Top NBA Player Props Picks for Wednesday, May 11th 2022

The 2022 NBA Playoffs are drawing ever closer to reaching the conference finals. The Phoenix Suns, Miami Heat, and Golden State Warriors are now just one win away from punching their ticket into the next round.

NBA Betting Sites

Wednesday’s games include the Milwaukee Bucks against the Boston Celtics and Memphis Grizzlies versus the Warriors, both of which should be excellent spectacles for the neutral fan.

Here are the best player props to bet on from these two games.

Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 13.5 Rebounds

Bucks vs. Celtics Predictions

Giannis is averaging 13 rebounds per game in this series, but he has only gone over the given total one time— granted, it was in the most recent game, but it was probably more of an aberration. The Bucks have been totally off their mark from outside in recent games, which has led to Antetokounmpo snatching more rebounds, as seen in Game Four when Milwaukee shot 9-27 from outside, and he had 18 rebounds. Expect the Bucks to make more shots and thereby limit Giannis’ output on the glass, which is probably for the best for his fans.

NBA Totals Odds

Marcus Smart Under 2.5 Threes

Smart’s three-point attempts per game have fallen from eight in the first round to just 4.3 in the current series, immediately limiting his chance at going over the total. Statistically, even though it is impossible to attempt .3 threes, he would need to make 69.8% of his attempts to go over the total, which is not sustainable long-term. Smart has also gone under 2.5 in all three of his appearances in this series as he deals with various injuries, so betting against the precedent would not be a smart idea.

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Steph Curry Over 28.5 Points

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Predictions

Curry has quietly been one of the best performers in these playoffs and is averaging 28.3 points per game in the current series. He scored 30 and 32 in the two most recent games and is primed to go over again, despite not taking a ton of shots overall. Memphis is playing extremely physical defense on the perimeter in an attempt to bump GSW’s guards off their spots and force them to put the ball on the floor. While this has worked somewhat, the Grizzlies can be overzealous, and Curry is an outstanding free-throw shooter that can reliably shoot over 90% at the line. If the Warriors are to win Game Five, as many believe, it will be on the back of Steph’s output.

NBA Totals Picks

Draymond Green Under 0.5 Threes

Draymond has attempted exactly one three-pointer in this series, which he missed. Expecting him to come in and jack up shots he would not normally take, especially in a close-out game, is unrealistic. Odds for this prop are fairly low, so this would be best combined in a parlay.

Dillon Brooks Under 23.5 Points + Assists

Brooks has been horrendously bad this series, averaging 6.7 points on 16.5% field goal shooting; he did manage to dish eight assists in his last appearance on the court, but he is taking some awful shots and playing largely to the detriment of his squad, which could cut his playing time Wednesday night.

About the Author
Kyle Parker
Kyle Parker
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Kyle’s goal is to break down games and betting performances with sharp, experience-backed analysis built on over 25 years in the industry. As a longtime bookie, oddsmaker, and line mover, he brings a unique perspective to every recap—highlighting key trends, standout plays, and what bettors can learn moving forward.