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The final four races of the regular season and the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs are coming and there are some obvious favorites to win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship with the winningest driver this year leading the way. Kyle Larson has won four races heading into August and is a +250 favorite followed by 3-time winner Chase Elliott. Martin Truex Jr rounds out the top-five at +900.
There are a bunch of topics to cover quickly so let’s start with the top-five favorites to win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship through +900 according to Intertops.
Kyle Larson +260
Chase Elliott +650
Kyle Busch +800
Denny Hamlin +800
Martin Truex Jr +900
Complete odds are listed below.
End of the Regular Season and Playoff Openings
Only 16 drivers will be eligible to win the Championship title! Thirteen drivers have won this season before the NBC NASCAR break – NBC also broadcasts the Olympics which explains the two-week vacation from the track.
That leaves four more races left in the regular season in August and only three spots open for the playoffs with 13 winners locked in! Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, and Tyler Reddick are all currently in on points despite not having a win this season.
All three could be knocked out of the playoffs if the season sees 16 different winners and they are not among them. If a 14th driver grabs a win then either Reddick and Harvick could get booted. Before we get to the odds, here are the playoff standings heading into the last four races of the regular season.
Cup Series Playoff Standings*
1 Kyle Larson 4 Wins
2 Martin Truex Jr. 3 Wins
3 Alex Bowman 3 Wins
4 Kyle Busch 2 Wins
5 Chase Elliott 2 Wins
6 William Byron 1 Win
7 Joey Logano 1 Win
8 Ryan Blaney 1 Win
9 Brad Keselowski 1 Win
10 Kurt Busch 1 Win
11 Christopher Bell 1 Win
12 Michael McDowell 1 Win
13 Aric Almirola 1 Win
14 Denny Hamlin 0 Wins
15 Kevin Harvick 0 Wins
16 Tyler Reddick 0 Wins
NASCAR Cup Series playoffs cut-off
17 Austin Dillon 0 Wins
18 Chris Buescher 0 Wins
19 Matt DiBenedetto 0 Wins
20 Ross Chastain 0 Wins
21 Bubba Wallace 0 Wins
22 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0 Wins
23 Daniel Suarez 0 Wins
24 Chase Briscoe 0 Wins
25 Erik Jones 0 Wins
26 Ryan Preece 0 Wins
27 Ryan Newman 0 Wins
28 Cole Custer 0 Wins
29 Corey LaJoie 0 Wins
30 Anthony Alfredo 0 Wins
*Standings are complete through July 2021 and do not include the final four races of the regular season. Complete odds are listed below.
How the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs Work
The NASCAR Cup Series is made up of 16 drivers competing in an elimination-style tournament during the end of the season. Every race in the playoffs will still have a full field with every driver competing for the win.
There are four rounds with the first three all consisting of three races per round. The four lowest drivers will be eliminated after each of the first three rounds leaving four drivers still eligible to win the Championship at the last race of the season in Phoenix. Here’s how that breaks down.
ROUND OF 16
Sunday, Sept. 5 Darlington
Saturday, Sept. 11 Richmond
Saturday, Sept. 18 Bristol
ROUND OF 12
Sunday, Sept. 26 Las Vegas
Sunday, Oct. 3 Talladega
Sunday, Oct. 10 Charlotte Road Course
ROUND OF 8
Sunday, Oct. 17 Texas Motor Speedway
Sunday, Oct. 24 Kansas City
Sunday, Oct. 31 Martinsville
CHAMPIONSHIP 4
Sunday, Nov. 7 Phoenix
Three Brands Three Drivers
Since this preview is for a Championship that does not officially start for a month I thought I should go by the three manufactures and select one of the best options for each Chevrolet, Toyota, and Ford. Of course, there are a handful of regular-season races to go including the playoffs, so anything could change!
Chevrolet – Kyle Larson +260
Kyle Larson has four wins this season and has been a threat in all but a few races this year. Simply put, he’s been on fire and oddsmakers are well aware of his stats outside of the win column. He’s finished three times outside of the top twenty this season and he’s lead 1441 laps. He’s won on several kinds of tracks this year including a dirt track and road course. He seems to have a step up on his teammate and defending Cup Champion, Chase Elliott, this season.
Toyota – Denny Hamlin +800
Denny Hamlin has yet to win this season but he has been the most consistent Toyota driver in the Cup Series. He’s locked into the playoffs on points alone if there are less than 16 different winners by the end of the regular season. Yes, Martin Truex and Kyle Busch both have won this year but Hamlin beats them on top-fives and top-ten runs. All of that being said – don’t count out that all three of the Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) drivers mentioned here might go deep into the playoffs to the Championship race.
Ford – Joey Logano +1000
Joey Logano may end up being the surprise Ford winner this season after the dramatic slide that Kevin Harvick has taken in 2021. Team Penske, like JGR, could have some drivers heading deep into the playoffs this season but Joey Logano seems to be the more reliable when compared to teammates Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney. Ford has been off all season long and without Harvick being a weekly contender the problems for Blue Oval drivers have been highlighted.
2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds
Kyle Larson +260
Chase Elliott +650
Kyle Busch +800
Denny Hamlin +800
Martin Truex Jr +900
Joey Logano +1000
Brad Keselowski +1000
Alex Bowman +1200
William Byron +1400
Kevin Harvick +1600
Ryan Blaney +1700
Christopher Bell +2000
Kurt Busch +3000
Aric Almirola +5000
Austin Dillon +8000
Matt Dibenedetto +10000
Tyler Reddick +10000
Ross Chastain +12500
Michael McDowell +15000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +20000
Daniel Suarez +20000
Cole Custer +25000
Chris Buescher +25000
Ryan Newman +25000
Erik Jones +30000
Darrell Wallace Jr. +40000
Chase Briscoe +40000
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