College Basketball
College Basketball · Friday 13 November
Arizona vs Auburn Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on Arizona. Our number leans to the Wildcats by 3.5 points, and we bet at 5.
The Arizona Wildcats are -122 and the Auburn Tigers +102 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 52.6% for Arizona and 47.4% for Auburn. Our number gives Arizona 56.1%, so the gap is 3.5 points toward the visitor, short of our 5-point threshold. The price is close enough to our number that it holds no bet.
How 56.1% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Every game counts, regular season and postseason, except those at a neutral site. Auburn played 10 of those and Arizona 12, so they are in neither half.
The Tigers went 14-4 at Neville Arena, a 77.8% home win rate over 18 games. The Wildcats went 9-1 on the road, a 10.0% road loss rate over 10 games. The midpoint is 43.9% for Auburn and 56.1% for Arizona. Ten road games clear our 5-game minimum, but they are a thin base. One more Arizona loss away from home would have moved our number a long way.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -122 and +102 the two come to 104.5%. With it taken out, Arizona is 52.6% and Auburn 47.4%.
This season so far
Our number reads 2025-26 only. Auburn is 2-0 in 2026-27, both games at home, and last beat App State 75-53 on Monday 9 November. Arizona is 2-1 with no road games yet, and last beat Northern Arizona 90-59 on Tuesday 10 November. None of that is in the method. Neither are the summer’s roster changes, which in college basketball can turn over much of a team.
The AP Top 25 Week 2 poll, dated 9 November 2026, has Arizona at No. 12 and Auburn unranked. The method does not use rankings either.
Auburn at home, Arizona on the road
At home the Tigers scored 87.8 points a game and allowed 75.5, a margin of 12.3. On the road the Wildcats scored 83.8 and allowed 75.9, a margin of 7.9. Both halves of the method come from teams that won most of the time in these settings.
The halves the method leaves out point the same way. Arizona at home went 16-1, scoring 89.6 and allowing 64.4, a margin of 25.2. Auburn on the road went 2-8, scoring 78.8 and allowing 86.1, a margin of -7.3. On neutral floors Arizona went 11-1 and Auburn 6-4.
The season around it
Arizona finished 36-3 in the Big 12, scoring 86.2 a game and allowing 69.4, a difference of 16.8. The Wildcats won 25 games by 10 or more and lost one by that much. They went 5-2 in games decided by 5 points or fewer. In the NCAA tournament they beat Long Island 92-58, Utah State 78-66, Arkansas 109-88 and Purdue 79-64, then lost to Michigan 91-73 in the Final Four.
Auburn finished 22-16 in the SEC, scoring 83.0 and allowing 78.8, a difference of 4.2. The Tigers won 14 games by 10 or more and lost 8 by that much. They were 3-4 in close games and played 3 overtimes. They won the NIT, beating South Alabama 78-67, Seattle U 91-85, Nevada 75-69, Illinois State 88-66 and Tulsa 92-86 in overtime.
The teams met once. Arizona won 97-68 in its own arena on Saturday 6 December 2025. That game sits in Arizona’s home half and Auburn’s road half, so it is in neither half of our number.
Pick: No bet
No bet. The gap is 3.5 points toward Arizona against a threshold of 5. The method has no adjustment for the strength of the opponent. A 36-3 team against a 22-16 team is exactly where a 52.6% price can be right and our 56.1% can be the number that is off.
The line read Arizona -122 and Auburn +102 on 12 November 2026 at 23:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so it has not moved since opening.
What kills the bet
A longer Arizona price makes this a bet. With Auburn at +102, Arizona becomes a bet at -107 or longer. Arizona is a bet at -104 or longer whatever Auburn is priced at.
Auburn cannot become the bet. At any price where our number would clear the market by 5 points, the market gives Auburn under 40%. The method never bets a side priced under 40%, because on underdogs its number has run above what those teams then did.
Check the injury report and lineups before tip-off.
The total and the spread
The total is 159.5, over -110 and under -105… no: over -110 and under -110. Auburn’s home games went over 159.5 in 11 of 18, a 61.1% rate, and averaged 163.3 points. Arizona’s road games went over in 7 of 10, a 70.0% rate, and averaged 159.7. Across all games, Auburn went over in 20 of 38 and Arizona in 19 of 39.
The average of the two venue rates is 65.6% for the over. With the margin out, the market prices the over at 50.0%, so our count leans to the over by 15.6 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Auburn +2.5 at -115 and Arizona -2.5 at -105, unchanged from the opening line. Auburn’s home results would have covered +2.5 in 15 of 18 games. Arizona’s road results would have covered -2.5 in 9 of 10. Averaged, Auburn +2.5 lands 46.7% of the time against 51.1% priced, a gap of 4.4 points toward Arizona -2.5. That is a lean on the same side as our moneyline number, and below the threshold. No bet on this game.
Arizona at Auburn, Friday 13 November, 9:00 PM ET, Neville Arena, Auburn. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 12 November 2026, 23:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and postseason. Ranking: AP Top 25, Week 2 poll of the 2026-27 season (ESPN, dated 9 November 2026). 2026-27 records: ESPN game page, read 12 November 2026, 23:32 UTC.