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Our number has Baylor by 8.6. The line is 10. No bet.
Baylor is a 10-point favourite over Colorado at DraftKings, up from 8.5 at the open. Our number is Baylor by 8.6. The gap is 1.4 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3. This one falls short.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Baylor is 3-4 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 0.9 points a game across 7 games. Colorado is 1-6 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 18.0 a game across 7 games. The difference is 17.1 points. Half of it, rounded, is 8.6, in Baylor’s favour.
Seven games a side is thin. Three of the fourteen are from 2026: Baylor’s 36-19 home win over Louisiana Tech, and Colorado’s two road games.
Colorado on the road
The road sample is what makes Baylor the favourite in our number too. Colorado lost at Houston 36-20, at TCU 35-21, at Utah 53-7, at West Virginia 29-22 and at Kansas State 24-14, all in 2025. This season it won 14-13 at Georgia Tech on 3 September, then lost 41-7 at Northwestern on 19 September.
Baylor’s home record against FBS teams is a losing one. It lost 38-24 to Auburn, 27-24 to Arizona State, 55-28 to Utah and 31-24 to Houston in 2025. The wins were 35-34 over Kansas State and 30-3 over UCF, then 36-19 over Louisiana Tech this season.
The two samples point the same way, and the market has gone slightly further than we do. That is a 1.4-point disagreement, less than half the threshold.
2026 so far
Baylor is 2-1. It lost 17-16 to Auburn at a neutral site on 5 September, beat Prairie View A&M, a team outside the FBS, 44-3, and beat Louisiana Tech. Against its two FBS opponents it has scored 26.0 a game and allowed 18.0.
Colorado is 2-1 as well, with a 52-21 home win over Weber State, a team outside the FBS. Against its two FBS opponents it has scored 10.5 a game and allowed 27.0.
This is a Big 12 game. Neither team has played a conference game this season.
Last season
Colorado went 3-9 in 2025 and lost by 9.6 points a game. It was 0-5 on the road. Baylor went 5-7 and lost by 1.5 a game.
The two teams did not meet in 2025, and have not met this season.
The price
Baylor opened at -8.5 and is -10 now, read 24 September 2026 at 04:28 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 1.5-point move toward Baylor. Baylor is priced at -112 on the spread and Colorado at -108.
The moneyline has Baylor at -395 and Colorado at +310, from -290 and +235 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Baylor to win 76.6% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Baylor at 80.3%.
All three measures agree on the winner. Ours puts the margin 1.4 points below the market’s.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the side. The gap is 1.4 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 14 games, split 7 and 7. A number this close to the line is a pass, however the samples read.
What changes it
A line move. At Colorado +12 the gap is 3.4, and Colorado becomes a bet; at +11.5 it is 2.9, still a pass. On the other side, Baylor becomes a bet at -5.5, where the gap is 3.1.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 53.5 and is 55.5 now, over and under both -110, as read at DraftKings. That is a 2-point rise.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Colorado’s games went over 55.5 in 6 of 14, and Baylor’s in 8 of 13. Colorado’s two FBS games this season produced 27 and 48 points; Baylor’s produced 33 and 55.
Pass on the total at 55.5. Neither sample moves far from half.
Colorado at Baylor, Saturday 26 September, 12:00 PM ET, McLane Stadium, Waco. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:28 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23-24 September 2026. Neither team is ranked in the AP Poll, Week 4, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
