The NBA regular season is over, and it’s time for the play-in tournament for the first time in NBA history.
A reminder for the 2021 NBA play-in tournament structure. Seeds 1 through 6 in each conference are locked. The 7th place team plays against the 8th place team, with the winner making the playoffs as the 7 seed.
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9th place plays 10th place, with the winner of that game playing the loser of 7 vs. 8. Whoever wins that game is the 8 seed.
Let’s break down the first play-in games for both the East and the West and the best bets for each game.
#10 Charlotte Hornets at #9 Indiana Pacers Preview
Hornets vs. Pacers Picks
Betting Odds: Hornets +3.5 (-110) vs. Pacers -3.5 (-110)
The Hornets, losers of five straight games, find themselves down in tenth. The 34-38 Indiana Pacers will play host in the first play-in game of the week.
The Pacers boast balance on both ends, with a slight preference for offensive success. Indiana plays fast, second in the NBA in fastbreak points, and tends to drive to the hoop, third in points in the paint.
The Pacers have a strong perimeter defense, allowing the fourth-fewest threes per game. Indiana is highly susceptible to driving teams, allowing the most points in the paint in the league.
This identity means trouble for Charlotte in this one. The Hornets offense prefers to shoot the three, a top-ten team from deep. But, unfortunately, they’re a bottom-ten team stopping points in the paint and a weak defense.
Indiana has the edge on paper, and the bet here is the Pacers live to fight for the 8 seed.
#8 Washington Wizards at #7 Boston Celtics Preview
Wizards vs. Celtics Picks
Betting Odds: Wizards +1.5 (-110) vs. Celtics -1.5 (-110)
The Wizards clawed their way back into the Eastern playoff mix, going 14-5 since April 12.
Boston has been slipping thanks to the injury bug. Star wing Jaylen Brown is out for the season, while key contributors Marcus Smart and Robert Williams have struggled to stay on the floor.
The Celtics are league-average across the board, preferring to shoot the deep ball to get them ahead.
Washington plays at one of the fastest paces in the league, with Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook both driving to the hoop routinely.
While the Wizards’ defense isn’t strong, they do have success slowing down the three. This, plus the different directions each team is trending in, have us picking Washington to win on the road.
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#10 San Antonio Spurs at #9 Memphis Grizzlies Preview
Spurs vs. Grizzlies Picks
Betting Odds: Spurs +3.5 (-110) vs. Grizzlies -3.5 (-110)
The 33-39 Spurs find themselves five games back of the next closest team in the play-in tournament. As such, their road to the playoffs seems impossible.
The Spurs have a bottom-ten offense and an extreme weakness for allowing points in the paint.
They’ll be matched up against the Memphis Grizzlies, who should be able to handle the Spurs with ease.
No team scores more in the paint than Memphis. San Antonio is a prime first matchup in this tournament.
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#8 Golden State Warriors at #7 Los Angeles Lakers Preview
Warriors vs. Lakers Picks
Betting Odds: Warriors +6.5 (-110) vs. Lakers -6.5 (-110)
Golden State is in this spot thanks to Steph Curry, winner of the league’s scoring title. Curry’s averaging nearly 32 points per game, leading an offense third in the NBA in threes made.
The Warriors have a strong defense, top-ten in the NBA.
Their defense doesn’t quite match up with the Lakers, owners of a top-three defense in the league.
The defending champs find themselves in the play-in game due to poor health. LeBron James and Anthony Davis have missed nearly 70 combined games – but both are back now.
Davis and James remain some of the two best players in the NBA. They’re both back in the lineup now and should be able to win their way into the playoffs to defend their title.