As usual in the NBA’s Eastern Conference, there are a number of middle-of-the-road and lower-rung teams in the running for playoff spots. In fact, the only team you can really say is out of the picture is the Detroit Pistons.
As a result of a logjam between a whole bunch of teams, the Orlando Magic are just 2.5 games out of the #6 position in the East, and will likely be in the hunt up until the latter stages.
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They’re a little shy on talent right now, but they’ve been compensating for it in various ways. Can they slow down the Brooklyn Nets‘ express train to the top of the conference? The answer to that is something that can make you some money at America’s Bookie.
Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets Picks
Betting Odds: Nets -8 and 227.5 Points
Tip-off: 7 PM ET (Thursday)
What we’ve seen lately from the Magic has been somewhat surprising. They have been beaten up quite a bit by injuries, as they have been missing guys they were really counting on, like Aaron Gordon, Cole Anthony and Markelle Fultz.
Without firepower, what’s a coach to do? Well, Steve Clifford is not a guy you hear a whole lot about. But he’s managed to improvise with rosters that were lacking in marquee talent, both here and previously in Charlotte. His fallback plan centers around two things – defense and what they would refer to as “ball security” in the NFL.
But more succinctly, his teams don’t cough up the ball much.
Indeed, Orlando is fifth-best in the NBA in offensive turnover percentage. And as far as what they have done on the other end is concerned, they are only 15th in Defensive Rating, but a sensational second in Defensive Rebounding Percentage, pulling down 80% of the available boards. So in other words, when they stop a team, they finish the stop.
Even with limited resources, they won four out of five games going into the second end of a back-to-back against Detroit the other night. And that is where the biggest Orlando weakness reared its ugly head.
Against the worst team in the Eastern Conference, they shot just 37.5% in a 105-93 loss to the Detroit Pistons. And that include just 38% from TWO-point range. The Magic are the worst shooting team in the league right now, hitting 43% of their attempts.
What that has brought about is some value for folks who like to play totals, because they’ve played seven unders in their last nine games. And those games haven’t just gone under; they’ve gone WAY under – an average of 13.6 points below the total.
The Nets are at the opposite end of that totals spectrum. Through one stretch they had gone “over” in 17 out of 18, and they currently stand at 22 overs and ten unders. They have improved defensively, moving up in Defensive Rating four places from 30th, which is where they were after 13 games. Brooklyn is switching on picks a lot more after the arrival of James Harden, who is accustomed to the way assistant coach Mike D’Antoni ran his defense in Houston (and where we assume Steve Nash is getting his direction from).
The Nets have been on a roll, winning and covering seven straight, with five in a row on a west coast swing. That included, of course, the Lakers and Clippers, where they turned on the defense, with both of those games actually going under the total.
At the other end, the Nets have more than held up their end of the bargain. They are #1 in the NBA with a bullet in Offensive Rating, Effective Field Goal Percentage and points scored.
And much of this latest surge has happened without Kevin Durant, who has now missed five games with his hamstring injury and may not be back until right before the All-Star break. No matter, because Harden has been minding the store quite well.
And everybody’ pretty excited about fans finally being let into the Barclays Center, beginning with Monday’s win over Sacramento.
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Maybe the Nets can force this game over the total. Who knows; the Magic will probably do everything they can to reduce the number of possessions. But what secret formula do they have to slow down Brooklyn on offense?
And aside from recently-minted All-Star Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross off the bench, there isn’t a lot of punch. When you are starting James Ennis, Michael Carter-Williams and Al-Farouq Aminu, you don’t have much of a chance to trade punches with an opponent that shoots 50% from the field, with a lot of triples.
We don’t believe they can keep pace. So it’s the Nets….again.
The Play: BROOKLYN
