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A lot of factors go into a totals play. Let’s explain what we’re looking at with a couple of the NBA “under” plays we are moving with on Tuesday.
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New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers Predictions
When: 7:05 PM ET
America’s Bookie NBA Odds: Cavaliers -3.5, Total 216.5
Don’t look now, but Andre Drummond is making his free throws.
Drummond, who has been a notoriously bad shooter at the line during his career, shooting 46%, has made 61% in the first three games of the 2020-21 season. Of course, it’s very, very early in the NBA schedule, but that is something the Cavs have to be happy to see.
Meanwhile, how is it possible that the New York Knicks could beat the Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points last time out? Well, it’s easy, if you can hold them to just 7-of-38 from beyond the arc, while making 16 triples yourself. That’s actually something the Knicks have been doing rather well in the early going – they have limited the opposition to just 25% from downtown. Tom Thibodeau, however, has a big job ahead of him – don’t make any mistake about it. His gospel throughout his NBA coaching career has revolved around defense. That’s been the case when serving as an assistant, and he also demonstrated that during his tenure as head coach in Chicago. In Minnesota, however, it didn’t work out too well for him.
You need the right kind of personnel, and that is what executive Leon Rose, the former agent, is going to try to get. But it is a slog of sorts. So right now they are defending well beyond the arc, and that’s a start.
Unfortunately for them, the Cavs don’t rely on three-point shooting to make things work. In the process of roaring out to a rather unexpected 3-0 start, Cleveland has taken fewer three-point shots than all but one NBA team. They’ve been pretty accurate; in fact, their 43.4% leads the league. But they do their best work on the inside, between Drummond’s activity in the paint and Collin Sexton’s ability to penetrate.
The truth is, neither of these teams actually toss up a lot of triples – the Cavs, as we mentioned, are 29th in the league, while the Knicks are 27th. With Drummond’s ability to prevent second shots, it creates something of an advantage. Injuries play a part too – Kevin Love and three-point marksman Matthew Dellavedova are not available for the Cavs, while the Knicks are missing several players, including rookies Obi Toppin and Emmanuel Quickley, who were being counted on to contribute.
Pick: UNDER 216.5 Points
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New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns Predictions
When: 10:05 PM ET
America’s Bookie NBA Odds: Suns -3, Total 223
I know what you might be thinking. Phoenix Suns. Devin Booker. Wild West Show.
The reality is that this team is taking a deliberate approach this season, more so than last, when they were 10th in the league in Pace. This season they are 23rd in that category, and you know, Monty Williams, who served as coach of the Pelicans for five seasons, was always a guy a guy who would rather take the more deliberate approach.
What’s different about the Suns’ lineup this year is that it contains someone with that New Orleans connection – Chris Paul, who is not a scoring machine (12.7 ppg), but is a honest-to-goodness floor leader (in fact, averaging close to ten assists). And you know that when you have him at the point guard, you are going to improve defensively. He may have lost a step on that end, but he is a nine-time NBA All-Defensive selection, and he has this team’s overall Defensive Rating up to fourth in the league at this moment.
So he’s changing the culture for the better, or at least that’s what everyone hopes – the Suns carried momentum into this season, as they won their eight games in the bubble, even though that was not enough to secure them a spot in the playoffs.
Pick: UNDER 223 Points
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