Three MLB Player Props Predictions for Thursday, August 19th

I don’t know if there is any dissension in the New York Yankee locker room, but right now there doesn’t appear to be enough room for everybody.

Luke Voit led the major leagues in home runs last season, but he had minor surgery before the season, and in the meantime, the Yanks acquired both Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo, which created a logjam among star players. Voit came back and played while Rizzo was on the shelf with COVID, but now Rizzo is back, and Voit is apparently sulking.

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Rizzo started Wednesday, with one hit and two RBI’s, and with his history against Thursday’s opposing pitcher, there would seem a possibility you’d see him again. But as of this writing, no numbers appeared on him. However, there are odds on his would-be rival.

So we will discuss that, along with other things, as we bring you some winning props for Thursday’s rather limited schedule under the lights.

MLB Home Run Prop Pick (August 19)

Twins vs. Yankees Betting Report

LUKE VOIT (New York Yankees) OVER 0.5 HOME RUNS (+300)

Opponent: MINNESOTA TWINS (starter John Gant)

Time: 7:05 PM ET

Rizzo has hit Gant well for the limited times he has faced him, as he has gone 6-of-12 with a homer. And if player props numbers appear on Rizzo, who should examine them carefully.

Gant, who got the attention of many with an 11-1 record for St. Louis in 2019, had never pitched in the American League until just recently, so he has not squared up against Luke Voit.

We can tell you that his WHIP ratio isn’t all that good (1.529), but he’s only given up seven homers in 85 innings. So although it’s quite possible he would put Voit on base (as he’s allowed 58 batters in those 85 innings), he can at least thwart what Voit really does best.

While control is a problem, however, Gant has permitted opposing batters to hit just .202 on the road. And between the first and second innings, teams are hitting just .183 against him. Right-handed batters have hit two homers in 210 plate appearances.

In the month of August, Voit is a rather benign .243, with three homers in 41 plate appearances. He’s also hitting .194 at Yankee Stadium. And he’s not drawing many walks either.

Also consider whether Voit’s going to play at all, or play in a limited capacity. No one can be absolutely certain about all this, which potentially closes his window a little.

MLB Betting Odds

MLB Hits Prop Pick (August 19)

Brewers vs. Cardinals Betting Report

PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT (St. Louis Cardinals) UNDER 0.5 HITS (+165)

Opponent: MILWAUKEE BREWERS (starter – Brandon Woodruff)

Time: 7:45 PM ET

Paul Goldschmidt has been swinging a hot bat lately. He has two hits in five of his last six games, as well as eight of his last 12.

And what that does for us is set up a price that might be rather fortuitous.

You see, Brandon Woodruff has handled Goldschmidt pretty easily on an overall basis, allowing him just three hits in 18 career at bats. None of those hits have gone for extra bases; and Goldschmidt has not produced an RBI. But he’s struck out seven times. That’s just below 39%.

Woodruff’s been consistently a pretty good strikeout pitcher (over 10 per nine innings) and he has averaged just over six innings per start, which makes him practically a marathon man in this day and age.

What that also means is that he has a pretty decent chance of facing Goldschmidt at least three times, which minimizes the unknown factor of the bullpen.

Free MLB Predictions

MLB Strikeouts Prop Pick (August 19)

Marlins vs. Reds Betting Report

LUIS CASTILLO (Cincinnati Reds) UNDER 7.5 STRIKEOUTS (-125)

Opponent: MIAMI MARLINS

Time: 7:10 PM ET

Everybody seems to be striking out a lot in Major League Baseball lately, but the Miami Marlins are third in the majors in striking out.

Still, not sure that justifies an “over” play here. Luis Castillo’s strikeout rate is right at one an inning. And going down this Miami lineup, he has fanned one batter for every four he has faced, which through our own calculations relative to batters faced per inning and innings per start, have him around six strikeouts.

He’d have to get eight to win for the “over” bettors. Even though he fanned eleven over six innings the last time he faced Miami, that was two years ago. So that’s a bridge too far.

Learn how to bet on home run props and how to bet on strikeouts props.

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Charles Jay
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