Indiana vs Michigan Best Pick, Prediction and Odds - ScoresAndStats.com Skip to content
Scores&Stats
ES
CFB · Saturday 24 October
XFacebookWhatsAppTelegramRedditEmail

Indiana vs Michigan Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 23 Oct 2026

Our number has Indiana by 4.4. At +7.5, take Michigan.

No. 6 Indiana is a 7.5-point favorite at Michigan at DraftKings. Michigan opened at +6.5. Our number is Michigan +4.4, so the gap is 3.1 points on Michigan’s side, and the threshold for a bet is 3.0. The call clears the rule, though not by much.

Indiana vs Michigan prediction: what the prices say

The spread is Indiana -7.5 at -102 and Michigan +7.5 at -118, read 23 October 2026 at 03:12 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. Michigan’s side of the spread carries the heavier price. That is the cost of the extra half point.

Michigan opened +6.5 and is +7.5 nowMichigan's line, from the open to nowpickopen +6.5now +7.5Negative numbers mean Michigan is giving points. The line has moved 1 point toward Indiana.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-23 03:12 UTC.

The moneyline is Indiana -290 and Michigan +235. A book builds a margin into its prices, an extra that makes the two sides add to more than 100%. With the margin taken out, the market gives Indiana a 71.4% chance to win and Michigan 28.6%. ESPN’s FPI is further toward Indiana, at 82.2% to 17.8%. The moneyline is context here. Our method stakes the spread.

How Michigan +4.4 is reached

Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road. It counts FBS opponents only, over 2025 and 2026 together. Bowl and playoff games are played at neutral sites, so neither split includes them.

Michigan is 9-2 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 12.7 points a game across 11 games. Indiana is 7-0 on the road against FBS teams, winning by 21.6 a game across 7 games. Half the difference is Indiana by 4.4, which is Michigan +4.4 as a spread. Against +7.5, that is the 3.1-point gap.

Both samples clear the 4-game minimum the rule sets. Indiana’s is the thinner of the two, at 7.

Moneyline implies Indiana 71.4 percent, Michigan 28.6 percentChance to win the game, as pricedIndiana 71.4%Michigan 28.6%From DraftKings's moneylines, Indiana -290 and Michigan +235, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-23 03:12 UTC.

This season so far

Indiana is 6-1 and 3-1 in the Big Ten, scoring 36.6 points a game and allowing 12.9, a margin of +23.7. Against FBS teams it is 5-1 at +18.5 a game. Its other win was 55-0 over Howard, a team outside the FBS. Most recently it lost 19-15 at home to Ohio State on 17 October.

Michigan is 4-2 and 1-2 in the Big Ten, all six games against FBS teams. It scores 22.7 and allows 16.2, a margin of +6.5. It beat Penn State 21-18 at home on 17 October.

2026 point margin in every game, Michigan and Indiana2026: point margin in every game so farMichigan4-2, +6.5 a game+1+7+35-1-6+3Indiana6-1, +23.7 a game+36+55+38+6+32+3-4Coloured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 22 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull.

Records, conference standing and last week’s results sit outside our number. Only the home and road games feed it. On this season’s full margins, Indiana looks like the side the market is pricing.

Michigan at home, Indiana on the road

Michigan went 5-1 at home in 2025 and is 4-1 there this season. This season’s four home wins were 13-12 over Western Michigan, 17-10 over Oklahoma, 52-17 over UTEP and 21-18 over Penn State. The loss was 20-19 to Iowa on 26 September. Most of those games were close, and the 12.7-point average still holds up.

Indiana went 5-0 on the road in 2025 and is 2-0 there this season. It won 47-15 at Rutgers on 3 October and 20-17 at Nebraska on 10 October. Five of the seven road games are from 2025, so the road half of the number is mostly last season’s Indiana.

The method leaves out the other two halves. Michigan went 4-2 on the road in 2025 and lost 20-14 at Minnesota on 3 October. Indiana went 7-0 at home in 2025 and is 4-1 at home this season.

Last season and the meetings

Indiana went 16-0 in 2025, 15-0 against FBS teams, scoring 41.6 and allowing 11.7, a margin of +29.9. Its three postseason wins were 38-3 over Alabama on 1 January 2026, 56-22 over Oregon on 9 January and 27-21 over Miami on 19 January. All three were at neutral sites and sit outside the road split.

Michigan went 9-4 in 2025, with a margin of +7.2 a game. It lost 41-27 to Texas on 31 December 2025, also at a neutral site.

2025 point margin in every game, Michigan and Indiana2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedMichigan9-4, +7.2 a game+17-11+60+3+14-18+17+11+5+2+25-18-14Indiana16-0, +29.9 a game+13+47+73+53+5+10+25+50+45+3+24+53+3+35+34+6Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 22 October 2026.

Indiana and Michigan have not played each other in 2025 or 2026. No meeting is in our number.

Pick: Michigan +7.5

Michigan +7.5 at -118, DraftKings via ESPN, read 23 October 2026 at 03:12 UTC. The gap is 3.1 points against a 3.0-point threshold. Michigan opened at +6.5.

It rests on 11 Michigan home games and 7 Indiana road games. Michigan’s half is the larger sample. Indiana’s half is unbeaten and leans on 2025.

What kills the bet

The line. Michigan stays a bet down to +7.4. At +7 the gap falls under the threshold, and the call becomes a pass. Indiana would need to be -1.4 or shorter to be the bet.

The risk is this season’s form. Indiana’s FBS margin this season is +18.5 against Michigan’s +6.5. The moneyline puts Indiana at 71.4% and FPI at 82.2%. Our number trusts two seasons of home and road games over that.

Availability is not stated here. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total

The total is 42.5, down from 52.5 at the open. The over is -115 and the under -105, at DraftKings at the same read time.

Game totals for Michigan and Indiana against 42.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 42.52030405060708042.5Michigan9 of 19 over 42.5Indiana13 of 21 over 42.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 22 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-23 03:12 UTC.

Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Michigan’s games went over 42.5 in 9 of 19 and Indiana’s in 13 of 21. This season Michigan’s six games produced 25, 27, 69, 39, 34 and 39 points. Indiana’s six FBS games produced 68, 38, 52, 62, 37 and 34.

No bet on the total. Our method stakes the spread, and these figures are a count, not a measurement.

Indiana at Michigan, Saturday 24 October, 12:00 PM ET, Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 23 October 2026, 03:12 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025 and 2026 seasons, checked against Nucleus. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 8, 2026. Injuries: ESPN game page, read 23 October 2026, 03:12 UTC; nothing here states who is available.