Odds aren’t fixed. They are constantly in flux, dictated by the organic events of football matches. It’s something that’s consistent across all sports, but also unique to sports when it comes to betting. For instance, some online casino games have fixed odds. Slots, roulette, baccarat, blackjack, and craps where odds are determined by RNG and the mechanics of the game – i.e., for a roulette wheel and a baccarat table, each outcome has fixed odds. 

These games are a cornerstone of iGaming platforms, with user bases worldwide looking for them. For instance, players in Canada will look for the best online casinos on review sites like Casino.org and focus on the RTP on these types of games, with the fixed odds giving, in theory, a statistically consistent basis on which to build strategies. These Canadian players will be playing games that have the same RTP as the Indian players playing the same game, but each iGaming platform has different games depending on the jurisdiction. However, not all casino games have fixed odds, with more ‘sport-like’ games like poker displaying organic odds changes like football matches.

To calculate these organic odds, bookmakers use a blend of data analytics, financial assessments, and market dynamics when deciding odds. For the Premier League title, key factors include team wages, expected goals (xG), and age profiles.

Financial power

A club’s wage bill often correlates with on-field performance. There has long been a clear pattern: the team that spends more generally wins more. In their book Why England Lose, often compared to Money Ball, Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski showed that wage bills generally had far more impact on a team’s performance than who they employed as head coach. Naturally, bookmakers take wage bills into account.

xG

xG assesses the quality of a team’s chances to score. Teams with higher xG values are considered more likely to score. For example, in the 2024-2025 season, Liverpool’s xG (both For and Against) has been far better than that of a mid-table team such as Bournemouth. (A strong xG For is around 1.8-1.9 per match.)

Age profiles

The average age of a team’s players can indicate its future performance. Younger squads may offer long-term promise; experienced teams might provide immediate results. Bookmakers consider these dynamics when setting odds. 

Market influences

Betting odds are also shaped by market behavior. High volumes of bets on Liverpool, for example, may influence bookmakers to adjust odds to manage risk. This means public perception and betting trends can influence who are considered favorites, sometimes independent of on-field performance.

Next season

The 2024-2025 title was decided relatively early – it wasn’t quite the last-day spectacle that Liverpool and Manchester City offered in recent years. But next season is likely to be closer, with Arsenal’s Mikel Arteta looking for his first trophy since the FA Cup in his debut season, and Pep Guardiola will be aiming to return City to the top after their first trophyless season since 2016-17. 

Guardiola will seek to find the best way to fit both Erling Haaland and Omar Marmoush, the Egypt-Canada dual citizen, into the team. Fans in the UK, USA, and Canada will be looking out for odds on the favourite to win the 2025-26 title, as well as odds for the top scorer, an award that both Haaland and Marmoush may both be shooting for. 

In the meantime, MLS fans can check out our weekly soccer picks.

Statistical trends in Premier League betting

Historical data provides insight into betting patterns and outcomes. The most common Premier League final score in the last 5 seasons has been 1-1 (per Gambling.com). The most common half-time score is 0-0. Home advantage plays a big influence on results, with an average win rate of 44% over the last 5 seasons. The season most affected by the pandemic showed how important home support was – in empty stadiums, the 2020/21 campaign featured the fewest home wins since the dawn of the Premier League in 1992 (when it was rebranded and split from the Football League). 

Other historical data, such as how often both teams score, how many goals are scored after 75 minutes, and the average number of cards per game, can influence bettors’ picks.

The impact of Leicester City’s surprise title win

Leicester’s unexpected Premier League title in 2016 had implications for bookmakers. With preseason odds of 5000-1, Leicester’s win led to huge payouts. The event highlighted the potential for extreme outcomes and the risks for bookmakers when setting odds. Fans are unlikely to see such odds for a comparable team anytime soon. Currently, Burnley (considered the least likely for the 2025-26 crown) are available at 2000, and Leeds, Brentford, and Wolves are available at 1000, showing that bookmakers are reluctant to see a repeat of 2016.

Asian handicap market

Asian handicap betting is designed to remove the draw as an outcome, simplifying the betting process to two possible results. The perceived stronger team gets a handicap to level the playing field. For example, if Liverpool is given a -1.5 handicap, they must win by two or more goals for a bet on them to win. Research suggests that while the Asian handicap market shares inefficiencies with traditional markets, it has unique characteristics, such as different return-on-investment profiles and variance in results. 

Last word

Grasping how soccer odds are shaped requires looking beyond the pitch. Stats, market patterns, and betting behavior all play a role. Odds aren’t just set by data models or team performance, but a product of a wide range of variables, from public sentiment to subtle statistical patterns. Bookmakers respond to what’s happening on the field but also to how bettors think and act. Casual fans may see odds as simple numbers, but more experienced betters and bookmakers understand they reflect deep analysis and psychological factors.