Wagering on who hits a homer is a venture that is speculative at best, although the one thing we can be sure of is that hitters these days are swinging differently and going after the home run, because if they are capable of it, well, it makes sense according to the analytics. After all, there’s no defense against a ball hit over THE fence.

So here are some of the players for Monday’s games (July 18) who offer some value, as per our perception.

MLB Betting Sites

These MLB home run props are expressed in terms of over or under “0.5,” meaning that if the player hits a homer, it is “over” and if not, it’s “under.”

And remember that you can bet a lot of baseball props, every day of the week at the best online sportsbooks.

MLB Home Run Props Best Bets for July 19

Orioles vs. Rays Betting Report

MLB Home Run Props Odds:

Mancini Over 0.5 (+450) / Under 0.5 (-750)

The Play: OVER 0.5 (+450)

Mancini, who was so impressive in the Home Run Derby, is tied for the team lead in homers with 16. And he’s had some success in the past against Yarbrough, taking him deep three times (with eight RBI) in 21 career PA’s (plate appearances) against him.

So that is once every seven (14.3%), more frequently than his regular season frequency (once every 23.2 PA’s). Okay, so let’s conclude that he is a better bet than usual.

Yarbrough is not one of those “openers” manager Kevin Cash is so fond of using. In fact, he’s gone at least six innings in 14 of his 18 starts.

His home runs per nine isn’t glittering (1.4), and that figure has blown up to 2.1 over his last ten games (13 HR’s in 55-2/3 frames). Here’s what’s interesting – this season, Mancini’s OPS against the Rays is 1.500, and that includes four homers in 26 PA’s and 20 total bases for exactly a 1.000 slugging average.

Has he learned a lesson? As you may know, Mancini skipped the 2020 season while he was getting his chemotherapy. In 2019, however, Rays pitching slowed him to a crawl, as he was held to one RBI in 69 plate appearances, with 22 strikeouts. And remember – this was a season when he hit 35 homers.

So will the “real” Trey Mancini stand up?

I think he will. Bombs away!

Baseball Odds

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Betting Report

MLB Home Run Props Odds:

Bichette: Over 0.5 (+350) / Under 0.5 (-550)

Guerrero: Over 0.5 (+215) / Under 0.5 (-300)

The Plays: Bichette OVER 0.5 (+350) / Guerrero UNDER 0.5 (-300)

In the “why not” category, allow me to offer you two genuine “wunderkinds” playing for the Blue Jays.

Bo Bichette is in pretty good company. There are only six players in history who have recorded 30 homers, 40 doubles and 200 hits in their first 162 games in the major leagues. He’s one of them, and of the other five, there are three Hall of Famers (Joe DiMaggio, Ted Williams, Orlando Cepeda), a league MVP (Ryan Braun) and former Cleveland first baseman Hal Trosky, who went on to rack up 162 RBI a couple of seasons later.

Yes, it’s a small sampling, but he has gone 4-of-6 against Nick Pivetta, with three extra base hits, including a homer.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who had 31 homers and 78 RBI last we looked, has had success against Pivetta as well – three hits in five at bats, with a homer and three RBI.

These guys both swing for the fences. But Bichette may be the better bet because he doesn’t walk nearly as much (only 24 times, as opposed to 53 for Guerrero). Frankly, we’re not too thrilled with the odds on Guerrero for that reason. They’re short, so we’d much rather be on the other side of that one.

Baseball Picks

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Betting Report

MLB Home Run Props Odds:

Reynolds: Over 0.5 (+450) / Under 0.5 (-750)

The Play: UNDER 0.5 (-750)

Well, all we can tell you is that if you were looking for a guy to keep the ball in the park, left-hander Caleb Smith was not your guy right before the All-Star break.

Smith made a pair of starts against the two best teams in the NL West – the Dodgers and Giants – and gave up five homers in just seven innings. What was especially painful was that last one, as the Dodgers chased him with three HR’s before he even got anybody out in the second inning, en route to, well, a rout (22-1).

Over the first two months of the season, working mostly in relief, Smith yielded only three dingers in 33 innings. So this was a contrast. But it would be responsible for us to mention that with the Miami Marlins two seasons ago, he gave up a league-leading 33 round-trippers, which came out to 1.9 every nine innings.

So we’re thinking somebody’s going to go “yard” on Smith. But WHO?

Usually we would offer you Bryan Reynolds, who is Pittsburgh’s leading home run hitter (17) on a team that doesn’t hit a lot of them. But Reynolds, a switch-hitter who has a .969 OPS against left-handers, hasn’t produced that by hitting the ball out of the park, as he has just four homers in 96 at bats (and nine vs. southpaws lifetime in 311 plate appearances).

So we can’t hold all the confidence in the world in him.