The Buffalo Bills will face off against the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football tonight. The Bills won the AFC East Division title last week, but they still are playing for something on Monday. With a win, the Bills will clinch the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
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Here are four ways to bet the game on Monday night.
Make sure you read our in-depth Bills vs. Patriots week 16 preview.
New England Patriots (-7)
I don’t believe the Patriots are going to win, but I think they’ll be able to keep it close. The Patriots haven’t scored a touchdown in their past two appearances.
This is uncharacteristic of any New England team that we have seen in past seasons. Cam Newton is very inconsistent.
One minute, he looks like a franchise quarterback. The next minute, he can’t complete a pass.
I think the Patriots will be within six because of their defense. Pro Bowl selection Stephon Gilmore is out for New England.
However, Bill Belichick, who has one of the best defensive minds in football, is still coaching this unit. He can create a scheme that will throw off Josh Allen and the Bills offense.
In the teams’ first meeting of the year, Allen only threw for 154 yards. He also turned the ball over once to the Patriots.
The Patriots are 12-1 ATS in their past 13 games as a home underdog. They’ll be 13-1 when time expires on Monday.
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Over 46.5 Points
The Patriots haven’t scored in their past two games. Despite this, I still refuse to take the under in this AFC East matchup on Monday night.
The New England offense will come alive at home against the Bills. Buffalo will lead the scoring effort, but New England will provide just enough support for this game to go over 46.5.
Buffalo is 10-4 against the over in 2020. Fifty-eight percent of bettors favor the over on Monday night.
Allen and the Bills offense can strike at any time. Newton has played his best in shootouts this season. If Newton is able to find a rhythm and go score for score with Buffalo, this game goes over early.
There is also a chance that New England continues its offensive drought from the past two weeks. I can’t see this happening again at home, though. Josh McDaniels will figure out a way for his unit to bounce back.
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Josh Allen – Over 1.5 TD Passes
Allen is the key to Buffalo’s offense. I think Belichick will find a way to keep his total yardage down, but Allen will still throw touchdowns.
Allen has thrown 30 total touchdowns on the season. He has thrown 16 touchdowns on the road. Allen is averaging over two touchdown passes per game.
The Patriots won’t have Gilmore, so the division champs will be able to attack this weak spot. I think this will hurt New England until it is able to make some halftime adjustments on defense.
The 26-year-old Allen has thrown over 1.5 touchdowns in 11 of 14 games this year. On the road, Allen has thrown at least two touchdowns in seven of eight contests.
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Cam Newton – Over 168.5 Passing Yards
If the Patriots want to compete with the juggernaut Bills, Newton is going to have to throw the football. Newton hasn’t been phenomenal by any means this season, but he is more than capable of hitting this total.
Buffalo is giving up 234.7 yards per game through the air. The Bills have a middle-of-the-road team when it comes to passing defense.
Newton has gone over 168.5 passing yards five times out of 13 tries this season. One of those games was against Buffalo in November.
The former MVP will manufacture an over against this passing yardage total on Monday night.
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