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No bet. Incarnate Word has one road game against an FBS team, too few for our number to price this one.
Texas State is a 29.5-point favourite over Incarnate Word on DraftKings, the same number it opened at. The method needs at least 4 games on each side before it will price a game, and Incarnate Word has 1. So the method makes no bet here.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Texas State is 4-3 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 5.0 points a game across 7 games. Incarnate Word is 0-1 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 28.0 in its only game. The difference is 33.0 points, and half of it would be 16.5. With 1 game on the road side, that figure is arithmetic, not a price.
What the method has to go on
Incarnate Word is not an FBS team. In 2025 and 2026 together it has played one FBS opponent: a 48-20 loss at UTSA on 13 September 2025. Every other game on its record, including all three this season, came against teams outside the FBS.
So the method has almost nothing to go on for the visitor. One game proves little, and a 28-point loss at UTSA is the whole of the road side of our number.
The home side is firmer. Texas State beat Eastern Michigan 52-27, UL Monroe 31-14, South Alabama 49-26 and North Texas 49-35 at home. It lost 48-41 to Troy, 52-20 to James Madison and 31-26 to UTSA. Its largest home win against an FBS team in that span was 25 points, and the spread asks for 30.
2026 so far
Texas State is 1-2, and all three games were against FBS teams. It lost 59-7 at Texas and 31-26 to UTSA, then beat North Texas 49-35 at home on 19 September. It has allowed 41.7 points a game.
Incarnate Word is 2-1: 76-14 over Oklahoma Panhandle State, a 38-28 loss at Northern Arizona, and 30-23 over Houston Christian on 19 September. None of those opponents is in the FBS, so none of them is in our number.
This is a non-conference game.
Last season
Texas State went 7-6 in 2025 and won by 7.5 points a game, and finished with a 41-10 win over Rice on 2 January 2026 at a neutral site. Incarnate Word went 5-7 and won by 0.2 a game, against a schedule with one FBS team on it.
The two teams did not meet in 2025 or 2026.
The price
Texas State is -29.5 and was -29.5 at the open, read 24 September 2026 at 04:29 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. Both sides of the spread are priced at -110.
The moneyline has Texas State at -4500 and Incarnate Word at +1700, unchanged from the open. With the margin removed, that prices Texas State to win 94.6% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Texas State at 88.9%.
Everything here has Texas State winning. How much it wins by is the question the spread asks, and one game from 2025 cannot answer it.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the spread. Incarnate Word has 1 road game against FBS teams in 2025 and 2026, and Texas State has 7 home games against them. One sample holds fewer than 4 games, so the method has too little to price the game, whatever the line.
The arithmetic above gives Texas State by 16.5, against a spread of 29.5. It is shown so the method can be checked. It is not a pick.
What changes it
More FBS games for Incarnate Word. Until its road sample reaches 4 games, the method makes no bet on Incarnate Word, at any line.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you look at this game.
The total
The total is 63.5 and was 63.5 at the open, over and under both -110, as read at DraftKings.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Texas State’s games went over 63.5 in 9 of 15. Incarnate Word’s one FBS game went over, with 68 points. Texas State’s three games this season produced 66, 57 and 84 points.
Pass on the total at 63.5. Nine of 15 is close to even, and one game says nothing about Incarnate Word.
Incarnate Word at Texas State, Saturday 26 September, 6:00 PM ET, UFCU Stadium, San Marcos. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:29 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23-24 September 2026. Neither team is ranked in the AP Poll, Week 4, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
