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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the ATL and Atlanta Motor Speedway in Hampton, Georgia for the Quaker State 400. A quick check of the stats from past races shows that Ford drivers have won five of the last five races at the track which would seem to indicate a Blue Oval driver would be a favorite this weekend – nope!
Kyle Lawson comes in as the lone favorite this week at +225 with Kyle Busch at +725. Larson has no Cup Series wins at the track and none in either the Xfinity or Camping World Truck Series. Busch has won at Atlanta twice in a Cup car with the last one coming back in 2013.
So why have oddsmakers faded on Ford this weekend? Because Kyle Larson and Chevrolet have been racking up wins in 2021 while Ford has struggled. Chevy drivers have racked up ten wins, Toyota has six wins, and Ford has four with the last one coming at Talladega in April.
That means that oddsmakers are leaning on the hottest Cup Series driver this week (Larson), along with Chevrolet and Toyota. The two brands have won ten of the last ten races combined. This may open the door for some value picks if you are a Ford fan! Here are the favorite drivers, none of which are Ford drivers, through +900 to win the Quaker State 400 outright according to Intertops.
Kyle Larson +225
Kyle Busch +725
Chase Elliott +800
Denny Hamlin +900
Martin Truex Jr +900
This will be the last season running on the old asphalt. The speedway has wanted to for years but drivers always protested saying it was one of the most fun surfaces to race on. However, that did not always translate to exciting races! Atlanta will start work on a repaving project that includes adding additional banking to the turns ASAP following the race weekend.
2021 Quaker State 400 Preview
Date: Sunday, July 11, 2021, 3:30 pm EST
Track: Atlanta Motor Speedway, Hampton, GA
Type: Quad-Oval, 1.51 miles
Race Distance: 400.4 miles, 260 laps
Defending Track Winner: Ryan Blaney
TV/Radio: NBCS / MRN
2021 Quaker State Predictions
Kyle Larson +275
Once again, the obvious favorite this week is Kyle Larson. The payoff is low but the odds are hard to ignore. Larson has made a Cup Series Career at winning on 1.5 and longer tracks. Eight of his ten wins have come on 1.5 mile or larger tracks. In seven Cup Series Atlanta races, he’s finished in the top ten four times and led 418 laps.
Denny Hamlin +900
Denny Hamlin won in Atlanta back in 2012 which is a long way to go back for a stat. However, in his last four races at the track, he’s finished 4th, 5th, 11th, and 4th respectively. This season he’s yet to win a race but he’s racked up 11 top-five runs and 14 in the top ten. He’s led more laps than any driver, 798, this season.
Kevin Harvick +1100
I’ve said this a few times about Kevin Harvick this season including last week! “Who would have ever thought that Kevin Harvick would be a value pick?” According to NASCAR stats, Harvick is the best driver over the last ten races at Atlanta. He’s finished 10th or better nine times in ten races with five top-five runs and two wins. He’s in a winning drought this year but Atlanta could change that.
Others: Chase Elliott is +800 heading into the weekend. Elliott racked up another win on a road course last weekend at Road America and seems to be getting in a groove. Brad Keselowski sits back at +1400. His last ten starts at Atlanta include has two wins and 9 top-ten finishes.
Odds to Win the Quaker State 400
Kyle Larson +225
Kyle Busch +725
Chase Elliott +800
Denny Hamlin +900
Martin Truex Jr +900
Kevin Harvick +1100
William Byron +1100
Ryan Blaney +1200
Brad Keselowski +1400
Joey Logano +1400
Alex Bowman +1400
Kurt Busch +2800
Christopher Bell +3300
Austin Dillon +5000
Tyler Reddick +6600
Ross Chastain +8000
Chris Buescher +10000
Aric Almirola +10000
Matt Dibenedetto +10000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +10000
Daniel Suarez +12500
Darrell Wallace Jr. +17500
Cole Custer +17500
Ryan Newman +17500
Erik Jones +20000
Chase Briscoe +20000
Michael McDowell +25000
Ryan Preece +50000
Corey Lajoie +100000
Anthony Alfredo +100000
Cody Ware +100000
Josh Bilicki +150000
Quinn Houff +150000
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