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The NASCAR Cup Series, NASCAR Xfinity, and ARCA Series are all converging on Lincoln, Alabama for the Geico 500 race weekend at Talladega superspeedway. Talladega is considered to be a track where anyone can win due to the quick lead changes towards the end of the race… and wrecks!
Long story short, wrecks happen at ‘Dega in a large-scale fashion. A one-car incident is rare as multi- vehicle wrecks are the norm. So much so that the term “The Big One” is used regularly.
The general idea is that a winning driver not only has to have a fast car… but they also have to survive the “Big One” wrecks. But, is ‘Dega a track where anyone can win? Even a long shot?
Yes and No. Of course, any driver can win on a race weekend. But stats matter when handicapping Talladega. If the “anyone” statement were true then race results would show that as being fact.
A quick look at the last ten Talladega Cup Series races shows the same names that we are used to seeing in Victory lane. Denny Hamlin, this week’s favorite at +650, won the last race. Before that, Ryan Blaney went back to back. Other two-time ‘Dega winners over the last ten races include Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano.
The other three winners are Chase Elliott, Aric Almirola, and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. Last year’s Cup Series Champ was Chase Elliott – he’s pretty solid! The only two drivers, over the last ten race winners at Talladega, that can be considered in the “anyone” Category are Almirola and Stenhouse. But, they both have two Cup Series wins.
Talladega may offer more opportunity for “long shots” but it seems the top drivers manage to regularly find a way to win. This week there is value deep down the favorites list! Here are the favorite drivers to win the Geico 500 outright according to Intertops.
Denny Hamlin +650
Joey Logano +875
Ryan Blaney +900
Brad Keselowski +1000
Chase Elliott +1000
2021 Geico 500 Race Preview
Date: Sunday, April 25, 2021, 2:00 pm EST
Track: Talladega Superspeedway – Lincoln, AL
Type: Tri-Oval, Asphalt, 2.66 miles
Race Distance: 188 laps, 500.08 miles.
Defending Track Winner: Denny Hamlin
TV/Radio: FOX / MRN
NASCAR Handicapping Statistics
2021 Geico 500 Predictions
Joey Logano +875
Joey Logano didn’t great in the virtual iRacing eNASCAR Pro Invitational Talladega race on Wednesday night. He finished 37th just ahead of Kevin Harvicks eight-year-old son Keelan who was one of the guest competitors. But I don’t think that effort translates to Sunday win a real car. Logano leads all active drivers in fantasy stats according to racing-reference.info over the last ten races. That includes two wins and finishing fifth or better five times.
Chase Elliott +1000
Chase Elliott has not won this season and he is the defending Cup Series Champion. He has one Cup Series win at Talladega and five top-ten runs in his last ten visits to the track. The one stat that is troublesome for Elliott in those same ten races is that he has wrecked out three times. If you take one of those wrecks out of his last four ‘Dega races then his finishes look much better; 8th , 5th , and the win at the Spring race in 2019.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +1600
Ricky Stenhouse Jr has two Cup Series wins and both came on Superspeedways – Talladega and Daytona. He’s always in the mix at ‘Dega and seems to run his best on these larger faster tracks. Stenhouse has moved from Roush Fenway Racing to JTG Daugherty Racing so if there is a downside it’s the slight dip in quality equipment but his big track talent could keep him in the running.
Others to Consider: I want to go with Denny Hamlin so much! But he’s not been able to seal the deal yet this season. That could change at Talladega this weekend but I’m fading on him and looking for better value this week. Speaking of, If there were to be a long shot winner I would have to go with Matt Dibenedetto at +5000. Talladega would be a great place for Wood Brothers to get their 100th Cup Series win.
NASCAR Fantasy Tips for Beginners
2021 Geico 500 Betting Lines
Denny Hamlin +650
Joey Logano +875
Ryan Blaney +900
Brad Keselowski +1000
Chase Elliott +1000
Aric Almirola +1400
Kurt Busch +1600
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +1600
Kevin Harvick +1800
Kyle Busch +1800
William Byron +1800
Alex Bowman +1800
Kyle Larson +2000
Martin Truex Jr +2000
Tyler Reddick +2200
Christopher Bell +2500
Austin Dillon +2800
Ryan Newman +3300
Ryan Preece +3500
Erik Jones +4000
Chris Buescher +4500
Matt Dibenedetto +5000
Darrell Wallace Jr. +5000
Chase Briscoe +6600
Michael McDowell +6600
Cole Custer +6600
Ross Chastain +7500
Daniel Suarez +7500
Harrison Burton +10000
Corey Lajoie +12500
Kaz Grala +12500
Anthony Alfredo +17500
BJ McLeod +17500
Quinn Houff +25000
Cody Ware +25000
Josh Bilicki +25000
Joey Gase +25000
Timmy Hill +25000
*Jennifer Jo Cobb +25000
Justin Haley +81000
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