UFC 264 Picks, Odds and Betting Preview

This is one of the most hyped fight cards in recent memory.

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UFC 264 is on Saturday and will be hosted at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. There will be a full-capacity crowd to watch the Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier trilogy fight.

While the fight card lacks some depth, everyone will be tuning in for the main event.

McGregor vs. Poirier Odds and Picks

Fight Odds: McGregor (+105) vs. Poirier (-125)

McGregor (22-5) knocked Poirier (27-6-0-1) out at UFC 178 in 2014, but Poirier was able to exact some revenge back in January by winning the rematch by TKO. Who will win the third fight?

Notorious is only 3-3 since 2016 with wins against Diaz, Alvarez and Cerrone.

Does he have the motivation anymore after making bank from boxing? That’s a tough question to answer, but one thing’s for sure, Poirier has never tasted being champion in his career.

Poirier will be the hungrier fighter and I expect him to earn a title shot with a win on Saturday.

These guys match-up evenly on the feet, but Poirier will look to utilize leg kicks to win. He also has the edge in wrestling, as he averages roughly 0.5 takedowns every round.

He’s more active as well and if he avoids the knockout shot, he’ll grind McGregor down.

Best Bet: Dustin Poirier to Win (-125)

UFC Gambling Guide

Burns vs. Thompson Odds and Picks

Fight Odds: Burns (+130) vs. Thompson (-160)

Two UFC veterans will be fighting in the co-main event looking for a chance to fight Usman.

Gilbert Burns (19-4) was just knocked out by Usman back in February. Stephen Thompson (16-4-1) is on a two-fight win streak with wins against Luque and Neal. Both wins were by decision.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Y7VCAkLdS_I%3Frel%3D0

Thompson landed 138 significant strikes against Luque and 171 against Neal.

Burns had won six consecutive fights before losing to Usman, but he wasn’t fighting the top guys.

We’re getting a good price on Thompson here. If Thompson can avoid being taken down, he’s the more active striker, he has some power (7 TKO/KO wins) and he has a 4” reach advantage.

Thompson has 78% takedown defense, so he won’t be that easy to bring down to the mat.

Best Bet: Stephen Thompson to Win (-160)

Boxing Gambling Guide

Hardy vs. Tuivasa Odds and Picks

Fight Odds: Hardy (+110) vs. Tuivasa (-135)

Also on the main card, is a heavyweight fight between Greg Hardy (7-3-0-1) and Tai Tuivasa (11-3).

Hardy went 2-1 last year with wins against De Castro (Decision) and Greene (TKO). He lost his final fight of the year against Tybura (TKO). It was the first time Hardy has been stopped in a fight.

Tuivasa is on a two-fight win streak. He has defeated Struve (KO) and Hunsucker (TKO).

The Aussie has won 10 fights by TKO/KO and it’s likely he’ll score another one at UFC 264.

Neither guy has a ground game, so they’re going to be throwing in the middle of the cage. Hardy has a 5” reach advantage, but Tuivasa has fought much tougher competition.

Best Bet: Tai Tuivasa to Win -135

Expert Sports Handicappers

UFC 264 Parlay Bet

It looks like a lot of favorites are going to win at UFC 264. I’m not sure where to look if you’re looking for an underdog special. The better bet is to target some favorites on a plus money parlay.

Here’s my “safest” parlay for UFC 264:

O’Malley ML + Topuria ML + Zhumagulov ML (+102 Payout Odds)

This parlay basically pays even money and looks to be the best bet on the card.

These three favorites are the safest parlay you can bet. I’ll also have some parlays mixing in the three main card picks I made above to increase the payout odds.

Sean O’Malley is fighting Kris Moutinho who will be making his UFC debut and has a record of 9-4. It should be easy work for O’Malley, but I don’t agree with all of the hype behind him.

Ilia Topuria is undefeated (10-0 / 2-0 in the UFC) and will be fighting Ryan Hall. Hall has done well in the UFC, but he’s 36 years old whereas Topuria is only 24 years old.

The last pick is the riskiest. Zhalgas Zhumagulov is 0-2 in the UFC. His opponent is Jerome Rivera who is 0-3 in the UFC. One guy needs to win and Zhumagulov has looked better in his losses.

UFC 264 Fight Odds

Dustin Poirier (-125) vs. Conor McGregor (+105)

Stephen Thompson (-160) vs. Gilbert Burns (+130)

Tai Tuivasa (-135) vs. Greg Hardy (+110)

Irene Aldana (-124) vs. Yana Kunitskaya (+100)

Sean O’Malley (-835) vs. Kris Moutinho (+525)

Max Griffin (-190) vs. Carlos Condit (+150)

Michael Pereira (-177) vs. Niko Price (+141)

Ilia Topuria (-250) vs. Ryan Hall (+195)

Dricus Du Plessis (-118) vs. Trevin Giles (-106)

Jennifer Maia (-200) vs. Jessica Eye (+162)

Brad Tavares (-177) vs. Omari Akhmedov (+142)

Zhalgas Zhumagulov (-345) vs. Jerome Rivera (+260)

Alen Amedovski (-136) vs. Hu Yaozong (+110)

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