UFC 277 is on Saturday, July 30th 2022 and will be hosted at the American Airlines Center in Dallas.
In the main event, Amada Nunes has a chance to win the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship back from Julianna Pena after losing to her last December at UFC 269.
The co-main event features another rematch. Brandon Morena will fight Kai Kara-France for the interim UFC Flyweight Championship. Moreno won the first fight by decision at UFC 245 in December 2019.
Pena vs. Nunes Prediction
Fight Odds: Pena (+225) vs. Nunes (-265)
Pena (11-4) went 2-0 last year with two submission wins. Nunes (21-5) had a 12-fight win streak snapped in the loss to Pena last December. It turns out Nunes is still beatable, but she’s favored on Saturday.
Nunes was only taken down once by Pena in the first fight, but that was enough. Nunes has 82% TDD and needs to keep this fight upright where she has the edge with her striking.
Pena averages 3.36 SLpM and has good defense (2.02 SApM). Nunes averages 4.55 SLpM, but she was losing the striking battle (79 vs. 46) against Pena before being submitted.
Nunes is going to be angry in this fight and I expect her to finish Pena with her striking. Nunes has 13 TKO/KO wins, including one against Cyborg, so she has the power to finish anyone.
Best Bet: Nunes Wins ITD (-120)
Moreno vs. Kara-France Prediction
Fight Odds: Moreno (-210) vs. Kara-France (+180)
Moreno (19-6-2) has gone 1-1-1 in his last three fights, all of which were against Deiveson Figueiredo. This will be a good test for Moreno, as Kara-France has been improving a lot.
Kara-France is on a 3-fight win streak, which includes a KO win over Cody Garbrandt.
Moreno won by unanimous decision against Kara-France back in 2019, but the fight was close. Moreno won the striking battle (91 vs. 82) and neither fighter landed a takedown.
Moreno has never been stopped in a fight and Kara-France has only lost one UFC fight by stoppage, which was against Brandan Royval (submission) in 2020. This is a 5-round fight, though.
Kara-France lacks experience in championship fights and he may struggle in later rounds. However, we expect the fight to go the distance and will be betting on the round total.
These two stack up well. Moreno averages 3.54 SLpM (39% accuracy) and 3.31 SApM. Kara-France averages 4.84 SLpM (40% accuracy) and 3.51 SApM.
Best Bet: Over 4.5 Rounds (-160)
Lewis vs. Pavlovich Prediction
Fight Odds: Lewis (+115) vs. Pavlovich (-135)
Derrick Lewis (26-9-0-1) fights Sergei Pavlovich (15-1) in the long heavyweight fight on the main card.
Lewis is 5-2 in his last seven fights, but only 1-2 in his last three fights. He lost both fights by TKO/KO against Ciryl Gane and Tai Tuivasa. That could pose a problem for Lewis on Saturday.
Pavlovich is 3-1 in the UFC with all four fights ending in the first round. He lost his debut by TKO/KO against Alistair Overeem, but he has reeled off three consecutive TKO/KO wins.
Lewis has been durable in his fights even when he eventually gets knocked out. He has only been KOed once in the UFC in the first round and that was against Matt Mitrione way back in 2014.
I like Pavlovich to pick up the win, but the best bet is on the fight starting round 2.
Pavlovich averages 6.08 SLpM, but Lewis has solid defense (2.51 SApM). Dealing with Pavlovich’s reach (84” vs. 79”) will be tough, but Lewis has what it takes to survive a round.
Best Bet: Fight to Start Round 2 (-110) & Pavlovich ML (-135)
UFC 277 Underdog Special
I’m going with Rafael Alves (20-10) to upset Drew Dober (24-11-0-1) on the prelims.
Fight Odds: Dober (-230) vs. Alves (+190)
Dober is a veteran with lots of power. Dober is 4-3 in the UFC since 2019 and he has won all four of those fights by TKO/KO. However, two of those three losses were by submission.
Alves 1-1 in the UFC and he’s coming off a submission win against Marc Diakiese last November.
Dober will look to utilize his striking (4.40 SLpM) to finish his opponent, but Alves has the ability to lock in a submission at any time and he presents good value as an underdog at nearly 2/1 payout odds.
Best Bet: Alves ML (+190)
UFC 277 Parlay Predictions
I’ve constructed a UFC 277 parlay that offers a nice payout for readers this weekend.
Nunes ML + Pavlovich ML + Morales ML (+180 Payout Odds)
My top parlay features Nunes, Pavlovich and Michael Morales.
Morales (13-0) is undefeated and he won his UFC debut by TKO/KO against Trevin Giles. His opponent is Adam Fugitt (8-2) who will be making his debut in the UFC this weekend.
Neither fighter has a lot of experience, but Morales will be able to take care of business.
If you want to take a shot on a parlay bet this weekend, I recommend adding Alves to the above parlay, which will increase the payout odds to an impressive +711.
UFC 277 Betting Lines
Here are the latest UFC 277 betting odds:
Julianna Pena (+225) vs. Amada Nunes (-265)
Brandon Moreno (-210) vs. Kai Kara-France (+180)
Derrick Lewis (+115) vs. Sergei Pavlovich (-135)
Alexandre Pantoja (-190) vs. Alex Perez (+160)
Magomed Ankalaev (-540) vs. Anthony Smith (+420)
Alex Morono (+135) vs. Matthew Semelsberger (-155)
Drew Dober (-230) vs. Rafael Alves (+190)
Don’Tale Mayes (-190) vs. Hamdy Abdelwahab (+160)
Drakkar Klose (-210) vs. Rafa Garcia (+180)
Michael Morales (-600) vs. Adam Fugitt (+450)
Joselyne Edwards (-120) vs. Ji Yeon Kim (+100)
Nicolae Negumereanu (-115) vs. Ihor Potieria (-105)
Orion Cosce (-180) vs. Mike Diamond (+155)