Who is excited for the start of the 202/21 Premier League campaign?
One of the EPL futures I always bet on is the Golden Boot winner. There’s always value in this market, as it’s tough to predict on an annual basis, but it makes watching the matches a lot more fun.
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First, let’s recap the top goal scorers from the last few Premier League campaigns.
Analyzing Past EPL Golden Boot Winners
In 2017/18, Mohamed Salah shocked everyone by scoring 32 goals.
In the last two seasons, no player has been able to hit the 30-goal milestone.
In 2018/19, Salah, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Sadio Mane were all tied for the Golden Boot with 22 goals. If you had backed any of these three players, you would have cashed.
Last season, Jamie Vardy was the top scorer with 23 goals.
I’m predicting that it’s going to take 25+ goals to win the 2020/21 Premier League Golden Boot. I also expect the winner to come from a top six team this season and not a recently promoted Premier League team.
Top Contenders to Win the 2020/21 Premier League Golden Boot
Every player in the EPL Golden Boot market is priced above 5/1 at BetOnline.
Here are the five players priced below 10/1:
Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) +550
Should Salah be the Golden Boot favorite? I’m not so sure.
Last season was the first time Salah failed to register 20 goals with Liverpool (19 Goals). He led the league in scoring the two campaigns before last season, though, so he’ll be popular with the public.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Arsenal) +600
Aubameyang has netted 22 goals for Arsenal in each of the last two seasons. He’s the lone proven goal scorer on the team and he’s going to have every opportunity to win his first EPL Golden Boot.
Harry Kane (Tottenham) +650
Kane won back-to-back Golden Boot awards during the 2015/16 and 2016/17 campaigns.
He scored 30 goals in 2017/18 as well, but that was the year Salah dominated offensively.
Kane has struggled with fitness the last two seasons, scoring 17 goals in 28 (1) matches in 2018/19 and 18 goals in 29 matches in 2019/20. He’s a proven goal scorer, but he needs to stay healthy.
Sergio Aguero (Manchester City) +700
Aguero won the Golden Boot during the 2014/15 season with 26 goals.
Since then, though, Aguero hasn’t been able to score 25+ goals in a season and he’s coming off his worst campaign since 2012/13 (12 Goals), as he only scored 16 goals in 24 (6) appearances.
I wouldn’t recommend betting on Aguero, as City have a deep rotation filled with goal scorers.
Timo Werner (Chelsea) +800
Werner has landed with Chelsea in the Premier League after an incredible campaign.
He scored 28 Bundesliga goals in 34 appearances for RB Leipzig in 2019/20. He was a big part of the reason Leipzig had Champions League success too, as he netted four UCL goals this season.
Werner is an interesting Golden Boot prediction, as Chelsea ranked #3 in goal scoring (69 Goals) last season. The problem for Chelsea was that they conceded 54 goals.
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Golden Boot Best Bet for 2020/21 EPL Season
I’m going with Werner at 8/1 odds. He’s the #1 striker for Chelsea and they scored a lot of goals last season, so I expect the youngster to fit right in and start producing early on.
With an opening week match against Brighton, Werner could get out to a fast start.
2020/21 Premier League Top Scorer Odds
Here are the odds for every player priced up at BetOnline:
Mohamed Salah +550
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang +600
Harry Kane +650
Sergio Aguero +700
Timo Werner +800
Raheem Sterling +1200
Anthony Martial +1400
Gabriel Jesus +1400
Jamie Vardy +1400
Sadio Mane +1400
Marcus Rashford +1600
Danny Ings +2000
Raul Jimenez +2200
Mason Greenwood +2500
Bruno Fernandes +2800
Alexandre Lacazette +3300
Roberto Firmino +3300
Tammy Abraham +3300
Christian Pulisic +4000
Hakim Ziyech +4000
Aleksandar Mitrovic +5000
Dominic Calvert-Lewin +5000
Heung-Min Son +5000
Riyad Mahrez +5000
Kevin de Bruyne +6600