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Soccer Predictions 
Chicago is 7-2 at home against losing teams. Take the Sky at -5 or shorter.
No book had a line on this game when I read the market at 16:15 UTC on 21 September, so this piece gives the price I would pay. My number is Chicago by 6.4.
The number
My figure compares like with like. Neither team has a winning record, so I take Chicago’s home games against losing teams and Toronto’s road games against losing teams. Half the difference between the two average margins is the number.
Chicago is 7-2 in those nine home games and wins them by 8.7 points on average. Toronto is 4-4 in its eight road games and loses them by 4.1. Half the difference is Chicago by 6.4.
I play a side when my number and the price are at least a point apart. That makes Chicago a bet at -5 or shorter and a pass at -5.5 or longer. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Chicago 71.1%.
Both teams are losing
Neither side arrives in form. Chicago has lost five in a row and is 3-7 over its last ten, losing by 12.0 a game. Toronto has lost six in a row and is 1-9 over its last ten, losing by 14.9.
Chicago’s last two were heavy: 110-80 at home to Washington on 17 September, and 106-81 in Atlanta on Saturday. Toronto lost 106-69 at home to New York on Sunday.
The case against: Toronto has won both meetings
This is the fact that argues hardest against the pick. Toronto won 111-104 in Chicago on 27 May and 85-68 at home on 7 June.
Two games, both in the first five weeks of the season, prove little on their own, and Chicago’s home record against losing teams is nine games of evidence against two. I read the head-to-head as a warning and keep the side.
Chicago at home, Toronto on the road
The Sky are 10-11 at home and lose there by 1.2 a game. The Tempo are 4-16 on the road, scoring 87.5 and allowing 97.0: a 9.5-point average loss. Set against Chicago’s 1.2-point average loss at home, that is a gap of 8.3 points.
Chicago has had two days off since Saturday. Toronto has had one since Sunday.
The total
With no total posted there is nothing to bet. Chicago’s games have a median total of 181 this season and Toronto’s 179. Over the last ten, Chicago’s have averaged 173.0 and Toronto’s 174.7.
The recent averages sit four to eight points below the season medians, and I would want to see where the book opens before saying anything about it.
Pick: Sky -5 or shorter
Pick: Chicago Sky, at -5 or shorter. My number is Chicago by 6.4. No line had been posted when this was written, 21 September 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
What would change it: a line of Chicago -5.5 or longer is a pass. The number rests on nine and eight games, and Toronto’s 4-4 includes a 32-point loss.
Toronto Tempo at Chicago Sky, Tuesday 22 September 2026, 8:00 PM ET, Wintrust Arena. Results: ESPN, read 21 September 2026, each final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game. ESPN matchup predictor read 21 September 2026. Every WNBA game: WNBA predictions.
