyle Larson +450
Denny Hamlin +500
Martin Truex Jr +550
Kyle Busch +600
Brad Keselowski +700
2021 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Preview
Date: Sunday, July 18, 2021, 3:00 pm EST
Track: New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Loudon, NH
Type: Oval, 1.058 miles
Race Distance: 318.458 miles, 301 laps
Defending Track Winner: Brad Keselowski
TV/Radio: NBCS / MRN
2021 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Predictions
Martin Truex Jr +550
I’m fading on Kyle Larson a bit this week and putting Martin Truex Jr ahead of him based on NASCAR stats. Larson has finished second three times at New Hampshire but all of his other runs (nine in a Cup Series car) have been 10th or worse. Truex, over his last ten races at the track, has seven top-ten and four top-five runs.
Kyle Busch +600
Kyle Busch hunted his brother Kurt down last week several times during the closing laps at Atlanta but was unable to make it past his brother. Atlanta and New Hampshire are two completely different tracks and Busch will not have to deal with a long tri-oval style front stretch. His closing rate should be pretty quick this week if he finds himself in second place. He’s won twice in his last ten starts at the track.
Joey Logano +1200
Joey Logano may end up being the surprise Ford winner this week. He’s finished 11th or worse at the track only one time dating back to 2014. He has two Cup Series wins at the track and last year he almost pulled off a 3 rd before ending the race in the 4th spot.
Others: I have to look at Kevin Harvick once again as somewhat of a value selection at +1200 due to not having a win this season. The plus is that Harvick has won three of the last six races at Loudon, NH. is +800 heading into the weekend. Matt Dibenedetto (+5000) just lost his ride at Wood Brothers Racing in 2022 so he may be out to win at all costs this weekend. He finished 5th and 6th respectively in his last two NH starts.
NASCAR Handicapping Statistics
Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Odds
Kyle Larson +450
Denny Hamlin +500
Martin Truex Jr +550
Kyle Busch +600
Brad Keselowski +700
Chase Elliott +800
Joey Logano +1200
William Byron +1200
Kevin Harvick +1200
Alex Bowman +1400
Ryan Blaney +1600
Christopher Bell +2500
Kurt Busch +3300
Tyler Reddick +5000
Matt Dibenedetto +5000
Aric Almirola +6600
Austin Dillon +6600
Ross Chastain +8000
Chris Buescher +12500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +12500
Cole Custer +12500
Daniel Suarez +12500
Chase Briscoe +15000
Ryan Newman +20000
Darrell Wallace Jr. +20000
Erik Jones +20000
Michael McDowell +25000
Ryan Preece +30000
Corey Lajoie +50000
Anthony Alfredo +50000
Justin Haley +100000
Quinn Houff +100000
James Davison +100000
Cody Ware +100000
Josh Bilicki +100000
Garrett Smithley +100000
BJ McLeod +100000
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