College Basketball
College Basketball · Friday 13 November
Ohio State vs UConn Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on Ohio State at +350. Our number gives the Buckeyes 28.6%, the price gives them 21.3%, and our rule never backs a side the market puts under 40%.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are +350 and the UConn Huskies -455 at DraftKings for Ohio State at UConn. With the margin out, that is 21.3% for Ohio State and 78.7% for UConn. Our number is 7.3 points higher on Ohio State, and we bet at 5. The long-shot rule takes the bet away.
How 71.4% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own building and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Every game counts, regular season and postseason, but neutral-site games are in neither half. UConn played 11 of them and went 10-1. Ohio State played 6 and went 2-4.
UConn went 15-2 at home, an 88.2% home win rate over 17 games. Ohio State went 5-6 on the road, a 54.5% road loss rate over 11 games. The midpoint is 71.4% for UConn and 28.6% for Ohio State.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -455 and +350 the two come to 104.2%. Taken out, UConn is 78.7% and Ohio State 21.3%.
A 7.3-point gap would clear our threshold of 5. It does not count here because the method has no adjustment for the strength of the opponent. On underdogs its number has run above what the teams then did. Below 40% we do not trust the gap, and Ohio State sits at 21.3%.
This season so far
UConn is 3-0 in 2026-27, 2-0 at home, and beat Wagner 83-41 on Monday 9 November. Ohio State is 2-1, has not played on the road, and beat Marshall 84-74 the same night. UConn is No. 4 in the AP Top 25 Week 2 poll, dated 9 November. Ohio State is unranked.
None of that is in our number. The method reads 2025-26 only. It cannot see roster turnover over the summer, and in college basketball that turnover is large.
UConn at home, Ohio State on the road
At home UConn scored 79.7 points a game and allowed 62.6, a margin of 17.1. Ohio State on the road scored 74.1 and allowed 72.3, a margin of 1.8.
These are the halves the method leaves out. UConn went 9-3 on the road, scoring 73.6 and allowing 67.8. Ohio State went 14-3 at home, scoring 85.5 and allowing 72.8. The Buckeyes’ home and road records are far apart: 82.4% wins at home against 45.5% away.
The 2025-26 season
UConn finished 34-6 in the Big East, scoring 76.6 a game and allowing 65.2, a difference of 11.4. The Huskies won 20 games by 10 or more and lost one by that much. In games decided by 5 points or fewer they went 10-1. Their tournament run went through Furman 82-71, UCLA 73-57, Michigan State 67-63 and Duke 73-72, then Illinois 71-62 in the Final Four. Michigan beat them 69-63 in the national championship.
Ohio State finished 21-13 in the Big Ten, scoring 79.3 and allowing 72.6, a difference of 6.7. The Buckeyes went 4-6 in games decided by 5 or fewer. They won 12 by 10 or more and lost 4 by that much. TCU beat them 66-64 in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
The teams did not meet in 2025-26, so no head-to-head game is in our number.
Pick: No bet
No bet. The gap is 7.3 points toward Ohio State, against a threshold of 5, but the market gives Ohio State under 40%.
The line read UConn -455 and Ohio State +350 on 12 November 2026 at 23:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices and has not moved.
We think -455 is about right for this game. Our 71.4% for UConn comes from two samples of 17 and 11 games, with no account of who the opponents were. UConn ended last season one win from a title and starts this one ranked No. 4. The market’s 78.7% includes that, and our two rates do not.
What kills the bet
For UConn to become the bet, the price has to drift. UConn is a bet at -198 or longer, whatever Ohio State is priced at. With Ohio State held at +350, UConn becomes a bet only at +128 or longer. Both are a long way from -455.
No Ohio State price makes the Buckeyes a bet under this method. At any price that gives them enough of a gap, the market still has them under 40%, and the long-shot rule applies.
Check the injury report and the lineups before tip-off.
The total and the spread
The total is 147.5, over -110 and under -110. UConn’s home games went over 147.5 in 6 of 17, a 35.3% rate. Ohio State’s road games went over it in 5 of 11, a 45.5% rate. UConn’s home games averaged 142.3 points and Ohio State’s road games 146.4. Across all games the counts were 14 of 40 for UConn and 19 of 34 for Ohio State.
Averaged, the over lands 40.4% of the time against 50.0% priced, a lean of 9.6 points to the under. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is UConn -10.5 at -102 and Ohio State +10.5 at -118. It opened at the same number. UConn beat that line in 10 of 17 home games. Ohio State beat it in 9 of 11 road games. Averaged, UConn -10.5 lands 38.5% of the time against 48.3% priced, a gap of 9.8 points toward Ohio State +10.5. It leans the same way as the moneyline gap and carries the same weakness, with no adjustment for opponent strength and samples of 17 and 11. It is a lean only. No bet on this game.
Ohio State at UConn, Friday 13 November, 7:30 PM ET, PeoplesBank Arena, Hartford. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 12 November 2026, 23:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and postseason. Ranking: AP Top 25, Week 2 poll of the 2026-27 season (ESPN, dated 9 November 2026). 2026-27 records and injuries: ESPN’s game page, read 12 November 2026, 23:32 UTC.