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Indiana at Rutgers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 29 Sep 2026

Our number has Indiana by 13.9. At +24.5, take Rutgers.

No. 6 Indiana is a 24.5-point favourite at Rutgers at DraftKings, up from 23.5 at the open. Our number is Indiana by 13.9. The gap is 10.6 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.

Rutgers is 3-5 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 4.6 points a game across 8 games. Indiana is 5-0 on the road against FBS teams, winning by 23.2 a game across 5 games. The difference is 27.8 points. Half of it is 13.9.

Indiana’s five road games are all from 2025. It has played all four of its games this season at home.

Indiana on the road

The spread asks whether Indiana wins by 25 or more. It did that in two of its five road games against FBS teams: 55-10 at Maryland and 56-3 at Purdue.

The other three were 20-15 at Iowa, 30-20 at Oregon and 27-24 at Penn State, margins of 5, 10 and 3.

Rutgers at home has lost by more than 24 once in eight games, 56-10 to Oregon in 2025. This season it lost 37-21 to Massachusetts and 42-35 to USC there.

2026 so far

Indiana is 4-0, all at home. Against FBS teams it has scored 39.7 a game and allowed 13.0, and the most recent of those games was the closest, 29-23 over Northwestern on 25 September.

Rutgers is 1-3. Against FBS teams it is 0-3, having scored 25.7 a game and allowed 35.7. Its one win was 58-7 over Howard, which is not an FBS team.

2026 point margin in every game, Rutgers and Indiana2026: point margin in every game so farRutgers1-3, +5.2 a game-16Massachusetts-7Boston College-7USC+51HowardIndiana4-0, +33.8 a game+36North Texas+55Howard+38Western Kentucky+6NorthwesternColoured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 23 September pull.

This is a Big Ten game. Indiana is 1-0 in the conference, Rutgers 0-1.

Last season

Indiana went 16-0 in 2025 and won by 29.9 a game. Its last three games were 38-3 over Alabama, 56-22 over Oregon and 27-21 over Miami on 19 January 2026.

Rutgers went 5-7 and lost by 3.2 a game. The two teams did not meet in 2025 or so far in 2026.

2025 point margin in every game, Rutgers and Indiana2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedRutgers5-7, -3.2 a game+3+28+50-10-3-19-46+3-22+15-33-4Indiana16-0, +29.9 a game+13+47+73+53+5+10+25+50+45+3+24+53+3+35+34+6Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026.

The price

Indiana opened at -23.5 and is -24.5 now, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 1-point move toward Indiana. The Rutgers side is priced at -118, Indiana’s at -102.

Rutgers opened +23.5 and is +24.5 nowRutgers's line, from the open to nowpickopen +23.5now +24.5Negative numbers mean Rutgers is giving points. The line has moved 1 point toward Indiana.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 17:02 UTC.

The moneyline has Indiana at -2400 and Rutgers at +1200, from -2800 and +1300 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Indiana to win 92.6% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Indiana at 96.6%.

Moneyline implies Indiana 92.6 percent, Rutgers 7.4 percentChance to win the game, as pricedIndiana 92.6%Rutgers 7.4%From DraftKings's moneylines, Indiana -2400 and Rutgers +1200, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 17:02 UTC.

All three measures make Indiana the winner. The disagreement is the margin: 13.9 points against 24.5.

Pick: Rutgers +24.5

Rutgers +24.5 at -118. The gap is 10.6 points against a 3-point threshold.

It rests on 13 games, split 8 and 5. Indiana’s five road games are the thinner half, and two of them were wins by 45 and 53.

What changes it

The price has room. Rutgers stays a bet down to +17. At +16.5 the gap is 2.6, and the call becomes a pass.

Indiana has not played a road game this season, and five games from 2025 prove little on their own. Availability is not stated on this page. Check the injury report before you bet.

The total

The total opened at 53.5 and is 56.5 now, over -105 and under -115. That is a 3-point rise.

Game totals for Rutgers and Indiana against 56.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 56.52030405060708056.5Rutgers9 of 14 over 56.5Indiana7 of 18 over 56.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 23 September pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 17:02 UTC.

Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Indiana’s games went over 56.5 in 7 of 18, and the Rutgers games in 9 of 14. That is 16 of 32. Rutgers’s three FBS games this season produced 58, 49 and 77; Indiana’s produced 68, 38 and 52.

Pass on the total at 56.5. Sixteen of 32 is a coin toss.

Indiana at Rutgers, Saturday 3 October, 8:00 PM ET, SHI Stadium, Piscataway. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 5, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.